Where coming into the season, it was probably 90/10 that Donovan Edwards would enter the draft (the Don was basically saying "Imma be Marshall Faulk this season") and 70/30 Rod Moore would, as well... those numbers have come way down 3 weeks in, with Edwards still trying to get in gear and Moore still not ready to play at all.
I'd say it's at least 50/50, maybe better, that both of those guys are back next season.
And I would say the odds of Harrell, McGregor and Paige being back for a 5th year have each ticked up slightly, although I'd still say it's sub-50/50 on Harrell and Paige.
I would also say that the odds of JJ going pro were dented slightly this last week. Still think it's 75-80% this is it for him, as long as the BGSU game was just a one-off glitch. But Drake Maye and McCarthy, who were the consensus #2 and #3 QB's in the draft heading into the season, have each hit speedbumps, while guys like Michael Penix and Bo Nix have continued their trajectories, Quinn Ewers has resumed his, and Shedeur Sanders has begun to state his case. The pecking order behind Caleb Williams is more muddled than it was a month ago.