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75 days to Michigan Football: Andrew Gentry potential breakout season

Andrew Gentry is four years from high school and entering his junior season at Michigan.
Last year's "Swiss army knife" is battling for a starting spot at right tackle, and if he wins the job, the former top 100 recruit could be a breakout star.
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Recruiting Michigan football visitor preview: June 14-16

Michigan football will host six official visitors this weekend in Ann Arbor, along with two prospects who will be making unofficial visits.

Previewing the recruiting weekend ahead and breaking down where the Wolverines stand for each one:

24 Heures du Mans..for the race guys here

This race is like New Year’s Day used to be for me with the bowl games. My favorite race of the year by far. I’m all supplied up so I can watch as much of the race as I can, only breaking for bathroom trips and walking Quinn. I’m even using Door Dash for the first time today, which is going against my philosophical opposition to food delivery services that charge restaurants a significant fee for their service as well as the fees customers pay. It’s a shakedown in my opinion. Always use the restaurant’s own delivery service rather than these National delivery companies. The profit margins are so small in the restaurant business, that these services like Uber Eats fees really do more harm to establishments than any good they may provide. I just talked myself out of using door dash even though DiLorenzo’s Tomato pies (it’s a Philly/Jersey thing) doesn’t deliver due to daily hour to 2 hour wait lines to have the best tomato pie and thin crust pizza around.

Back to the race. If you’re looking for an American team to root for other than the GM Cadillac team (I just can’t root for GM) root for Penske racing. The French have been dicking them over for years just because they are old europe smug elitists. Also, the Alpine team has one of those Mustang GTD super cars in the race. Being a Ford guy, I’ll be glued to the broadcast for any coverage of that car..which they just showed passing 2 cars in an apex turn move! Wow!

Hope you guys are watching. GT and GT3 team road course racing is my favorite racing circuit!

Go Penske! Win and stuff it up their tight French derrières!

Recruiting Mentioned in another thread but one guy I’m expecting to see a big move

RB Jasper Parker.

In town this weekend and I could see a scenario where Michigan gets the lead coming out of the weekend. I can’t predict whether it’ll be a scenario where he commits but, as I said earlier in the week, he and Donovan Johnson are two guys they can move on here in quick succession.

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Video Good Afternoon, Michigan Football; How much will potentially playing OSU twice water down The Game?

Former Wolverine Jerry Diorio joins the show and gives his thoughts on the possiblity of UM & OSU playing more than once a season and how that will effect the rivalry. Jerry gives his opinion on recruiting and selects three keys for the upcoming season for the Wolverines as well.
Breakdown
Open 00:00-3:05
Kainoa Winston 3:06-9:35
WR recruiting 9:36-20:29
Ewers or Gabriel 20:30-23:00
UM/OSU playing more than onnce 23:01-32:50
Keys to season 32:51-45:58
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NIL - considering rates of return, smart money, dumb money and Michigan's early approach.

Once again there's a segment of online fans that think Michigan or a section therein is showing incompetence and they've had it. This time its NIL dollars and recruiting of blue chip players.

Emerging in my mind as I watch this all play out is a consideration of how aspects of a metrics driven approach to NIL use might work:

To start here's some numbers I pulled from the internets on kids making the NFL. Most of our "good" starters tend to fit into this category in that they end up having a cup of coffee in the league and I believe that's all that is represented here, at least a cup of coffee in the league:

Five-stars: (65.7%) Four-stars: (23%) For discussions sake lets say high four stars (top 150) hit at 40%. I won't bother talking about 3 stars because it seems they are pretty irrelevant when it comes to NIL spend.

So in choosing whether or not to throw limited NIL money at recruits (let's stick to five stars and high four stars first) - you are setting 35%-50% of your money on fire (at least) with whatever you spend assuming you are willing to pay near market for all five stars and high four stars. So let's say we've got a 5 million dollar budget (making up a number) for high end high school recruits in any year. Roughly 2 million is gone based on the 40%(ish) fail rate.

Looking back at the highest rated recruits in Jim Harbaugh's tenure and considering our hypothetical investment of millions in them in an NIL world and what payoff it would give let's look at our blue chip recruits. I'll do 5.9 and higher because it roughly equates to top 150 which roughly equates to NIL. The lists are ranked from highest ranked recruits in this range to lowest. I put hit or miss corresponding to whether or not it would be worth paying them and I was pretty friendly on hits calling a one year starter a hit.

2016: Gary (hit), Bredeson (hit), Asiasi (miss), Peters (miss), Onwenu (hit), Mitchell (miss), Crawford (miss), David Long (hit) 4/8 hits
2017 Peoples-Jones (hit), Anthony (miss), Solomon (miss), Ruiz (hit), Singleton (miss), McCaffrey (miss), Vilain (miss), Thomas (hit), Black (hit), Collins (hit) 5/10
2018 Aidan Hutchinson (hit), Myles Sims (miss) 1/2
2019 Hinton (hit), Hill (hit), Charbonnet (miss), Jones (hit), Smith (hit) 4/5 (good year)
2020 Seldon (miss), Henning (miss), Mullings (hit), Corum (hit), Green-Warren (miss) 2/5
2021 JJ (hit), Donovon (hit), El-Hadi (hit), Crippen (hit), Hansen (miss) Colson (hit), Benny (hit) 6/7
2022 Johnson (hit), Moore (hit), Morris (hit), Graham (hit) Clemons (miss), Sabb (miss) 0/2
2023 English (miss) 0/1

So the overall "worth it" rate turns out to have been 26/44 or 59%. Its worth noting that the top 2 (or 1 if there's only one top 150) hit rate is only 8/15 so it doesn't even get better for the top end of the class. However, I'm quite certain if those top end recruits were truly elite ranked (top 15) it would increase.

So if you've got a 5 million dollar a year NIL budget for top 150 high school recruits you've spent $40 million and set $18-20 million on fire with recruits that didn't work out!!!!

Now let's consider the hit rate of the NIL FREE level 4 star recruits (non top 150) - so all 4 star recruits 5.8 or lower:

2016: Ron Johnson (miss), Brad Hawkins (hit), Kemp (hit) Bush (hit), Walker (miss), Mbem-Bosse (miss), Eubanks (hit), Lavert Hill (hit) 5/8
2017 St. Juste (miss), Ross (hit), Samuels (miss), Malone-Hatcher (miss), Hudson (miss), Jeter (hit), Filagia (miss), Oliver Martin (miss), 2/8
2018 Green (miss), Milton (miss), Mayfield (hit), McGrone (hit), Muhammad (miss) 2/5
2019 Rumler (miss), McNamara (hit), Barnhardt (hit), All (hit), Quinten Johnson (hit) Michael Morris (hit), Giles Jackson (miss), Jalen Perry (miss), Trevor Keegan (hit), Cornelius Johnson (hit) 7/10
2020 Wheeler (miss), Savage (miss), Zinter (hit), McGregor (hit), Mohan (miss), Morant (miss), Persi (hit), Paige (hit) 4/8
2021 Bennett (miss), Bounds (miss), Dixon (miss), Rooks (miss) 0/4
2022 Kody Jones (miss), Loveland (hit), Rolder (hit), Berry (hit), 3/4
2023 Morgan (hit), Cabana (miss), Bridgeman (miss), Moore (hit), Herring (hit), Etta (hit), Link (miss), Calhoun (miss), Pierce (mis), Hill (hit) 5/10


Here the overall hit rate is a LITTLE lower as expected 28/58...but this is still a good range for hits and has a few stars but not as many as the above list.


In the first group you theoretically have to throw money at kids and you will burn half of it. In the second list you spend nothing because they aren't in the NIL tier (estimating here based on what we read).

So given all of this, what might a smart strategy be for use of NIL funds IF you do NOT have limitless NIL money and/or you want to use it somewhat judiciously?????

IN MY OPINION

1. Be VERY judicious about NIL funds for high school recruits. The best of the best (Underwood, JJ, Donos) yeah go for it, the rest, know you are going to be wasting some money so be sure they are cultural fits too. The range from say 25 - 150 is particularly risky (high four stars) for NIL money waste based on hit rates. Also try to find the exceptions that aren't asking for checks.
2. Hammer the high school 4 stars just outside the 4 star range. They are free.
3. Take advantage of other schools work and luck by identifying stars pursuing underclass transfers. The Hausmans and Barhams of the world for example will give you a five star performance this year. Other schools get these gems, mine them. You likely wont waste money here because you have tape and can project accurately. Great majority of this NIL money spent will be used and a "hit".
4. Retain your NFL eligible upper classmen. Almost 100% usage of NIL funds for hit
5. Fill in dire needs with upper class trasfers - also a safe, efficient spend.

Its hard for people to adjust to this new world because the formulas have been clear for a long time. You need great coaching AND you need high four stars and five stars.

The game has changed though and given that we aren't going to be a Ferrari in the parking lot program (or one that will accept flushing millions down the toilet yearly), it seems we might be a HELLUVA lot smarter than some are claiming.

We still need to find a way to procure the JJs and Donos (and Barhams :) ) so this is not to suggest we don't need some hits on high school recruits but early on with NIL uncertainty and ramp up our approach seems to make a LOT of sense, especially considering we happened to win a national title in the background.

In fact some of you grasping to hope for a sharp increase in blue chips, you could end up being disappointed because, frankly, this strategy seems to make a lot of sense even in the longer term (and I'm not saying they are using it or plan to use it, just that with good coaching it could work at the high levels)

Brick by brick tweets

I've noticed today that the Michigan football coaches & staff have tweeted out #BrickByBrick26.
I'm assuming it means they are planning on a monsterous 2026 recruiting class. I love the idea for the goal for the 2026 class if that's what it means, but the the hashtag is a moment for pause if your in the south.

As a Tennessee resident I saw Butch Jones on the local media a lot during his time with the Vols and it reminds of his "brick by brick" failed process. I hope and pray Michigan changes the image of that saying into a positive one for me and other Wolverines fans who lived in TN during the Butch era in Knoxville 😂
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Recruiting 2025 Rivals250 OL Hardy Watts lists Michigan in top 3 ahead of OV

Ahead of his official visit to Michigan, 2025 Rivals250 OL Hardy Watts has included Michigan in his top 3.
With Michigan recruiting gaining momentum, could Watts be the next bump?
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