Now that any hopes for the NCAA are functionally dead after last night's collapse, let's look ahead.
How does each position shake out?
PG: Dug McDaniel and... Dug McDaniel. That's all we have. Bufkin can play minutes there, and we'll see if George Washington III can do so when he arrives. I expect Dug to make some nice improvements and be a pretty decent B1G PG. Maybe 10 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds and increased efficiency from his pretty awful .365 on 2's and .317 on 3's right now.
SG: Kobe Bufkin backed up by George Washington III. (At the moment, it doesn't look like Isaiah Barnes can play.) Bufkin needs to improve significantly on his .309 efficiency from the arc, but his .541 on 2's is excellent for a shooting guard, and the 4 rebounds and 3 assists he's averaging - very solid for a college 2 - are continuing to improve. His defense has improved from "embarrassing" last season to "usually acceptable and at times good" this season. Hopefully the need to improve his poor perimeter shooting will keep him here another season, as I don't want to contemplate what this team looks like without. In this day and age you can't rule out anyone coming out, but one more year would certainly appear to be in order for Kobe.
SF: This is where things can get ugly. Jett is probably a late lottery pick. Maybe, just maybe, he stays for a second year to help out his dad and polish up a few things at the college level? Not counting on it, but it's not inconceivable. If Joey Baker is asked back for a sixth season and is amenable to it, he's your starter. And if he's not back... we're talking about Jace and Khayat. Jace isn't a Big Ten player, and Khayyat is a total unknown quantity at this point. Without transfer help, this could be a scary position.
PF: I expect an improving Will Tschetter, in his third season, to push Terrance Williams, who will be a senior. Williams moving into a starting spot and only averaging 7 points, 6 rebounds and virtually no assists, steals or blocks has been one of this season's big disappointments, and he's looking like the second straight 4* at the position (after Brandon Johns) that Juwan has failed to develop. Gregg Glenn will likely remain a nonfctor in his second season. At this moment, it's hard to see anything better than adequate play at the 4 next season.
C: I have a feeling that one way or another, Hunter Dickinson will not be back. He's a good college player with no NBA future - he's not getting drafted. He really has not improved much over three seasons. His numbers are down slightly across the board from last season outside of improved efficiency on limited 3-point shots. His 2-point shooting and free throw shooting are both career lows, he is down nearly an assist a game from last year, and his rebounding and blocks have plateaued. His efficiency has not improved since his freshman year; he just gets more shots as he's a clear focal point now that Livers and Wagner are gone. Just a pure gut feeling on this: I think Dickinson transfers to a program with a better chance of chasing a national championship. I am optimistic that Tarris Reed could be very good, though, with Papa Kante backing him up.
Projected Depth Chart:
PG: McDaniel
SG: Bufkin (Washington, Barnes)
SF: Baker (Khayat, Howard)
PF: Williams or Tschetter (Glenn)
C: Reed (Kante)
At the moment, if Dickinson and Howard were to stay, we would not have room for Baker to return. And if Howard alone were to stay, the staff's confidence level in Khayat as a backup would dictate whether Baker is asked back.
With Dickinson and Howard, you have the whole starting lineup back and you can expect some improvement overall. No excuse to bring your starting 5 back and miss the Tourney again. But it would leave you the problem, barring someone transferring, that you'd lose Baker and would absolutely need Khayat to step up to be a usable backup.
Short of Hunter & Jett returning...
McDaniel and Bufkin, I think, are going to be a good Big Ten backcourt next season. The problem is that there is no depth. If Washington doesn't arrive game-ready, we literally don't have a single usable backup guard. Getting one in the transfer portal looks like an absolute must. And in fact, Barnes leaving so we could take a swing in the portal at getting a usable combo guard or wing might be very important to any chance we have at success next season.
I will continue to say this: Juwan's selfish decision to give Jace a scholarship just out of pure nepotism looms large now. Jace is not a Big Ten player, he was not expected by anyone besides his dad to be one coming out of high school, and having him taking up a scholarship is hurting the team and is a significant ding on Juwan's coaching record.
Overall, it's hard to envision next year's team being appreciably better than this year's barring a high-impact transfer. And if we go with the assumption that Bufkin is here one more year at most... the following year looks no better, and a stellar 2024 class seems like an absolute pre-requisite for Juwan to survive.
The more distance we get from Beilein, the shakier this looks.
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