No one is surprised we're 7-0. All offseason I told anyone who would listen that I thought we were so good that something would have to go very wrong for us to lose a game. We had top level talent, with depth at so many positions that we were borderline injury-proof.
The results have been as expected thus far. But how they have been achieved has been a little surprising in spots. Not every element of the team has developed as we expected it to.
How It Started: We projected to have depth of competence at WR, but perhaps no true #1.
How It's Going: We have a breakout WR1 in Wilson, but no one has really stepped up as an impactful WR3/WR4 yet.
Clemons hasn't emerged as many expected, O'Leary has been hurt for much of the season, Moore & English have gotten on the field but not done much, Morris & Morgan have flashed and look promising for next season. Part of the reason for no one truly stepping up behind the seniors is that McCarthy is only averaging 18+ pass attempts per game, so there are only so many balls to go around. (More on this below.)
How It Started: A fully-actualized Donovan Edwards, after his 3-game star turn to close out last season, said he was going to master the receiving game as well and essentially be Christian McCaffrey redux, assuming an equal partnership with Blake Corum in the backfield. The two even spoke of sharing the Heisman.
How It's Going: After leading the nation in yards per carry last season, Edwards is averaging a downright poor 3.3 yards per carry on his 60 carries on the season.
Edwards' anemic production looks even more troubling because Corum, at 5.7 YPC, is chewing up yards at very close to his efficiency from his spectacular 2022 season, while Kalel Mullings' light is going on as he has emerged for 6.4 YPC on his 23. Even Benjamin Hall (which I think might be the name of the new freshman dorm that just broke ground on the former Elbel Field) looks better running the football than Edwards. Where it looked like fait accompli that The Don would be a made man and NFL-bound after this season, he has performed more like Fredo and it's hard to see him as draftable at this point barring a major second-half resurgence. It's easier to envision him losing RB2 carries to Mullings right now than it is to see him in the pros next season. Next year's depth chart along with his looking neither instinctive nor rugged running the football, might point towards his future being at WR, not RB.
How It Started: Reports from numerous players and recruits in the spring and summer suggested that this year we would "sling the ball around more" compared to the last two run-heavy seasons, finally having a true star QB locked and loaded. Harbaugh himself said his intention was a 50/50 balance.
How It's Going: After very close to a 50/50 balance during the nonconference slate, since Jim's return for conference play the offense is back to exactly 65% run/35% pass. The Harbaugh restrictor plate is back on the aerial attack.
Many believed that JJ was the QB to whom Harbaugh would finally entrust with the keys to his offense. We have now learned once and for all that he is simply not wired for that. A Harbaugh offense will never be QB-centric. That is simply not who he is, philosophically. If it 's not JJ, this year, it won't be anyone. McCarthy's pass attempts, instead of going up to be closer to most other top QB's, have actually dropped substantially this season, from 24 to 18 per game. It's worth noting that being a run-heavy attack is only one variable here: the new clock rules have shortened games, we are by design playing at close to the slowest pace in the nation on top of it, we have been so dominant that we are often in a "run" game state, and our level of dominance over weak opposition has resulted in the starters never playing 4 quarters. But most of the other top QB's around the country throw the ball a lot more - in some cases nearly twice as often - as Michigan.
JJ is performing at an elite efficiency level and continues to make eye-popping throws while on-schedule with Fran Tarkenton-level improvisation off-schedule. But this is not a quarterback's offense. McCarthy is a man in full, playing the QB position at the highest level we have ever seen in a winged helmet. But he's a Ferrari that we do not drive over 55, so his numbers do not and probably will not fully reflect his excellence.
How It Started: We have an embarrassment of riches with 12-13 deep on an offensive line that is headed for a third straight Joe Moore Award.
How It's Going: The depth is there and the starters have generally performed well, but the OL doesn't look quite as dominant as the last two seasons.
Corum is gaining yards at his old rate, others (besides Edwards) are chipping in, and JJ is being sacked only once per game. The offense has gained the highest percentage of possible yards and points in the country; Tommy Doman may need to bring a good book to read on the sidelines a'la Jon Moxon soon.
However... the level of competition has been soft and the eye test says they're not as good as last season. Keegan and Barnhart have lost too many reps, and Nugent gets pushed back into the backfield with much greater frequency than Oluwatimi did last year.
The line is good. Just not sure they're great.
How It Started: The defense was projected to be pretty good, but with a few questions that needed to be answered.
How It's Going: With the exception of a couple of mistakes, the defense has been virtually impenetrable, at least to the level of competition they have faced.
While we haven't seen gaudy sack numbers, the pass rush has been consistent. Run defense has been a wall. While we don't know how he'll hold up against the better teams, Josh Wallace has been plenty good at CB2 - which has been needed since the younger guys have yet to step up. And after it looked like he might be a future linebacker at first, despite the occasional error you expect from a young safety, Keon Sabb has become a full rotation piece and looks like a future star. We rotate a full 2-deep at every position except corner with almost no drop-off in quality. Over quarters 1-3 this season, the defense has scored as many touchdowns as they have conceded through 7 games.
Stiffer tests await, but to this point they have been ruthless and substantially better than expected coming into the season.