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Recruiting Intel: Michigan to pursue recent portal entry

Received a message a few days ago to look out for Notre Dame wide receiver Tobias Merriweather, who is currently a sophomore, to enter the portal.

Lo and behold, he announced his intentions to enter today.

Being told that Michigan should be at the top of his list once they pursue and could have a very good shot of landing him.

The only thing, of course, is admissions. He is a sophomore so it does pose a bit of a question mark. However, they think he’ll be fine in that regard.

Big thing here, his father is a Michigan fan.

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On Indiana HC search

As Josh reported, it appears Mike Hart has interviewed for the position. This first round of interviews was quick and involved a popular firm, TurnkeyZRG. Indiana appears focused on candidates with not only head coach experience, but have been successful for multiple years. Jason Candle of Toledo and former Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst seemed like the early favorites earlier this week. John Brice of FootballScoop reported last night that current James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti appears to be the target now. Our partners with Indiana Rivals have confirmed this and used the term "zeroed in". This often means they are in the contract talk stage, and unless something significant ends negotiations, that is the expected hire.

This will, at worst, be a great experience for Hart, who has ambitions to rise in the coaching ranks. This won't be his last interview, and it is important to note Jim Harbaugh supports Hart and all of his coaches getting these opportunities. I am excited about the in-house option that could replace Hart if he were to move on, and I trust excellent external candidates would also be considered. This is just what success looks like, other programs want your coaches, they want to emulate your success.

Mind The Gap: Quantifying OSU vs UM Recruited Talent

I went through recruiting data for the last decade in an effort to quantify the collective star average of the 3rd-4th-5th year classes on both teams. I didn't do all 5 classes because the 3rd-5th years are the players who eat up the majority of snaps - that grouping more accurately reflects the talent level of the guys actually playing than the full roster would. (OSU's banner freshman class, by and large, wasn't on the field this year.)

The following shows the difference in star average, per player, between OSU and Michigan's 3rd-5th years on each team, and the result of The Game.

A 0.25 difference means that every fourth upperclassman on the roster gets bumped up a star. That means for any random group of four 3*, OSU replaces one with a 4*. For any random group of four 4*, OSU replaces one with a 5*. That's statistically significant, but not monumental - you can overcome that a decent percentage of the time if you can develop and scheme competitively and have a good culture. Just some of the randomness of the game can swing things your way.

Example: McCord and McCarthy were rated identically in the same class. But JJ, by virtue of not having a superstar in front of him, played a lot more in his first two years, so he was much more advanced in his development this year, and The Game was at home.

A 0.5 difference means you take every other upperclassman and bump him up a star. That's a MASSIVE difference in talent that you're only rarely going to scheme and develop your way past.

2017​
OSU +0.23​
OSU​
2018​
OSU +0.20​
OSU​
2019​
OSU +0.23​
OSU​
2020​
OSU +0.41​
-​
2021​
OSU +0.41​
MICH​
2022​
OSU +0.26​
MICH​
2023​
OSU +0.23​
MICH​
2024​
OSU +0.40​
2025​
OSU +0.54​
2026​
OSU +0.50​

As you can see here, In 2021 we overcame a pretty significant edge in recruited talent. But in 2022 and 2023, the gap fell a bit to the lower end of what we've seen over the last 15 years or so. In terms of recruited talent on the older three classes on the roster, OSU didn't have THAT big an edge on us this year, our third-year QB had been able to get more experience than theirs over his career thus far, and the game was at home. This year's result was not actually a surprise, if you were trying to forecast with recruiting data and some other fundamentals, like experience at key positions and playing at home. (Which is why I was saying all offseason that we really should run the table in the regular season.)

The gap goes up moderately next year, and then in 2025 and 2026... just based on the recruiting already done, the talent gap that has already been baked in will be at historic highs.

These early NIL classes where OSU surged to over 4.0 class-wide star averages while we stagnated start to come home to roost a little next year and hit hard in 2025/2026.

Obviously we have mitigated some of this gap using the portal, and will need to continue to do so better than our competition. And we will see if our practice of shifting all graduates to NIL to open up more spots for new recruits starts to give us an edge over our peer programs - or if they catch on and start to do the same and now we're back to all major programs functionally having over 100 "scholarship" players.

OSU games that Stallions bought tickets too

https://www.10tv.com/article/sports...ffer/530-3a7db764-bbfd-498d-bb3e-e40a03ad46cd and a bit more info here Login to view embedded media
YAWN... IF this is the next bombshell, it isn't. The only thing that could be interesting is the tickets to the Michigan OSU game. If Stallions had someone texting him during the game, then that is a pretty big deal. I feel like if they had that info, then it would have dropped by now.

MSU head coach not a top 40 job

Keep seeing Comp and the other MSU fans on their site how the MSU head coach position is a top 20 position. Based on my review I put them anywhere in the 41-80 range depending on what factors you apply. I see the following conference numbers for coaching positions above MSU
ACC
Big 12 7
Independents 1
Big 10. 8
PAC 12. 9
SEC. 10

revenues, fan base, TV ratings and some are factors. Apply your own. Just me thoughts

I’ll be alone for the game Saturday Instead of our usual group. And Quinn and I pick the game. Spoiler: drink coffee before kick off..

Usually for a big Michigan game, my nephew, who is a Penn State grad, comes over and watches with Pops and I, until he enrolled at PSU, he was a Michigan fan due to his GrandPop bringing him over to watch games together long ago when I was in NC. It was an opportunity to spend time alone with him to build that bond, independent of interference from his helicopter mother. He now has a serious girlfriend from South Africa who has joined our watch party this year and she is a delightful fun young woman.. My brother-in-law is a “silverspoon, exclusive private school in Vermont, hates football because it’s a blue collar gladiator sport that is truly American and wildly popular”, kind of guy. You know the type..the bitter contrarian. He follows the EPL instead, but he never played the sport. Which is cool, do your thing. I’m certainly a square peg and refuse to participate in things that are immensely popular in America. But he can’t just leave it at that. Every time he hears us talk about football, and in this family you will hear it a lot, he always has to make some snide comment about it..every single time. He’s just a bitter curmudgeon who has to make negative remarks about everything. I’ve bitten my lip till it bled after he does this many times, doing anything to keep myself from cutting him to pieces with my cruel and savage forked tongue. He’s f****d up so much, and too fat and lazy to even paint his own house. Forcing my sister to call me, the disabled guy who can’t bend over, and her 80 yr old father to help her finish painting before thanksgiving dinner at her place this year.

In an act of delicious irony, my niece‘s boyfriend for a couple of years, who is a huge Eagles fan, has turned my niece into a football super fan who comes over to watch Michigan with us now. Our whole family is here, with both dogs, making food, they’re drinking beer or cocktails..not me, and everyone has a blast…except my brother-in-law, who would rather stay home all by himself than just join us. The only positive thing I can say about him is he was a real good father to those kids. In that regard he was exemplary.

We WERE planning a big outside bbq on one of those new stainless open wood fire smokeless units for Saturday. But mom took ill last night and was shaking this morning from being dehydrated from being sick. She’s not in ICU..she’s in the unit below (The Very Attentive Care Unit?) and will be there over the weekend. Pop’s will be there all day, every day, from 9am until 9pm..every day she is there, because this is what he does when she is in the hospital..that is how he expresses his emotions. Coming to terms with the digression from Alzheimer’s has her in a very upset and agitated state that has worn her out. So they are going to keep her, give her a healthy shot of Valium, and just give her an extended rest to recover.

So it’ll be just me and Quinn watching the game on my new LG OLED 4k HD 120hz movement tracking, 55 inch brand new TV I bought myself for December through February Football. Yes, my dog watches football on TV..intently. The funny thing is how he reacts to commercials with Dogs!

Both Quinn and I are expecting a pretty vanilla boring game. When Michigan goes up by 2 scores it will be the Mullings show, as Michigan won’t want to risk their top RBs to getting injured. If it’s 24-0, or even 17-3 in the middle of the 3rd quarter, Jim will pull JJ because there is no way that 5000 bc Iron Age offense has a shot in hell coming back from a 2 touchdown deficit. My gambling advice is to bet the under. Final Score: Michigan 27 - Iowa 6 In the most boring game all year, unless you’re a big fan of watching death by a thousand 4 yard run plays. I expect Michigan to hand the ball off a minimum of 40 times Saturday, Maybe more if the go up early 14-0. Yes, wining the B1G Championship is great, but I think their main goals are to get up beyond Iowa’s ability to mount a comeback, then sub all the critical players out and run the ball the rest of the game to end it as quickly as possible. I don’t think Iowa’s offense has a chance in hell of smelling the endzone for 7. I really believe there’s a solid chance they get shut out.

It's Good News Wednesday! 11-29-23

My good news is THREE PEAT! What a glorious win it was under the most arduous circumstances! This team has GRIT. Coach Harbaugh is building something special.

I have spent way to much time looking at every podcast, reading every article, and laughing at endless memes.

Thanksgiving was great.

The long weekend was great.

I'm looking forward to this Saturday.

What's your good news?

Go Blue!
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