I went through recruiting data for the last decade in an effort to quantify the collective star average of the 3rd-4th-5th year classes on both teams. I didn't do all 5 classes because the 3rd-5th years are the players who eat up the majority of snaps - that grouping more accurately reflects the talent level of the guys actually playing than the full roster would. (OSU's banner freshman class, by and large, wasn't on the field this year.)
The following shows the difference in star average, per player, between OSU and Michigan's 3rd-5th years on each team, and the result of The Game.
A 0.25 difference means that every fourth upperclassman on the roster gets bumped up a star. That means for any random group of four 3*, OSU replaces one with a 4*. For any random group of four 4*, OSU replaces one with a 5*. That's statistically significant, but not monumental - you can overcome that a decent percentage of the time if you can develop and scheme competitively and have a good culture. Just some of the randomness of the game can swing things your way.
Example: McCord and McCarthy were rated identically in the same class. But JJ, by virtue of not having a superstar in front of him, played a lot more in his first two years, so he was much more advanced in his development this year, and The Game was at home.
A 0.5 difference means you take every other upperclassman and bump him up a star. That's a MASSIVE difference in talent that you're only rarely going to scheme and develop your way past.
As you can see here, In 2021 we overcame a pretty significant edge in recruited talent. But in 2022 and 2023, the gap fell a bit to the lower end of what we've seen over the last 15 years or so. In terms of recruited talent on the older three classes on the roster, OSU didn't have THAT big an edge on us this year, our third-year QB had been able to get more experience than theirs over his career thus far, and the game was at home. This year's result was not actually a surprise, if you were trying to forecast with recruiting data and some other fundamentals, like experience at key positions and playing at home. (Which is why I was saying all offseason that we really should run the table in the regular season.)
The gap goes up moderately next year, and then in 2025 and 2026... just based on the recruiting already done, the talent gap that has already been baked in will be at historic highs.
These early NIL classes where OSU surged to over 4.0 class-wide star averages while we stagnated start to come home to roost a little next year and hit hard in 2025/2026.
Obviously we have mitigated some of this gap using the portal, and will need to continue to do so better than our competition. And we will see if our practice of shifting all graduates to NIL to open up more spots for new recruits starts to give us an edge over our peer programs - or if they catch on and start to do the same and now we're back to all major programs functionally having over 100 "scholarship" players.
The following shows the difference in star average, per player, between OSU and Michigan's 3rd-5th years on each team, and the result of The Game.
A 0.25 difference means that every fourth upperclassman on the roster gets bumped up a star. That means for any random group of four 3*, OSU replaces one with a 4*. For any random group of four 4*, OSU replaces one with a 5*. That's statistically significant, but not monumental - you can overcome that a decent percentage of the time if you can develop and scheme competitively and have a good culture. Just some of the randomness of the game can swing things your way.
Example: McCord and McCarthy were rated identically in the same class. But JJ, by virtue of not having a superstar in front of him, played a lot more in his first two years, so he was much more advanced in his development this year, and The Game was at home.
A 0.5 difference means you take every other upperclassman and bump him up a star. That's a MASSIVE difference in talent that you're only rarely going to scheme and develop your way past.
2017 | OSU +0.23 | OSU |
2018 | OSU +0.20 | OSU |
2019 | OSU +0.23 | OSU |
2020 | OSU +0.41 | - |
2021 | OSU +0.41 | MICH |
2022 | OSU +0.26 | MICH |
2023 | OSU +0.23 | MICH |
2024 | OSU +0.40 | |
2025 | OSU +0.54 | |
2026 | OSU +0.50 |
As you can see here, In 2021 we overcame a pretty significant edge in recruited talent. But in 2022 and 2023, the gap fell a bit to the lower end of what we've seen over the last 15 years or so. In terms of recruited talent on the older three classes on the roster, OSU didn't have THAT big an edge on us this year, our third-year QB had been able to get more experience than theirs over his career thus far, and the game was at home. This year's result was not actually a surprise, if you were trying to forecast with recruiting data and some other fundamentals, like experience at key positions and playing at home. (Which is why I was saying all offseason that we really should run the table in the regular season.)
The gap goes up moderately next year, and then in 2025 and 2026... just based on the recruiting already done, the talent gap that has already been baked in will be at historic highs.
These early NIL classes where OSU surged to over 4.0 class-wide star averages while we stagnated start to come home to roost a little next year and hit hard in 2025/2026.
Obviously we have mitigated some of this gap using the portal, and will need to continue to do so better than our competition. And we will see if our practice of shifting all graduates to NIL to open up more spots for new recruits starts to give us an edge over our peer programs - or if they catch on and start to do the same and now we're back to all major programs functionally having over 100 "scholarship" players.
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