I hadn't watched a ton of Alabama this year, so I went back and re-watched the key games from Bama earlier this year and wanted to share my thoughts on Bama as a whole, as well as how I believe we'll match up against them.
tl;dr - keep Milroe in the pocket and we win.
Offensively for Bama, it doesn't take a re-watch of many games to know that they go as Jalen Milroe goes. Jalen Milroe is an outstanding and dangerous athlete in space who is still learning to play quarterback. Milore, as a pure QB, is inconsistent, putting it nicely. He can be accurate when he sets his feet, but he often throws off-balanced or off his back foot to sail passes to even wide-open receivers. He also struggles to read coverages and will throw at least 3-4 50/50 balls, which I think our DBs and Minter can and will take advantage of. Can hit a deep ball IF it's a designed first-read
That being said, and thankfully for Milroe, he is one of the best athletes I've seen at QB in quite a while. He reminds me of the 2005 version of Vince Young, where he torched that UM defense in the Rose Bowl. He is extremely dangerous using his legs and does an unbelievable job identifying when the defense gets out of their rush lanes. The games Alabama put up tons of points was because MIlroe got into space consistently. He was often the leading rusher on the team for most games.
When Bama re-inserted Milroe back into the starting lineup after the failed USF experiment, the coaching staff did a great job of eliminating the number of decisions he had to make in-game, allowing him to be the backyard QB type he excels at. Most of the QB runs and deep shots are designed. There are not a ton of QB/RB Mesh reads and a very limited amount of RPO. He did get better slightly through the year of getting to his second read, but he still will stare down his first read and can hold onto the ball too long, resulting in a ton of scrambles, 3rd and long pickups, but also a ton of sacks.
So how do you stop a guy I just compared to Vince Young? Well, UGA and Texas, unsurprisingly, did the best job in the games I watched in different ways. Both used a QB spy in obvious passing situations (sometimes UGA used TWO QB spys). Texas used an unbelievable Athlete in #0, Anthony Hill Jr., who is an absolute stud, to track him up and down the field, which worked some of the time. UGA, I thought, did the best job as their DL used what's called a "mush rush." in addition to a one or two-man QB spy. It is an extreme discipline in your rush lane, in particular with your DEs keeping their outside shoulder free and not getting past the QB. When Milore is kept in the pocket, the point total for the Bama offense drops considerably.
For the rest of the offense, the WRs are both really good in Burton and Bond. Oline is solid but not dominant like in years past, with their best game against a below-average UGA Dline, at least in the 1st half - yes below average is accurate for UGA. For the traditional run game, very similar to UM they run Duo, Pin and Pull, IZ, insert Iso, designed QB runs, Jet Sweep, and some toss sweep. They have a very obvious run tell whenever their TE motions into the backfield. It's not at the forefront, at least for me, because Tommy Rees is not committed to running the football, especially in the 2nd half and close games, outside of Jalen Milroe.
What does this mean for UM?
First and foremost, I do not think we'll see a ton of change from Bama in our game vs what they've shown so far. Doing anything more complicated than they have runs the risk of Jalen Milroe not playing as free as he is at the moment. I'm actually glad we're playing Bama first vs. in the NC game because Jesse Minter will have a full month to prepare to not necessarily stop Jalen Milore - but, more realistically, contain him. Jesse Minter is a huge advantage for us vs Tommy Rees in my opinion.
I've never been a huge fan of QB Spy because not only do you take somebody out of coverage, but they still rarely work because, usually, it's a linebacker not athletic enough to make a tackle against a special athlete in open space. However, this is a special case where I believe it will be a necessity. Not sure who this will be though - Maybe Barrett? But you take away your best coverage/blitzing LB - I will be curious to see what he decides.
In my very biased opinion, I think UM's defense is the most complete defense Bama will see all year and will excel because of their ability to mix coverages that will confuse Milroe and get him to hold the ball. Like Iowa, Milroe will also throw 2-3 or more 50/50 balls that will be up to the UM's secondary to take advantage of and secure the turnover - which they have done this year.
Our Dline, specifically our DTs will be the best Bama has seen since Texas - It will be stressed to them during bowl prep to stay disciplined in their rush lanes - I also think they'll trust the DLine enough to continue to stunt but still stay in their rush lanes - anticipate about 3-4 sacks.
UM Defense vs Bama Offense Prediction
Gone are the days (at least this year) of an Alabama offense with Bryce Young, Tua, and Mac Jones slinging the ball with the best WR group in the country, combined with dominant Oline getting 5-6 yards a carry. This Bama offense just isn't it - they are so dependent on one player's production, with an average OC slightly handcuffed. This Bama offense draws very similar comparisons to the years with Denard, where he would torch below-average defenses but struggled with teams that forced him in the pocket.
Talking SEC Championship game - Even with Bama dominating UGA up front, they really were lucky to score the number of points they did. They had a scoring drive at the end of the first half aided by a 4th down no-call drop and the best Milore throw of the year on a skinny post to Burton, plus an FG on a fumble from UGA inside the 20. UGA also busted coverage a solid 3-4 times on defense which was the cause of many of Bama's big plays. Bama consistently struggles to put off points with above-average defenses.
UM Defensive confidence level: 6/10
10 being facing 2023 Iowa and 0 being 2019 LSU
Umich holds them to 17-20 pts. But also has at least 1 INT and 3-4 sacks.
I did also watch the Bama defense and have thoughts there, but I'll post that in another thread
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