QB: 1
We got our guy.
RB: 1-2
At the moment we have 7 scholarship RB's scheduled to return in 2024. But Donovan Edwards is almost sure to be NFL-bound after this season, Kalel Mullings is 50/50 to still be here for his 5th year depending on his situation, and it's hard to envision Tavierre Dunlap still being here by then given how buried he is on the depth chart. And CJ Stokes' situation will bear watching, anyway. Jordan Marshall is already in the fold and Taylor Tatum is clearly still a take, but if Tatum goes elsewhere, I don't think it's fait accompli we take another. 5 scholarship RB's is a passable number. 6 is totally fine. So I don't think we necessarily take a second RB just to take one. Even if all 3 of Edwards, Mullings and Dunlap departed, a 2024 RB room of, say (in order of age) Gash, Stokes, Hall, Cabana, Marshall and Tatum is fine, numbers-wise. Worse comes to worst, if we lost 3 and didn't get Tatum, we could go portal shopping for one more. (Or have a handy spot to slide Alex Orji into?) Given all the possibilities, I feel like we're "Tatum or bust" from this point forward.
TE: 2
We have 6 scheduled to return right now, but I expect it to be more like 4 as I envision 2 of Barner/Hibner/Klein not being here next season. Loveland will be here. Depending on the season he has it's possible Barner could enter the draft, and I think there are limits to Hibner's and Klein's patience. Thanks to the Law of Conservation of 4* TE's Named Hansen, Louis has departed but Hogan is incoming. And the tea leaves say Prieskorn will be in the fold shortly.
WR: 3
We have 10 set to return right now, which is a big number for returning players at the position. So I think this will be a case of one out/one in from here on in. Roman Wilson could be ready for the draft after this season, while Eamonn Dennis and Cristian Dixon have shown no signs of cracking the rotation, and if Donovan Edwards' expected increased usage in the slot this year (he's too dangerous a weapon to be limited to 10 carries a game as Corum's sidekick, and he almost surely is the best slot receiver on the roster) keeps Henning mostly limited to KOR/PR duty like last year, then AJ might be pondering a 5th year elsewhere. Or even a 4th...? So good bet only one of WiIson/Dixon/Dennis/Henning is here in 2024, leaving room for 3 incoming: Channing Goodwin, I'marion Stewart, and either Jordan Shipp or one of the other names we're involved with.
OL: 6
At present we have a borderline "full" room returning - 15 guys. But there is going to be some deep attrition in those ranks over the next 13 months. At the present time, Karsen Barnhart and Trente Jones are scheduled to be here as 6th years and Myles Hinton and Jeff Persi as 5th years. Two of those guys will almost surely be our starting tackles next season, and the other two will almost surely not be here. None of those guys will still be at Michigan as a backup in his 5th or 6th year. Further, Tristan Bounds and Connor Jones are two guys you hear very little buzz on, and Reece Atteberry is getting to a point where he has to decide if he actually wants to get on the field somewhere. I think at the end of the day, that 15 returning number may be more like 10-11, so upon further review, we can take six OL in this class if we really want. I personally don't love taking that many in one class because it basically assures that 2 will finish their careers elsewhere. You're baking in churn later. But we're recruiting right now as though we're not stopping at 5, and there are seats in the room.
DL: 3
Ted Hammond is already in the fold, and I think we'll take one more DE (likely Brandon Davis-Swain) and a DT TBA.
EDGE/SAM: 1
This is an overloaded position as it is, with 11 guys for 1-2 positions scheduled to return. Even if we lose 3-5 of them to the draft and portal between now and then, which I think is likely, it's a solid bet that we're Brian Robinson & done here.
LB: 3-4
Looks like the MIKE/WILL class will be Chiles, Beasley, Curtis and Ludwig. I remain a little skeptical that Ludwig is really going to be here as a scholarship player, but until we get information that clarifies the extremely odd situation surrounding Ben Herbert's nephew (are we just doing our S&C coach a solid by taking a "commitment" from his heretofore unknown nephew to fluff his recruiting profile and draw interest from elsewhere?)... I guess for now he's in the class?
DB: 3-4
Normally you like to take a full defensive backfield every year - two corners and two safeties. But as it stands, we have 13 scheduled returnees (with RJ Moten counted as a LB) and not a lot of obvious attrition candidates. Keon Sabb is someone you might look at, and whoever is at the back end of the competition between Ja'den McBurrows, Amorion Walker, Kody Jones, Myles Pollard, Jyaire Hill and Cameron Calhoun may be getting antsy by a year from now. Quinten Johnson would have to use the COVID exemption for a sixth year to return, but at the moment there's a world in which he finally gets to start next year after he started getting meaninful playing time last season. And there's a chance Rod Moore could be good enough this year, after two years as a starter and playing a lot as a freshman, that he's ready to go pro. So one way or another, that 13 returning is probably more like 10-11. 12-14 is a good number for the DB room, so I think we'll definitely take 3 and could make room for 4.
***
This gives us a range of 23-26 for the class.
As it stands we have 98 for next year (11 in the class) after Sprague drops today. 12-15 more takes us to 110-113. However they're doing it, the staff seems to think they can be around 90, not 85, meaning 20-23 guys currently scheduled to be here for '24 have to go to get down to 90 and make room for this class.
Ballparking it, I think we'll lose 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 2 TE's, 3 WR's, 3 OL, 2 DL, 6 LB/EDGE, and 2 DB to either the draft or portal before next season - a total of 23 departures, give or take. Right what we need to be in order take the projections above.
(Many of these will need to come before THIS season, as the 2023 roster still sits at 102. I'm expecting as many as 10 lockers to be cleaned out in about 3 weeks when the portal opens.)
And I don't envision much portal shopping next January. There are combinations of events where we might need to fill a hole at QB, RB or DT, but it's hard to see any more than that. Over/under on inbound transfers next year could be more like 1.5, compared to this year's 7.