Definitely different being a college football fan and living in Europe. That said, if anyone wants to dump their cable and do IPTV for 49 dollars annually (which also alleviates your Sunday Ticket need as you can swap between major local networks) let me know...
Well, here we are at a bye and sitting on 4-2. A few thoughts on where we're at and some wishful thinking. To end on a high note...
The UGLY
Turnovers have absolutely killed this team. They've put the defense in impossible situations and kept opposing teams in games (Fresno St./Ark St.) or allowed them back in (Minn). Much of this has come down to QB play. I won't put all of Warren's INTs on him. Can't account for deflected passes or receivers running the wrong route. Loveland just dropping the ball while running was so odd but that was a game where nothing seemed to go right. Donovan had one punched out. Tuttle had one punched out at a very inopportune time yesterday. Coming off an injury, he's going to have to get up to game speed after only being cleared a week prior.
QB performance has been horrid. I know it's not for lack of effort. Warren looked good at times throwing. I get the picks weren't all his fault but still, 6 picks is 6 picks. Orji was the beneficiary of USC not knowing what the Michigan offense was going to look like with him in the game. I'm not sure how they weren't ready for a hammer it out on the ground style given how Orji was previously used but it is what it is and we'll certainly take the W. However, the lack of threat to stretch the field made the offense very predictable. Michigan has been successful the last few years in no small part to the complementary style of football they've played where the offense, even if they didn't score, sustained drives and helped the defense stay fresh. This year, the inability to do that has led to the defense being gassed late in games when they've been asked to carry the team when they can't put points on the board.
If you removed Will Johnson from the secondary, Michigan may have lost another two games by this point. His pick sixes and general ability to shut down his side of the field makes them look better than they are. Hill and Berry look like the young kids they are out there. Very talented but need to take a step in development. Paige doesn't seem as aggressive this season for whatever reason and losing Moore hurt them far more than I thought it would. This unit has had a very difficult time getting off the field in key situations on third down. They also haven't been put in the best positions to succeed. That is coaching, which brings me to...
The BAD
This staff has done a terrible job, with one exception, at putting this team in positions to succeed. Some of this has been player performance, which is why this isn't in the ugly category but not adapting your play calling to the players or getting your best 11 guys on the field is absolutely inexcusable IMO. Making the switch to Orji was the lone exception here when it was obvious Michigan was going to have to lean into its run game and he essentially gave you an extra running back on the field. Offensively, how do you justify not having one of your most dynamic playmakers not on the field consistently? Because his position label is RB? Mullings may be your workhorse and get you the tough yards in the middle and break tackles someone else might not. Edwards is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. What is he doing on the bench? Line him up at WR. Motion him out of the backfield. Find other ways to get the ball in his hands instead of just handing it to him. Play him and Mullings together (they've done a bit better with this recently, but they likely should be doing it more if not making it their primary offense). Backup WRs/TEs shouldn't be on the field more than #7. Injuries have hurt them but OL play has left a lot to be desired, particularly in pass pro. Moore stepping into the HC role and out of the OL role is evident. Defensively, their one major bright side has been DL play all across (more on this later). They are consistently generating pressure and forcing the QB to get rid of the ball quickly, awesome. Except they'll generate that pressure while playing soft corners on the outside and solving the opposing offense's problem for them. Washington excelled at this yesterday. Third and 9? Pick your D lineman who beats his guy off the snap and is a step from making a sack when the QB slings it to a wide-open receiver given 10 yards of space by Hill. Slants and other in cutting routes off 3 step drops have been completed over and over again when opposing teams needed a play. If you're going to consistently generate that pressure, at least force a WR to win against a CB instead of just giving them a quick throw. Poor tackling and discipline with penalties have also killed them, usually with one or the other coming at a critical point in the game. Orji not draining the play clock, saving time for a Minn drive. This all comes back to coaching.
WR performance has been lacking. Again, this isn't in the ugly category due to the QB issues. However, they haven't consistently generated separation. Loveland is their best pass catching threat. This isn't a huge problem. NFL teams, particularly New England and Kansas City, have done very well (multiple Super Bowls) with a featured TE passing attack. But Brady also had receiver contributions over the years, notably Moss, Welker and Edelman. Mahomes benefitted from having Cheetah for several years. Rice has played well for them, too. These long developing plays haven't done much to help WRs who need to do more than just beat a guy off the line. They haven't done well at scheming guys open and creating conflict for opposing secondaries. Still, you have to beat your guy when given the chance. Was nice to see Amorion do this for a play yesterday which was all around a rep he won from the snap through the catch and tackle.
Punting...what happened to Doman? He's hardly been the field flipping weapon we saw time and again last season.
The GOOD
Defensive line + Hausmann. These guys have been very, very good. Was expecting a bit more out of Hausmann's fellow LB but he seems to still be trying to figure out the defense. They've been good enough to keep them in games that were in danger of getting out of hand until they would get gassed in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. Hopefully, this move to Tuttle, which will allow them to run a much more "JJ" style offense, will be able to sustain drives to keep these guys fresh. Their snap counts are very high compared to last season out of sheer necessity. Then, as something of a band aid, G&G will sit in key moments only to come back in the red zone as opposing offenses take advantage of the backups. Also something of a good, Benny and TJ Guy look like they can be significant contributors. Hausmann has been all over the place. Very impressed with him and he's playing at a high level.
Kalel Mullings. 😤 Nuff said. What a story, though. He's come a very long way from the fumble on the goal line of the TCU game.
Colston Loveland. With one exception of him inexplicably dropping the ball, the guy has been incredible. He's their only reliable threat to beat the coverage and make a play at this point.
Will Johnson. Maybe put him at WR? He has more TDs than our receivers...Team is very, very fortunate to have him.
The FG unit has been outstanding.
WISHFUL THINKING
Unfortunate Tuttle hasn't been available until now. The team seems to respond to him and they are much more of a threat to throw the ball effectively. Hopefully, him getting more reps will alleviate the late game issues. Campbell also wants to run a system of offense Tuttle can QB. Orji couldn't and Warren had the INT bug. Consistently moving the ball will be a game changer for them and allow the complementary style of football that has been so successful the last few seasons.
If Wink is going to keep bringing guys to pressure (or the D line just dominates and gets it on their own) I'd like to see the corners take away those quick throws. Whether man coverage or disguised cover 2, cloud, anything. Something that doesn't give up the 1.5 second throw when the QB only has 2 seconds. Find something Hill is good at and lean into it. That will allow the defense to disguise their weaknesses instead of highlighting them. As he gets better, he can take on more.
Donovan and Mullings have been getting similar touches in the backfield. I largely agree with this but not all of #7's touches need to come from handoffs. He has shown he's fully capable as a receiver. Design pass plays where he is the primary receiver. I know they're in the system. We've seen them. He certainly shouldn't be sitting on the bench. He's not on a game cover for no reason. This will also allow both of them another way to be on the field at the same time. He's definitely one of your best 11 offensive players. He needs to be on the field, not just getting a drive here and there or going in when Mullings needs a blow.
Finally, how good is this team? Well, there are really two answers to this question. They're an above average P5 team, likely top 15-25. How good could they be? This is still an unknown. Halfway through the season and we still haven't seen them play a complete game. You also can't spot the opposing team 14 points before a QB change. Who knows what happens if Tuttle gets the whole game instead of a quarter and a half of drives/plays going to Orji and the subsequent defensive snap count getting inflated. The defense has shown about 50-60 plays in, they're going to start to break down. It's incumbent on the offense to help them with that.
I'd be happy with a 9-3 season considering what they've lost. If they develop a passing game and play a complete game, I don't think that's totally out of the cards. 8-4 is a definite possibility, as well. The bye week really couldn't have come at a better time for this team as they transition to Tuttle. Go Blue.
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