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The Perfect Storm for Bryce Underwood

I've spent an unhealthy amount of hours scouring message boards the last two days (both Michigan and LSU) and these are my findings. Keep in mind I'm no insider, I know nothing directly nor have any direct ties to important people in either program.

  1. LSU is confident that they'll keep Bryce. They have maintained daily contact and feel good where they sit. In their eyes LSU is still the perfect fit all around. When they say "perfect fit" they generally mean QB development, WR talent/development, and scheme. They also feel confident in their ability to match any NIL offer, though its already so high that differences at this point are mostly negligible.
  2. Bryce likely isn't going to go somewhere based on money alone. Make no mistake NIL is the primary reason why Michigan got back in this race however, it essentially "cancels out" so now it is more of an apples to apples comparison between Michigan and LSU.
  3. The meter has moved and that is significant. Many LSU insiders are downplaying this (as you'd expect/they should) but a couple of months ago this was 100% LSU, it is certainly not at that point now. How much has it moved exactly? Josh believes quite a bit in Michigan's favor, but it seems like everyone has a different number. I can tell you this, it's probably more than what the LSU people are saying, but less than what some of the more optimistic Michigan people are saying... in other words its SOMETHING. That should make LSU folks sweat at least a little, and should give Michigan folks some excitement.
Seen a lot of LSU people say that Michigan can't really offer point 1 like LSU can. To an extent I believe that's true, but only to a small extent. In my opinion Michigan is developing NFL talent arguably better than most programs (including LSU) when you look at how many guys we've put into the league considering our level of recruiting is generally lower. We're having a down year and still projecting 5 first round picks. That sells. Last draft LSU may have had their QB go number 1 overall but ours wasn't far behind him. So, it is my opinion that the LSU folks are a little overconfident on the whole development and talent standpoint when comparing our programs. I do think Sherrone and Co. would have to change the scheme up some to fit him better... though it would appear they are more than willing to do so.

All of that being said Bryce did/does love LSU, and I think we need an extra push to get him over the Michigan fence. Conveniently it appears the perfect storm may be brewing... I personally believe that if one or more of these dominos fall we may just get him to come our way:

  1. Coaching mix-up at LSU. If their OC/QB Coach takes the HC job at ECU (his alma matter) a massive door opens for Michigan. Additionally, if Brian Kelly is to lose to either Bama or Vandy (or both) he may be sitting on a very hot seat. If either of these two are to leave or be terminated Michigan will have a golden opportunity.
    1. Allegedly many money folks aren't pleased with Brian Kelly and wanted him out yesterday. Nothing official on that but as Michigan fans that shouldn't be hard for most of us to imagine.
    2. I posted in another thread but the Chief of Staff at LSU, Beth Rex, who has been with Kelly for almost 20 years announced a resignation TODAY which may further hint to things not going great behind the scenes (with the staff) at LSU.
  2. Bryce can't make his visit next week. Josh pointed this out in another thread but due to playoff scheduling, should Bryce win this week making the trip down to Louisiana may be difficult. Not impossible but difficult. If it's hard to get down there, and Michigan is a serious consideration, he may end up not making the trip. If that happens you should see some real panic down South.
  3. Michigan continues to build a solid class around him, we know Marsh has had his recruiting hat on for us, but if we can prove that we're going to surround him with both elite and complimentary talent that could sway things. The class you come in with is almost as important as the program itself.
    1. Considering how much money Michigan is throwing around, this should be an easier sell.
  4. Garret Nussmeier stays for his final year of eligibility next season. I'm not sure how much this point individually influences Bryce that being said I'm certain playing time has been a large point of Michigan's pitch.

Nothing is for certain, and Bryce may very well stick it out with LSU. But I do believe that there is a very real path for Michigan to flip him. I believe LSU is overconfident (not to a fatal point) and being the hometown hero with a major NIL deal paired with immediate playing time for a personable staff that's willing to build around him has given Bryce a lot to consider. Still LSU's to lose, but we have a way better chance than what they're believing.

Recruiting What the decommitment of QB Carter Smith means for Michigan's 2025 class

This week, 2025 QB Carter Smith announced his decision to decommit from Michigan amidst the Bryce Underwood smoke.

Are bigger things ahead for the Wolverines on the recruiting trail? Could all of this backfire and leave the Wolverines without a QB in the class?

My thoughts:

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Recruiting Quick note on Shamari Earls

EDIT: Good news expected sooner rather than later. Carry on.

The longer this goes on, the less optimistic I am that a flip happens.

I do think he was totally on board with flipping coming out of the weekend but things have gone quiet currently.

Not saying things are doomed yet but the longer this goes, the chances to stay with UGA go way up.

Michigan took a big swing, was on board with a flip and the rest is history. What can you do if it doesn’t work out?

I have messages out there to see where things are.

Also, I said in a previous thread he is getting his fourth star in the next update so you can get off my tail about it now! 😂😂

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It's Good News Wednesday! 10-30-24

My good news is we beat Sparty's behind. It was satisfying, and for the first time in a long time, we looked like we improved from the previous week.

I am incredibly happy for Davis Warren and Alex Orji. Both played their roles to perfection.

I'm excited to see what the new basketball staff can bring this year.

We're going Trick or Treating with my granddaughter tomorrow night. It should be a fun time.

I'm hoping for the best this weekend.

What's your good news?

Go Blue!

The Defense is not as bad as it seems....

8 games in 66% of the regular season is done and I decided to look at some things.

A big talking point all year is how bad the defense has gotten, and it is for sure "worse" then it has been the past 3 years. But is it as bad as it seems? The answer in my opinion is, NO.

Here are a few key stats that show the defense isn't really "that" bad (all rankings/stats are from TeamRankings.com as I like that they filter out stats from FCS opponents since that can greatly skew overall stats, I wish they could filter out non p4 stats so people could see how much OSU has actually fallen back in conference play)

25th in yards per play allowed at 4.8
18th in yards per rush at 3.4
33rd in yards per pass attempt
32nd in points per game
Overall this is a good defense not elite like it has been but still good

However this is 2 key stats that make it look way worse (1 isn't the defenses fault)

80th in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed at 41.03%!!! This one is more on Winks 3rd down play calls then it is on the players at this point. Like people have mentioned over blitzing on 3rd down or lining Graham up outside has allowed for to many easy 3rd down pickups because he isn't putting his elite players in the spots for them to be elite. Also tackling has definitely taken a step back (my guess this has to do with the amount of injuries happening this year and them going lighter in practice possibly). this also allows opposing offenses to have extended drives making it harder and harder to get the needed stop or just keep the same intensity through out an entire game.

followed by a Turnover Margin of -6, the amount of TOs the offense has had has stuck the defense back on the field with their backs against the wall and with little rest to many times.

All of this combined with several injuries to starters or rotation players has made things look a bit worse then they are. It does give me hope for the rest of the season or at least for next year that younger players are getting time, new or younger players are starting to develop and play a lot better Hill, Guy, Barham, Hillman (before injury, anyone have an update here?), Rolder, Brandt, Etta etc.

Was curious of others takes on the defense once you see the actual rankings in front of you? outside of the glaring 3rd down conversion percentage allowed that is.

The latest update on Bryce Underwood..

We're hearing LSU isn't overly concerned about it right now but they could be covering some tracks. If Joe Sloan takes the East Carolina job then that would immensely help Michigan. The Wolverines are definitely making overtures.

Insider FWIW on Underwood…

The significant NIL push, I’m told by multiple sources, is NOT related to Dave Portnoy and what he’s been discussing a few weeks ago.

This isn’t a shot at Dave or to suggest he’s full of it, more so that it’s to show that those in NIL circles, with the help of Sherrone Moore and Sean Magee, have really gotten their collective stuff together in terms of heading together in the right direction.

I do know Moore and those in NIL circles at Michigan have had conversations with Portnoy, multiple, but I have yet to hear anything to come of it. That’s not to say nothing is going to happen there, just that the Underwood push has been from different factors.

Again, this is NOT a shot at Dave or an attempt to downplay his words a few weeks ago. If he wants to talk NIL, I’ll be happy to listen!

Moore on pushing match after Moo

Check out this article from Detroit Free Press:

Michigan football's Sherrone Moore defends players: 'Our guys were doing the right thing'


This might be subscription, botton line Mullings was being a peace maker and pulling players apart. This has been confirmed by more than Coach Moore.

OT: Favorite places to visit in Ann Arbor

I have a colleague who actually attended UM for two years, but he says he never really explored the city during his time as a student. It has been many, many years since he’s been to Ann Arbor, but he’s taking his family there for thanksgiving this year. He asked me about the best spots to take his family to see in Ann Arbor. I don’t know the city very well as I’ve only been there for a handful of games in my life, so wanted to ask The Den your recommendations. Restaurant recommendations also welcome. Thanks for any feedback!
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