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A possible allocation of NIL funds

A possible allocation of NIL funds

Sort of a pseudo-intellectual (ie pure guesswork!!) analysis of how funds could be distributed to Michigan players under a base pay and one more year model. These figures do not include non-collective third party payments that certain players will be receiving that are not tied to one more year, the portal or a base pay for team members.

One More Year (1MY)

*Assuming Blake Corum, Kris Jenkins, Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan leaving for NFL.

JJ McCarthy-$3,500,000
QB: without a doubt the most important 1MY target. True difference-maker who cannot be replaced in the portal. His return would also be a magnet to get others to return as we would again be serious contenders. Depth of QBs in this NFL draft may help Michigan here as he would likely not be turning down early first round money in order to return.

Donovan Edwards-$400,000
Kalel Mullings-$200,000
RB: Good chance both return. Edwards did not have the year that was expected. That being said, he may be better suited for the NFL and, as a RB, the window to make an impact is a very small one. Mullings has a chance to he the go-to guy next season. If only one or neither return, their should be viable replacement options in the portal. Perhaps Etienne or Darius Taylor?

Roman Wilson-$400,000
AJ Barner-$200,000
Receivers: Seems as though Roman may be gone. But worth a shot. Should be several viable candidates in the portal. Would be nice to have Barner back but we have young talent waiting in the wings. We always seem to have tight ends.

Trente Jones, Myles Hinton, Kasen Barnhart, Drake Nugent-Pool of $450,000
OL: Not sure if any of the above are guaranteed NFLers. Younger kids such as Gio and Gentry will be ready to take the next step and have higher ceilings. And there is always the portal. So Michigan will not need to throw around a lot of cash to get at least my target of two of the above to return.

Braeden McGregor, Jaylen Harrell-Pool of $250,000
DE: Different types of edge prospects. Would like to see one of the two return. Replaceable with returnees and portal.

Junior Colson-$750,000
LB: Nice ceiling. Could benefit from another year in the program. After JJ he may be the toughest player on the list to replace.

Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Quinten Johmson-Pool of $ 500,000
Safeties: Need to have at least one return. Sabb and Berry ready to take the next step but we need more numbers. Moore may have one foot out the door. Paige may be best value here.

Assumed NIL funds available for football (This a very optimistic figure that probably does not reflect reality but aligns with the amount that Ryan Day said that Ohio State needed-which should be our benchmark). And since we don’t pay high school recruits this is all going to team members and transfers: $13 million per year

Total initial NIL funds allocated to One More Year: $6.65 million

Expected actual payout of NIL funds to One More Year: $5.6 million (much lower if JJ leaves)

NIL funds allocated to $40,00 base play for 120 roster players: $4.8 million

Total NIL to current players (base plus actual 1MY payouts): $10.4 million

NIL funds allocated to Portal: $2.6 million

Several factors go into assessing the NIL market value of 1MY targets:

1. What the target would likely be earning if he went to the NFL.

Under the NFL rookie wage scale, all first round picks will sign four-year deals, with the team having an option to extend the deal to a fifth year. After the first pick the salaries will drop consistently and the 31st pick in the first round will be able to sign a deal worth around $12.75 million.

All first round contracts are fully guaranteed. That is not the case for later rounds. In other words a later round draft pick could sign a multi-million dollar contract but if he is cut he likely gets little to nothing. So players not projected to be drafted in the first round need to appreciate that the potential for them to make more than the NFL minimum yearly salary of $750,000 is there, but they will need to make the team.

In the second round of the Draft, four year contracts will be worth between $6 million and $12 million. The first pick in the third round can sign a deal worth $6.25 million while the last pick in the third will have to settle for a $5.4 million deal.
Fourth rounders will get between $4.5 million and $5.4 million. Fifth rounders will all get more than $4 million and less than $5 million. The first pick in the sixth round will get $4.1 million and the last pick in the sixth (No. 217) will get $3.98 million. Slightly more than $3.925 million that Mr. Irrelevant, pick No. 259, will make.

2. Longevity. NFL careers are quickly perishable, especially for certain positions such as RB. An extra year or three (with free covid year) in college will delay the start of their NFL careers while their bodies keep on taking a licking and risking injury. One of the reasons why it may be time for a Blake Corum to move on to the NFL.

3. Is the player actually ready to leave for the NFL, or would an extra year in development be in his best interest irrespective of NIL?

4. The player’s replacement factor. How easily can the player’s production be replaced by returning players or through the portal/recruiting?

5. Some players just love the college experience and would return with no NIL. Team culture also plays a huge role here.

6. How good will the team be in 2024 and are there goals that the players have yet to reach? This is critical. Last year’s 1MY targets had the perfect mix. Part of a great team that failed in the playoffs plus a chance for a strong core to return in 2023 and hopefully win it all. We still don’t know how 2023 will end. Winning it all could be a two-edged sword. By reaching their team goals players would be more open to moving to the NFL. And if Michigan fails? I think that JJ is the key. If he returns Michigan will be much stronger next season and he would be a magnet for others to return/transfer in.

7. The final wild card in this mix is who will be coaching Michigan next season. At least there is a certain degree of certainty that if it is not Jim it will be his known and trusted agent, and Michigan legend, Moore.

Recruiting Gatlin Bair officially decommits from Boise State; shifts attention to Michigan and Oregon

2024 four-star receiver Gatlin Bair announced his decommitment from Boise State Friday night and will shift his attention to Michigan and Oregon in his recruitment.

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Certainly a tight race between the Wolverines and Ducks here, but Bair liked everything about his trip to Ann Arbor for The Game this past weekend

JJ McCarthy recruiting

I didn't follow recruiting as much years past can someone remind me how the JJ recruiting played out? I see a lot about how OSU was on him as well but Day went with McCord instead. Did we really only get JJ because Day passed on him or is that a Buckeye folklore thinking they can have whomever they want but in fact he actually chose MI over OSU on his own.

So during our long path walk this morning with my Sheepadoodle Quinn, I ran the game through my head..and still feel the same..

about the game tonite. Still see a vanilla snoozer of Michigan getting up fast by Blitzkrieging Iowa by aggressively downfield throwing in the first quarter until Michigan is up by an insurmountable 3 score lead over Iowa’s classic 1975 B1G Ten tribute offense that hasn’t a chance in this hellish world of coming back from 21 down. We will see a ton of Mullings in the second half, and the rest of the RBs, because Jim will save Blake and Donovan for the CFP. If it’s 21-0, and Michigan’s first drive in the 3rd results in a 28-0 score, JJ, Loveland, Wilson, and every other critical starter will be pulled, and Michigan will drag out every play clock down to the last seconds before handing the ball off the rest of the game, with a couple of play action pass completions over an Iowa offense packed in close to sell out to stop the run, which will blow the game wide open to 42-0. Jim plays all 74 guys who travelled. Back up QB and monstrously sized grown a$$ man looking guy Alex Ojri (sp?) breaks away on a simple QB sweep right for a 75 yard jaunt to the endzone while pulling away from defenders looking like an Eric Dickerson highlight for a 49-0 score before the 4th quarter, and Jim is more than happy to just bleed the clock running right up he A and B gaps 3 times and then punting the rest of the game. Of course, the fourth string defensive backfield gives up a late desperation heave TD to a doubled covered Iowa WR as we can’t believe the safety or the CB didn’t intercept the ball. Iowa goes for 2 with 30 seconds in the game.

All the starters go back in for the victory formation that JJ does something with the ball toss back to Wilson that’s a wee bit disrespectful..which I love. B1G champs..yeah yeah. There won’t even be a conference championship game soon. On to the CFP…only 2 games man…they gotta stay frosty for 2 more games. The gotta hit right off the bat and yell, “we all willing to die for this shite..are you?” That’s the championship level..a total disregard for yourself to make the play that could seal the win. I feel Michigan is in total sync in that department. There is no team more motivated than the Wolverines. They don’t have to get up for the game, they have to be restrained before being let loose.

My junior year we had a team with 6 Div I players and had that unified angry caged bear attitude where we just overpowered teams after dropping our first out of our league game. We were sure we were gonna win it all, until we played our semifinal game at the old Vet in Philly. It was a bitter cold day, but the primary factor we lost was we played on grass for the last 2 years, and suddenly we are playing on basically concrete with a layer of fake patio grass covering it. I have no idea how the Eagles played football on that field, because by the 3rd Quarter my elbows were so bruised and battered I couldn’t extend my arms. We were all thrown off our game and lost 13-3, and all I could think about was getting off that field as quickly as possible. Just thinking about that game makes my elbows ache.

Fortunately Michigan won’t have to play in November of 1984 in Philadelphia.

This game is one where the score is misleading as Michigan will be just trying to shorten the game and score on accident.

Argus Prediction: The most pedestrian 49-6 blowout we ever witnessed that will have the least drama possible..like watching your dad rake leaves because there is nothing good on TV. The 10mg Valium B1G Ten Championship.

I would love to hear an EPL chant tonight…

I lived In UK for 12 years and am a huge Arsenal supporter. I always loved when a referee screwed up and 50,000 people started chanting “the referee’s a wanker…” over and over. It would be so cool if everyone chanted “Petitti is a wanker. Petitti is a wanker” during the trophy ceremony if we prevail. I can dream…. So much more sophisticated than the “**** Petito” chant we are likely to hear.

My son picked up on Twitter that Small Titty is trying to get someone else to do the trophy presentation for him. If so he will forever be a coward. Should be fun to watch.

UNLV

Wanted to get people’s opinion on this. Does UNLV get ranked in tomorrow’s final CFP rankings if they beat Boise today and win their conference with a 10-3 record?

They did beat a decent Air Force team (8-4), but have also lost to Fresno State (8-4) and San Jose State (7-5).

I don’t think they do, but it’d be funny if they did get ranked for all the naysayers regarding Michigan’s OOC schedule.
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OT: For those who use the scientific method to seek truth: theorists, forensic archaeologists, scientists, Military analysts, Medical researchers..

or any academic or professional field that uses the facts of a long historical past to analyze a point of the actions of a crisis event, let’s use the Covid Pandemic, which lead to some seismic cultural changes, like many companies getting rid of the concept of the office/business building that all their employees had to gather together every day..largely because that’s the way it had always been done. Many companies are allowing their employees to work from home, meet on line in a group software program, and work far more efficiently than all 2000 employees compressed together in floors filed with cubicles. There’s also the added benefit of no longer needing a 20 story building of huge expense that requires electricity, water, and natural gas for heat, the money eating but essential large air conditioning, State, City, and Federal taxes on corporate propert, and a dozen other “critical, must have” profit eating building expenses a company with a huge staff that all work remotely saves the company serious money…build maintenance and operating costs are a huge parasitic drain on a yearly budget that has no return on often expensive manditory “costs of doing business“

There is universal agreement that in a tertiary corporation, the need for a single large office building or complex has been proven to be an inefficient, anti-employee environment relic of the past. It’s the same with our centralized school system. It is far more efficient and cost effective to eliminate the “large School” model and hold classes remotely than pay for busing, building maintenance, immense school costs of providing text books (the prices of which are ridiculous), and the money spent on the basic bills we all pay, just for a whole school district of old money pit schools. Nobody is disputing what the facts are.

But let’s say your a theoretical physicist, and within your field, a large group of younger millennial physicists start a break off faction of “revisionists” who are attempting to write an alternate history based on collecting scraps of information to formulate a theory that Einstein didn’t write those 4 papers starting with the E=mc2 theory, the “fabric” of space-time can be warped by matter and energy, and the big one: that space-time is relative rather than absolute, as an objects movement and how it experiences time is relative to the objects around it..(at least that’s how I remember it states), we’re all actually written by his wife, who was also a scientist but I believe was incapable of creating such creative revolutionary world-changing discoveries when you investigate her academic past. Imagine that facts don’t matter to these “Revisionists” who are antithetical to empiricists..they create an alternate conclusion and search for the slightest obscure evidence to support it, or they’ll look for unrelated events to say “well conditions here and actions there support our revisionist view..dismissing decades of data collected by us “Orthodox” - a sarcastic label professionals that don’t deal in unsubstantiated alternate theories based on assumption, supposition, and pseudo science. That was going on in field, a civil war between us “Orthodox” historians..an implication that we don’t think for ourselves, and the “Revisionists” who think they’re writing the New Testament and painting all past research as just reenforcing the so called “Party Line”. If you haven’t experienced this in your field, I can’t tell you how insipidly untenable it is to get in a “debate”…it’s hard to debate history with a millennial with a bachelors from Kutztown University about anything..about “Who really started the Cold War“

This was a very controversial argument when the revisionist faction began to question the facts of The War Scare of 1946. I could go into great detail but these are the facts.1). Soviet officials had stated their western counterparts that the Soviets were serious about the eradication of capitalism in Europe. 2). with his country in ruins, Stalin was targeting taking over the Middle East by first expanding deep in the Balkans, broke the “Naughty Agreement“ made behind the Americans back to carve up Europe into countries of influence by the Soviets or the west. The British sold out the Poles to the Russians in exchange for Greece and the other Mediterranean countries to ensure British domination of the Middle East..which Stalin broke immediately and started a civil war between the communists and the majority that were not. Even further, Stalin was desperate to expand to dominate the Middle East to gain access to all the oil reserves while Russian oilfields in the south were utterly destroyed and would take a decade to repair. Stalin began to amass forces and threaten to invade Turkey, which would kick down the gate a give Stalin a free path to Iran, Iraq, and the rest of the oil rich gulf states. However, they falsely assumed that England and the US relations would become strained to the ambitions of the already dead foreign policy of Imperialism, and the United States wouldn’t come to Britain’s aid if the Soviets invaded the Middle East. They were wrong. They first underestimated severely the conviction in the leadership and toughness of Harry Truman, who responded in a major show of force by sending almost all of the Atlantic fleet into the waters between Turkey and where Stalin was massing his forces, then making an official proclamation that any attack on Turkey would be cause for the United States and its allies to declare War on the Soviets and attack with the full might of the American Military. What Truman was saying to Stalin is if you think we won’t drop atomics on your forces..turning them into beaded glass, we won’t stop until we nuke the Kremlin. What Stalin didn’t know is America could build maybe 3-4 bombs at best, not enough to accomplish what he implied in Truman’s very stern response, and the American public, after 2 World Wars of sacrificing American boys in a War not of our making, would be apoplectic about becoming embroiled in another European war less than a year after WWII ended. Truman was an experienced poker player and knew logistically Stalin couldn’t supply the “Red Steamroller“ with just the basics of fuel, ammunition, air cover, or even feed his troops attempting to invade the Middle East.

For Stalin, his army was in shambles after pushing the Nazis back to Berlin. Sukov…their celebrated general, was no tactical genius. He was a butcher who figured he would overwhelm the Nazis with his endless supply of soldiers who faced being machine gunned if they didn’t advance..even when 1 out of 3 soviet solders weren’t given a rifle. They were expected to pick up one from a dead comrade while continuing with a frontal assault. The Nazis could not replace losses like the Soviets could. With few exceptions, the Nazis won the battles but couldn’t hold their positions…like The Battle of Kursk. Fast forward to Stalin’s desperate plan to kick the British and the Americans out of the Middle East, and have all the oil they needed while they repaired their infrastructure… he was counting on the Americans to return to their traditional isolationist foreign policy…if he was wrong, he would have to suffer the humiliation of having to fold his bluff and pull back all his forces out of the region in bitter defeat on the world stage. This event is generally considered to be the start of the Cold War, when Stalin pulled back, gave up on propagating a world wide communist revolution , and tightened his control over the Soviet Bloc nations while concentrating on rapidly rebuild his military as well as his country’s infrastructure. Us “Orthodox“ historians, going by Stalin’s history of turning on his allies immediately, the boldly declared objective of destroying capitalism on the European continent and expanding from there, and his breaking of treaties to take over the Balkans and arm/support communism revolution in Greece, overwhelming evidence shows that Stalin’s desperate aggression to grab as much territory as they can while Britain was a “spent power” and the US was in the middle of pulling out of Europe and cutting down their military forces in what they mistakenly believed was out of economic necessity. He gambled and crapped out, embarrassed and determined to wage a war against the West whenever possible through proxy wars and espionage..a Cold War. This is what happened, the facts are indisputable Stalin’s expansionist policy post WWII was the direct cause of the cold war…unless your a Revisionist.

The revisionist theory is that Stalin was actually an “anti-revolutionary“ who was trying to make a lasting peace with the west. It was the aggression of Truman that they blame for the Cold War, which I would have to consider to look for any real hard data or at newly discovered facts, like a release of declassified communications between Stalin and his advisers discussing how to approach the western powers with this “peace agreement“. I must consider any and all verified facts that support the revisionist theory, but there is zero evidence that this “peace agreement“ was ever an idea in Stalin’s murderous paranoid head. Yet that didn’t stop them from publishing a book drawing evidence by the manufactured correlations of a Polish trade treaty with Britain, and a Czechoslovakian trade show to show the west the were open for business, formulating a theory from those and other unrelated facts to boldy make a totally manufactured collection of “facts” that Stalin didn’t intend to rule the soviet bloc states with an iron fist, when the fact was the Soviets were in such disarray in 1946 they couldn’t impose their will upon them until they secured access to oil, and rebuilt their armies.
This Revisionist movement doesn’t exist in academia, they’d be quickly and cruelly discredited if a revisionist attempted to admit such work as serious research to be peer reviewed. No..revisionism exists, and of course thrives, in popular “History” books for pop culture casuals that shop at Barnes and Noble and love the antithetical revisionist genre. It has been around for nearly twenty years and the movement is a plague upon true works of accurate historical accounts based on years of intense collection and analysis of primary source data..not stolen from some other historians hard work. Yet the Revisionist faction is more popular than ever. It infuriates me to the point that I want to show up at their book signings and bum rush the show by forcing them to defend their faux beliefs in a battle of brain pans.

Just interested if any other field of study is facing this kind anti-intellectual adversary faction as historians are.

- Thanks Argus
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  • Poll
Which was your favorite Michigan win?

What is your favorite Michigan win?

  • ohio soft 2021

    Votes: 33 42.9%
  • ohio softer 2022

    Votes: 13 16.9%
  • ohio softest 2023

    Votes: 31 40.3%
  • All of the above.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

For me it is 2023.

I view it as one of the most important wins in program history.

The media mob hit for over a month.

The nonstop drivel from these jokes in the media.

  • Poll
Buckeye trees sue to get mascot changed

Which Tree and nut combo should Ohio State switch to?

  • Filbert/Hazelnut

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Brazil

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Walnut

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Pine

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Almond

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Cashew

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Pecan

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • None of the above. Switch to legumes.

    Votes: 8 61.5%
  • Chestnut

    Votes: 1 7.7%

Buckeye trees have been very displeased with the way they have been represented by A Ohio state university, and they want their name, image, and likeness removed permanently.

Insider This Week in The Den 12/1

Haven't done one of these in a while. News has been flowing so fast over the last month or so anything we'd recap would be immediately outdated. With things slowing down, felt like this week was a good time to bring it back.

Here's what we've posted this week inside The Den from an intel standpoint.

11/27: Intel: On Jim Harbaugh's contract and where things stand

Nothing new to report on Jim Harbaugh's contract situation and the NCAA investigation other than what I posted on Monday.

Here it is in full below:

Did some asking around about Jim Harbaugh's contract situation moving forward and was able to get a better sense of where things stand and the expectations moving forward.

I continue to feel confident that a deal between Michigan and Jim Harbaugh will get done in the near future. I hope to get more specifics on that soon but no one seems to be wavering in that regard. If I had to turn it into a football analogy, Michigan is in the red zone and driving in terms of completion.

There was talk about waiting until the university receives a Notice of Allegations from the NCAA to make sure there weren't any surprises in there. However, confidence is high that the evidence the NCAA claims to have won't be damning to derail any kind of extension talk between Harbaugh and U-M.

Let me be clear, the talks were never "on hold" and Santa Ono and Warde Manuel wanted to wait until after the investigation wrapped up. Harbaugh was fully aware of this and it hasn't discouraged him or his camp one bit.

There is a push from higher-ups in the university to get this deal done sooner. When will that be? I hope to find out soon.

I will add, that the NCAA said it would wrap up its investigation by the end of November.

While the timing with this week and the investigation line up, it's not a slam-dunk deal it gets done in the next few days. With that said, this certainly feels like only a matter of time at this point.

On a different note, there is also a push by the AD to lock up Sherrone Moore and make sure he's taken care of. Again, Moore has shown zero desire to leave and has done nothing but share his love for the program and for Jim Harbaugh. That tells you all you need to know. I suspect Moore will come after the Harbaugh extension is done and dusted.

We have been told that Moore has also turned down at least one job interview opportunity within the last few days.

Things seem to be on the same track moving forward.

More when I have it.


Continue to feel good about this deal getting done but I am hesitant to buy into any timelines until I get something more concrete. It feels like the goalposts continue to get moved. It'll get done when it gets done and I'll continue to stress patience here.

As far as the NCAA stuff, no one I have spoken to has heard anything new regarding the investigation, so I can't say with certainty that the investigation stage of the process is officially wrapped up just yet.

Will continue to dig on it.

11/28: Michigan offers DT portal prospect

Michigan extended an offer to Penn's Joey Slackman. Slackman is planning to set up a visit and hopes to do so soon. I expect U-M to be in contention if they push for him.

Full update is below:

Michigan isn’t wasting any time in the transfer portal, with the program extending an offer to UPenn DT Joey Slackman.

He was an All-Ivy League first-team selection this season and had 50 tackles, including 12 tackles for loss and 4 sacks.

I caught up with Slackman to get a sense of where things stand.

- He was happy to receive the offer from one of the best programs in college football.
- He is hoping to learn more about the scheme and how he would potentially fit into the culture. He’s also wanting to spend time with coaches as well.

“I’m looking to learn about their scheme more, where I fit among the interior DL’s, along with what grad programs are best for me,” Slackman said. “They are an awesome place to be and I’m looking forward to meeting the rest of the staff.”

He definitely sees Michigan as a potential fit but will need to visit before thinking about things further. He doesn’t have a date set in stone but is in the process of setting it up.

He has one year of eligibility remaining.

**Side Update**
I do not expect Tobias Merriweather to be much of a factor, I reported U-M would inquire but I do not see that working out now. Things change.

11/30: On Will Johnson

It sounds as if Will Johnson will be a game-time decision for U-M on Saturday. He did practice this week but was limited.
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