Stat Junkie Stuff: Estimating the MSU Rushing Yardage for Today (POW!)

[BlueMonster]

What do the stats tell us about how effectively will Sparty run the ball today?

Punchline: MSU Total Rushing Yardage Estimate - 84 yards on 35 carries

Michigan Yards/Carry Defense
................Vs. Michigan......Season Avg.........Percent of Avg
Florida:........... 0.4..................4.1..........................9.7%
Cincinnati:...... 2.3..................3.5........................65.7%
Air Force.........3.4..................4.6........................73.9%
Purdue............1.5..................4.1........................36.6%
Averages.........2.2..................4.1.......................53.6%
Michigan is only allowing opponents HALF of the yards / carry average

MSU Yards / Rush Estimate
MSU yards / rush Season average = 4.5 Yards / Carry
Michigan yards/rush Defense Effectiveness = 53.6% (see above)
Expected MSU yards / Rush = 2.4 Yds / Carry
Note: Vs Iowa MSU averaged 2.2 yards / carry so my estimate may be conservative.

MSU Rush Yardage Estimate
Best Guess number of carries = 35 (MSU averaging about 40 carries/game...but not today)
MSU Total Rushing Yardage Estimate - 84 yards on 35 carries
I would not be surprised to see this number closer to 60 yards

 

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