History vs. Michigan:
Michigan leads all-time series 71-37-5
Last meeting: 2020 at Michigan 2019 at Michigan - 44-10 Michigan
This Season:
at Northwestern - W 38-21
vs Youngstown State - W 42-14
at #24 (lol) Miami - W 38-17
vs Nebraska - W 23-20
vs Western Kentucky - W 48-31
at Rutgers - W 31-13
at Indiana - W 20-15
Michigan leads all-time series 71-37-5
Last meeting:
This Season:
at Northwestern - W 38-21
vs Youngstown State - W 42-14
at #24 (lol) Miami - W 38-17
vs Nebraska - W 23-20
vs Western Kentucky - W 48-31
at Rutgers - W 31-13
at Indiana - W 20-15
Quarterback: Payton Thorne 6'2" 210 lbs (RS So.)
Thorne has completed 112 of 183 passes (61.2%) with 1,701 yards, 15 TDs and 4 INTs. He also has 96 yards rushing with 2 scores and a longest of 22 yards.
Running Backs: Kenneth Walker III 5'10" 210 lbs (Jr.) & Jordon Simmons 5'11'' 195 lbs (So.)
Walker has 152 rushes for 997 yards (6.6ypc) with 9 TDs and a long of 94. He's also had 5 catches for 25 yards and a TD with a longest of 13. Simmons has carried the ball 37 times for 187 yards (4.9ypc) with a long of 24. He's added 4 receptions for 30 yards and a TD with a long of 14.
Wide Receivers: Jayden Reed 6'0" 185 lbs (RS Jr.), Jalen Nailor 6'0" 190 lbs (RS Jr.) & Tre Mosley 6'2" 195 lbs (RS So.)
Reed has 27 receptions for 562 yards, 5 TDs and a long of 85 yards. He's added 42 yards rushing on 6 attempts with a TD and a long of 12. Nailor has had 27 catches for 512 yards with a long of 65 and 6 TDs. Mosley has had 21 catches for 321 yards and a long of 51.
Tight End: Connor Heyward 5'11" 234 lbs (RS Sr.)
Heyward has totaled 3 catches for 28 yards and a long of 16 yards.
Left Tackle: Jarrett Horst 6'6" 305 lbs (RS Jr.)
27 career starts.
Left Guard: J.D. Duplain 6'4" 305 lbs (Jr.)
17 career starts.
Center: Matt Allen 6'2" 311 lbs (RS Sr.)
24 career starts.
Right Guard: Kevin Jarvis 6'6" 325 lbs (RS Sr.)
34 career starts.
Right Tackle: AJ Arcuri 6'6" 304 lbs (RS Sr.)
19 career starts.
Defensive Tackles: Jacob Slade 6'4" 315 lbs (RS Jr.) & Simeon Barrow 6'2'' 285 lbs (RS Fr.)
Slade has 22 tackles with 2 behind the line of scrimmage, 1 sack, 1 pass deflection and a fumble recovery. Barrow has 23 tackles with 2.5 for a loss, 2.5 sacks, a pass deflection and a forced fumble.
Defensive Ends: Jacub Panasiuk 6'3'' 246 lbs (RS Sr.) & Jeff Pietrowski 6'1" 250 lbs (So.)
Panasiuk has compiled 23 tackles which includes 8.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 pass deflection a forced fumble and recovered fumble. Pietrowski has 20 tackles with 4 for loss, 3.5 sacks, and a forced and recovered fumble.
Outside Linebackers: Quavaris Crouch 6'2" 230 lbs (Jr.) & Noah Harvey 6'4" 235 lbs (RS Sr.)
MSU rarely deploys 3 linebackers on a play. Crouch has totaled 52 tackles with 2 for negative yardage, 2 sacks, 2 pass breakups, a forced fumble and fumble recovery. Harvey has a total of 7 tackles including 1 for a loss and a sack.
Middle Linebacker: Cal Haladay 6'1'' 235 lbs (RS Fr.)
Haladay has 48 tackles on the season, 2.5 tackles for a loss, an interception, 2 pass breakups, a forced fumble and fumble recovered.
Nickel: Michael Dowell 6'1" 215 lbs (RS Jr.)
Dowell has 32 tackles, 2 for a loss and 3 pass breakups.
Cornerbacks: Ronald Williams 6'2'' 185 lbs (RS Sr.) & Chester Kimbrough 6'0" 180 lbs (Jr.)
Williams has 23 tackles with 2 for a loss, a sack, 4 pass breakups and an INT. Kimbrough has had 23 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, a sack, 2 pass breakups, an INT and a forced and recovered fumble.
Safeties: Xavier Henderson 6'0" 206 lbs (Sr.) & Angelo Grose 5'10" 180 lbs (So.)
Henderson leads the teams with 60 tackles on the season with 7 tackles for a loss to go along with 1 sack, 1 INT, a pass breakup and a forced fumble. Grose has contributed with 53 tackles, 0.5 for a loss, an INT and 6 pass breakups.
Punter and Kicker: Bryce Baringer 6'1" 200 lbs (RS Sr.) & Matt Coghlin 5'9" 190 lbs (RS Sr.)
Baringer has 31 punts with an average of 49.2 yards and a long of 67. 8 were fair caught and 11 were downed inside the 20 with 7 touchbacks. Coghlin is 10/15 on the year with a long of 51. He's 41/58 on his career with a long of 47.
Returners: Jayden Reed 6'0" 185 lbs (RS Jr.)
Reed is averaging 23.3 yards on 9 punt returns with a long of 88 and 2 TDs. He's also returned 8 kicks with an average of 26.0 yards and a long of 41.
Players to watch:
QB - Payton Thorne
RB - Kenneth Walker III
WR - Jayden Reed
DE - Jacub Panasiuk
S - Xavier Henderson
Prediction:
Michigan State is a great unknown. They're clearly better than bad teams but how good are they? Michigan has a chance to let the country know.
Yes, they're 7-0 and while they technically may have a better win than Michigan (on the road against a hilariously ranked Miami at the time), their overall body of work has not been quite as impressive.
Michigan State has played opponents that have a combined record of 19-30 overall and 3-24 against Power 5 opponents.. Factor out their game against MSU and their opponents are 19-23 overall and 3-19 against power opponents.
Meanwhile Michigan's opponents are sitting at 27-25 overall with a record of 9-21 against power 5 opponents which is a solid 27-18 overall and 9-16 against power 5 opponents outside of their defeats to Michigan. Not only has Michigan objectively played a tougher schedule thus far, they're outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points while MSU is outscoring opponents by an average of 15.6 points.
If we can agree on Michigan probably being the better team, we should be able to agree that they should win. There's an overplayed trope that MSU always shows up and plays us well. I hold the belief that for a significant chunk of history, including the last 10 years, the better team almost always wins this game.
2020: First of all, I don't even consider this a legitimate game but even if it were, can we truly say Michigan was any better than MSU last season? More talented, sure. But certainly not better.
2019: Michigan wins 44-10.
2018: Michigan wins 21-7 and MSU has 93 yards of offense
2017: The outlier. Michigan certainly wasn't great this season but should have won that game. Perhaps the elements or just bad QB play did us in, not MSU playing amazing.
2016: It was a 30-10 game halfway through the 4th quarter, never in doubt.
2015: Certainly one Michigan should have won obviously but can we truly say Michigan was the better team that season? I don't think so.
2013-2014: Goes without saying
2011-2012: Pretty much toss-ups (in hindsight) with split victories
And so on..
Michigan State's got a scary offense at times but also shows signs of complete ineptitude. The 2nd half against Nebraska they had ZERO first downs. Their last outing against Indiana saw 241 yards of offense. Nebraska held them to 254. Both of these games saw MSU pick up less than 3 yards per carry. If Nebraska and Indiana can figure out ways to shut down MSU, I really do like Michigan's chances despite how questionable our deep ball defending may be. Their receivers are dangerous but have been dealt with quite well by these teams as well. Nailor is a nice player but 50% of his touchdown and nearly 50% of his yardage came from the Rutgers game alone and 2 of those long scores were on plays that if Michigan's defense allowed, we'd be in big trouble all season long.
Payton Thorne potentially can do some damage but if Michigan generates pressure, as with most QB's, the odds of this go down significantly. In the Youngstown State, Miami and Rutgers games alone Thorne has 11 touchdowns, 1 interception and 880 yards. In a larger sample size, including against some pretty weak defenses, he's shown a tendency to be more average. He has 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions with 821 yards and a completion percentage around at 60% in the other 4 games. 3 of his INTs coming in the last 2 games including 2 against Indiana.
Defensively, Michigan State is really suspect. They rack up a lot of sacks that tend to kill some drives with these and timely turnovers but they are rough in between. Every single opponent MSU has played and keep in mind this includes Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana (without Penix), WKU and Youngstown State.. All of them have had over 300 yards of offense against them. Only 3 have been held under 400 (Indiana had 322, Rutgers had 377 and Youngstown State 304).
Seriously, just look at the yards allowed and ask yourself how confident you'd be if this were Michigan's defense:
Northwestern: 400
Youngstown State: 304
Miami: 440
Nebraska: 442 (outgained MSU)
Western Kentucky: 560 (outgained MSU)
Rutgers: 377
Indiana: 322 (outgained MSU)
Most of this has come through the air but everybody outside of Miami and Western Kentucky have picked up over 3.0 yards per carry against MSU as well and everyone but Miami and WKU have gotten over 100 yards on the ground against them. If Youngstown State can pick up 3.7 per carry, so can Michigan and then some, even if MSU tries to stop it in my opinion. I'm aware our seemingly biggest weakness on offense is going against theirs on defense (passing) but I think Cade is capable if given time, if we even have to get to that. MSU will get some big plays but the staple of our defense has been bend don't break.
Don't turn it over, capitalize in the redzone and don't completely crap the bed on defense and this one could be decided in the 3rd quarter. However, weird things do tend to happen in these types of games so maybe it's a game for a tad longer than any of us are comfortable with but in the end, the better team wins as usual and puts one more on the board near the end to make it hurt.
Michigan wins 34-17
This years predictions:
41-17 vs WMU (47-14 actual)
31-20 vs Washington (31-10 actual)
45-16 vs NIU (63-10 actual)
48-10 vs Rutgers (20-13 actual)
20-24 at Wisconsin (38-17 actual)
35-24 at Nebraska (32-29 actual)
42-10 vs Northwestern (33-7 actual)
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