The latest edition of INSIDE THE FORT, including plenty of football, basketball and recruiting information.
Starting with football and Saturday night’s big game in Happy Valley …
The last time we spoke to people close to the program before a game at Penn State was two years ago, and they said they were confidence Michigan would play well in Happy Valley.
They obviously didn’t.
This time around we can say with confidence that they had a very good week of practice. These guys seem to understand it's the season on the line and everything they worked for in the offseason is at stake.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh wasn’t blowing smoke when he spoke of an energy in the building, and they know what it’s going to take to win. They also know a great week of practice means nothing if it doesn’t translate to the field.
“They can’t make the mistakes, and that’s been an emphasis all year — even more so this week,” our source close to it said.
Another source, a former All-American (and no, not analyst Doug Skene), believes the play up front on offense will determine U-M’s fate in this one. Many want to lay the offense’s issues on quarterback Shea Patterson’s feet, but a handful in the building are more concerned about the line — specifically, the interior (and yes, that includes all three, including senior right guard Mike Onwenu, who was recently named a PFF.com and midseason All-American).
PFF analyst Josh Liskiewicz explained why Onwenu has been so impressive on their grading scale.
“His overall grade is 81.8 [64 is considered average] and so is his pass blocking grade, while his run blocking grade is 83.1,” Liskiewicz said. “Eighty-five for us is elite, so he’s right there. A little more consistency from him in all facets will get him there.
“Onwenu has only allowed six pressures all year in pass pro to go along with no sacks. The only two games where he’s given up more than one pressure were against Wisconsin and Iowa, and let’s be honest, those have been the only two real opponents Michigan has faced so far. It’s not like had awful games against those two, though.
“In general, he’s been solid and only needs to work on a couple mental errors here and there, and I think he can remain among the elite. When we do an All-American list, we’re not worried about left guard/right guard; considering he’s an All-American on there, he’s either the first or second [best guard in the country].”
That’s high praise. At the same time, in searching for our own answers on what’s wrong with U-M’s offense, we reached out to a handful of experts who played up front, including a Pro Bowler and our All-American. They all agreed that the interior of the line just isn’t doing enough job getting push at the line of scrimmage.
That’s been the main concern of someone close to the offense, too, and it’s something that needs to change if the Wolverines are going to compete with the big boys on the schedule … even teams like Indiana and Michigan State.
Said one (and please be clear here — we were not looking for criticisms of any player or position group. We asked our experts — and these guys are some of the best of the best — what was wrong with the offense):
“Everyone wants to blame Patterson when he’s not keeping on the read option. The problem is, that decision gets harder when there’s no push … it’s about more than just reading the end,” he said. “A lot of times, too, they’re not blocking well enough on the backside of the play.”
Junior center Cesar Ruiz hasn’t played close to his ceiling, he added (“he’s not playing to his athleticism” was the quote), senior left guard Ben Bredeson is the most consistent when it comes to playing hard and to the whistle but has been just “okay” overall, while Onwenu has moments in which he can dominate, but too often doesn’t.
That’s caused teams to realize they can play the Wolverines more straight up and still win at the line of scrimmage (we saw one instance of it against Iowa, when the line got zero push against a four-man front, and color analyst Joel Klatt called them out for not being able to get a hat on a hat).
“Bad footwork,” another one of our analysts we asked to break down the film told us. “Missteps, false steps … those things lead to the lack of push we’re seeing on a consistent basis.”
“They’re also playing too high, too often,” another said.
It needs to be better — much better — if Michigan is going to win in Happy Valley.
And (edit), to be clear, we are NOT absolving anyone of blame. Anyone can see quarterback Shea Patterson has been part of the problem with turnovers and not running the offense efficiently enough.
On a more positive note, there’s been great competition among the underclass linemen, and they still really like the potential of several. Guard Nolan Rumler is going to be a good one in time — “he’s not picking it up as quickly as expected, but he’ll be great when he gets it,” one source said — and tackle Karsen Barnhart is the one who has shown the most in the early going among a great class of linemen.
We’ve also heard rumblings that another lineman who hasn't played as much could enter the transfer portal (no names), along with a player in the secondary.
It’s not junior cornerback Ambry Thomas, who was named midseason All-Americans by Pro Football Focus this week and has played at a very high level.
Liskiewicz broke that down:
“He only has one reception allowed in coverage longer than 13 yards. He hasn’t given up yards after catch more than 10 all year, and I think that was a short underneath pass last week against Illinois,” he said. “Thomas is not giving up big plays and is contributing against the run, with five run stops.
“The one thing I will caution with him — and this is typical of all corners — is that despite the number of reps he’s had, the sample size with him in coverage is pretty minimal. He’s only been targeted 20 times, and 13 of those were catchable or contestable, and he’s allowed nine receptions with two picks. He’s done really well in that area, though it’s not a huge sample size. ‘The more data, the better’ is what we always say, so let’s see how he pans out.
“When I watch him on film, I don’t think there’s anything he can’t do; he looks great in all facets. That coverage data doesn’t represent off-target throws, where it’s clear his coverage is very, very tight, regardless of whether it’s a catchable ball or not. I’ve been very impressed with Thomas’ overall work so far.”
While the defense, especially, has had its share of standouts week to week, none of them made PFF.com’s teams.
“I don’t think [any other Michigan players were close to making our All-American list],” he said. “I suspect [sophomore defensive end Aidan] Hutchinson is probably one of the higher-graded ends, just going off eyeball tests and without looking at the full data.
“I can’t imagine anyone else offensively being there, especially not the skill position players. While the line has been fine, I don’t think anyone else is near that caliber.”
Liskiewicz also gave his take on how he sees tomorrow’s game playing out, and attempted to assess U-M’s offensive struggles so far this season.
“I want to lean toward Penn State simply because of the environment, but it’s not like they’ve been particularly tested,” he explained. “Outside of their struggles against Pitt, they’ve handled their business a little bit better, but I don’t think they’ve faced a true opponent yet. With that being said, Michigan has faced one and got obliterated at Wisconsin, and had mighty struggles with others. That leads me to believe Penn State probably should be favored, though the nine-point spread seems to be a bit much.
“It’s tough to tell with this Michigan team where their psyche is at right now. We just don’t know what they’re going to do on offense, and I don’t just mean in terms of putting points on the board. It’s clear they’re not committing to Josh Gattis’ system full blown, and it’s a hodgepodge of everything.
“The skill players just don’t look fast or explosive — it’s about speed and creating separation, and those guys don’t do that. The quarterback situation is what it is, and isn’t good right now. It’s frustrating because some of those guys they’re depending on haven’t panned out the way everyone expected them to. I’m not sure what they’re doing scheme-wise, because they’re trying to do a little bit of everything right now. I don’t think this is anywhere near as talented a Penn State team from an athletic standpoint that we’ve seen the last few years, but I still think their defense has an advantage over Michigan’s offense.”
Finally, on injuries …
Most of those banged up returned last week, and we believe redshirt junior defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour is going to be play after getting banged up last week.
Penn State is very healthy as a whole heading into tomorrow’s game with Michigan, with BlueWhiteIllustrated’s Nate Bauer providing the latest news on the Nittany Lion injury front.
“With the return of [redshirt freshman receiver] Justin Shorter this past weekend, all of the absences are coming from reserves,” he said. “Penn State doesn’t discuss injuries publicly, but that means backup [redshirt sophomore] corner Donovan Johnson, who has dropped off the depth chart and meant the quick ascent of freshman Joey Porter, as well as receiver [redshirt sophomore] Cam Sullivan-Brown, who has been absent each of the past two weeks. Other than those two, Penn State has stayed pretty healthy this season.”
Michigan has obviously blown out Penn State in two of the last three meetings (42-7 last year and 49-10 in 2016), and Bauer was asked if revenge is an element that’s been discussed this week by the PSU players and coaches.
“I’ll just go straight to [Nittany Lion head coach] James Franklin’s quote after Penn State beat Purdue because I think it’s instructive of the mindset they want to have as a program,” Bauer began. “’That’s why our message is consistent. That’s why our approach is consistent. So that we have the best opportunity, I think, to be able to play at a high level as consistently as possible.
“But if it comes emotional and you’re finding ways to drive the team, you’re finding ways to get people angry and turn the opponent into a monster, we don’t do that. We focus on Penn State. We focus on our process and our approach. We respect all our opponents but we fear none.’
“The other point that I think is relevant particular to this game is that Penn State was badly wounded by that point in the season last year, both physically as well as mentally. Once Ohio State clipped them at the end of that game, they were just never the same and it compounded upon itself when Michigan State did the same thing the next week. Making matters worse for Penn State, Trace McSorley was really bruised and battered coming off the Iowa game that he had to exit for the second quarter.
“To combine the points, though, the reality is that the identity of last year’s Penn State team is gone. McSorley, Miles Sanders, Connor McGovern, Ryan Bates, Nick Scott, Amani Oruwariye and Shareef Miller all went in the draft and so what’s left is a group that largely is approaching this season with a fresh outlook. Of that game in Ann Arbor a year ago, only nine of the 22 starters on offense and defense will start on Saturday night.”
****
To basketball and recruiting now, starting with the Isaiah Todd recruitment …
Give Michigan head coach Juwan Howard credit — there is absolutely a buzz around the program right now, and Raleigh (N.C.) Word of God five-star Todd’s pledge certainly helps. Guys like five-star California shooting guard Josh Christopher and others have already expressed more interest after the Todd commitment, and that’s what such buzz accomplishes.
Rivals.com’s Eric Bossi agreed, though he doesn't believe Christopher (February official visitor) will end up at U-M.
“It helps, for sure. Kids want to paly with other top kids,” he said. “The mileage may vary on who is viable and how far down the road. They’re not going to magically get Josh Christopher because of [Todd].”
Arizona State and UCLA are still the most likely destinations.
As for Todd … we’ve said it, and people don't like to hear it, but while there’s been conflicting information with what’s been said privately, most we talk to strongly believe Todd will play overseas next year rather than enroll at Michigan.
“It’s 80-20 in my mind (favor of overseas),” one of our sources close to it said. “One coach who was involved at one point told me 99-1.”
A coach competing with the Wolverines for another recruit called it “85 percent” for overseas.
Of course, Todd’s decision isn’t imminent, he’s said a lot of the right things to the people that matter the most (and who took his commitment) and a final decision is a long way off.
Another somewhat interesting one — five-star wing Jaden Springer. One of our sources in Colorado for USA Basketball last week said Springer, long believed to be down to Tennessee and Memphis with U-M on the outside, loved his trip to Ann Arbor and everything about the program.
“I don’t know if he’d have the guts to tell his dad no, but Jaden wants to go to Michigan,” he said. “His family is pushing Tennessee hard, but he really, really liked the visit.”
That’s one that at least bears watching.
On four-star big man Hunter Dickinson, the seven-footer out of Hyattsville DeMatha — he’s at Duke this weekend and expected to get the full court press.
“Nobody knows where he’s going,” one source on a competing staff said. “Even the people at DeMatha don’t know, and they’re as close to it as anyone.”
They aren’t certain what the Todd pledge to Michigan does for U-M’s chances, either. The kid has played it extremely close to the vest, but it seems clear here Michigan has a very good shot.
Finally, we told you in last week’s ITF what we expected the offense to look like. As for the defense …
Ball screen coverage will be different, and we’d expect them to ‘ice’ pretty much all wing ball screen stuff, meaning the guard on the ball exaggerates his stance to the inside shoulder so much that the ball handler can’t use the screen to the middle, heavily forcing him to the baseline. The hedge guy then becomes the baseline help, something you see a lot in the NBA.
On the court, sophomore shooting guard David DeJulius and big man Colin Castleton have made legit jumps. DeJulius has had some really good practices. They are two of the top six, according to some, along with the big three and freshman Franz Wagner.
“It’s going to be interesting to see how they make that rotation work, particularly since I still don’t see Isaiah Livers as a three,” one close to it said.
Junior Eli Brooks has been solid, too, but one of our insiders likes DeJulius better.
“He creates off the bounce better and they’re not much different from a catch and shoot perspective standpoint,” she said. “I’m not sure about off the ball defensively. That’s the area Brooks might have the advantage, but DeJulius is a year older so may have figured that out.”
Keep in mind, it’s early. And the big question here is, can a guy used to being a lead guard and playing almost exclusively with the ball in his hands play next to Zavier Simpson and can he guard twos?
We’ll see.
Starting with football and Saturday night’s big game in Happy Valley …
The last time we spoke to people close to the program before a game at Penn State was two years ago, and they said they were confidence Michigan would play well in Happy Valley.
They obviously didn’t.
This time around we can say with confidence that they had a very good week of practice. These guys seem to understand it's the season on the line and everything they worked for in the offseason is at stake.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh wasn’t blowing smoke when he spoke of an energy in the building, and they know what it’s going to take to win. They also know a great week of practice means nothing if it doesn’t translate to the field.
“They can’t make the mistakes, and that’s been an emphasis all year — even more so this week,” our source close to it said.
Another source, a former All-American (and no, not analyst Doug Skene), believes the play up front on offense will determine U-M’s fate in this one. Many want to lay the offense’s issues on quarterback Shea Patterson’s feet, but a handful in the building are more concerned about the line — specifically, the interior (and yes, that includes all three, including senior right guard Mike Onwenu, who was recently named a PFF.com and midseason All-American).
PFF analyst Josh Liskiewicz explained why Onwenu has been so impressive on their grading scale.
“His overall grade is 81.8 [64 is considered average] and so is his pass blocking grade, while his run blocking grade is 83.1,” Liskiewicz said. “Eighty-five for us is elite, so he’s right there. A little more consistency from him in all facets will get him there.
“Onwenu has only allowed six pressures all year in pass pro to go along with no sacks. The only two games where he’s given up more than one pressure were against Wisconsin and Iowa, and let’s be honest, those have been the only two real opponents Michigan has faced so far. It’s not like had awful games against those two, though.
“In general, he’s been solid and only needs to work on a couple mental errors here and there, and I think he can remain among the elite. When we do an All-American list, we’re not worried about left guard/right guard; considering he’s an All-American on there, he’s either the first or second [best guard in the country].”
That’s high praise. At the same time, in searching for our own answers on what’s wrong with U-M’s offense, we reached out to a handful of experts who played up front, including a Pro Bowler and our All-American. They all agreed that the interior of the line just isn’t doing enough job getting push at the line of scrimmage.
That’s been the main concern of someone close to the offense, too, and it’s something that needs to change if the Wolverines are going to compete with the big boys on the schedule … even teams like Indiana and Michigan State.
Said one (and please be clear here — we were not looking for criticisms of any player or position group. We asked our experts — and these guys are some of the best of the best — what was wrong with the offense):
“Everyone wants to blame Patterson when he’s not keeping on the read option. The problem is, that decision gets harder when there’s no push … it’s about more than just reading the end,” he said. “A lot of times, too, they’re not blocking well enough on the backside of the play.”
Junior center Cesar Ruiz hasn’t played close to his ceiling, he added (“he’s not playing to his athleticism” was the quote), senior left guard Ben Bredeson is the most consistent when it comes to playing hard and to the whistle but has been just “okay” overall, while Onwenu has moments in which he can dominate, but too often doesn’t.
That’s caused teams to realize they can play the Wolverines more straight up and still win at the line of scrimmage (we saw one instance of it against Iowa, when the line got zero push against a four-man front, and color analyst Joel Klatt called them out for not being able to get a hat on a hat).
“Bad footwork,” another one of our analysts we asked to break down the film told us. “Missteps, false steps … those things lead to the lack of push we’re seeing on a consistent basis.”
“They’re also playing too high, too often,” another said.
It needs to be better — much better — if Michigan is going to win in Happy Valley.
And (edit), to be clear, we are NOT absolving anyone of blame. Anyone can see quarterback Shea Patterson has been part of the problem with turnovers and not running the offense efficiently enough.
On a more positive note, there’s been great competition among the underclass linemen, and they still really like the potential of several. Guard Nolan Rumler is going to be a good one in time — “he’s not picking it up as quickly as expected, but he’ll be great when he gets it,” one source said — and tackle Karsen Barnhart is the one who has shown the most in the early going among a great class of linemen.
We’ve also heard rumblings that another lineman who hasn't played as much could enter the transfer portal (no names), along with a player in the secondary.
It’s not junior cornerback Ambry Thomas, who was named midseason All-Americans by Pro Football Focus this week and has played at a very high level.
Liskiewicz broke that down:
“He only has one reception allowed in coverage longer than 13 yards. He hasn’t given up yards after catch more than 10 all year, and I think that was a short underneath pass last week against Illinois,” he said. “Thomas is not giving up big plays and is contributing against the run, with five run stops.
“The one thing I will caution with him — and this is typical of all corners — is that despite the number of reps he’s had, the sample size with him in coverage is pretty minimal. He’s only been targeted 20 times, and 13 of those were catchable or contestable, and he’s allowed nine receptions with two picks. He’s done really well in that area, though it’s not a huge sample size. ‘The more data, the better’ is what we always say, so let’s see how he pans out.
“When I watch him on film, I don’t think there’s anything he can’t do; he looks great in all facets. That coverage data doesn’t represent off-target throws, where it’s clear his coverage is very, very tight, regardless of whether it’s a catchable ball or not. I’ve been very impressed with Thomas’ overall work so far.”
While the defense, especially, has had its share of standouts week to week, none of them made PFF.com’s teams.
“I don’t think [any other Michigan players were close to making our All-American list],” he said. “I suspect [sophomore defensive end Aidan] Hutchinson is probably one of the higher-graded ends, just going off eyeball tests and without looking at the full data.
“I can’t imagine anyone else offensively being there, especially not the skill position players. While the line has been fine, I don’t think anyone else is near that caliber.”
Liskiewicz also gave his take on how he sees tomorrow’s game playing out, and attempted to assess U-M’s offensive struggles so far this season.
“I want to lean toward Penn State simply because of the environment, but it’s not like they’ve been particularly tested,” he explained. “Outside of their struggles against Pitt, they’ve handled their business a little bit better, but I don’t think they’ve faced a true opponent yet. With that being said, Michigan has faced one and got obliterated at Wisconsin, and had mighty struggles with others. That leads me to believe Penn State probably should be favored, though the nine-point spread seems to be a bit much.
“It’s tough to tell with this Michigan team where their psyche is at right now. We just don’t know what they’re going to do on offense, and I don’t just mean in terms of putting points on the board. It’s clear they’re not committing to Josh Gattis’ system full blown, and it’s a hodgepodge of everything.
“The skill players just don’t look fast or explosive — it’s about speed and creating separation, and those guys don’t do that. The quarterback situation is what it is, and isn’t good right now. It’s frustrating because some of those guys they’re depending on haven’t panned out the way everyone expected them to. I’m not sure what they’re doing scheme-wise, because they’re trying to do a little bit of everything right now. I don’t think this is anywhere near as talented a Penn State team from an athletic standpoint that we’ve seen the last few years, but I still think their defense has an advantage over Michigan’s offense.”
Finally, on injuries …
Most of those banged up returned last week, and we believe redshirt junior defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour is going to be play after getting banged up last week.
Penn State is very healthy as a whole heading into tomorrow’s game with Michigan, with BlueWhiteIllustrated’s Nate Bauer providing the latest news on the Nittany Lion injury front.
“With the return of [redshirt freshman receiver] Justin Shorter this past weekend, all of the absences are coming from reserves,” he said. “Penn State doesn’t discuss injuries publicly, but that means backup [redshirt sophomore] corner Donovan Johnson, who has dropped off the depth chart and meant the quick ascent of freshman Joey Porter, as well as receiver [redshirt sophomore] Cam Sullivan-Brown, who has been absent each of the past two weeks. Other than those two, Penn State has stayed pretty healthy this season.”
Michigan has obviously blown out Penn State in two of the last three meetings (42-7 last year and 49-10 in 2016), and Bauer was asked if revenge is an element that’s been discussed this week by the PSU players and coaches.
“I’ll just go straight to [Nittany Lion head coach] James Franklin’s quote after Penn State beat Purdue because I think it’s instructive of the mindset they want to have as a program,” Bauer began. “’That’s why our message is consistent. That’s why our approach is consistent. So that we have the best opportunity, I think, to be able to play at a high level as consistently as possible.
“But if it comes emotional and you’re finding ways to drive the team, you’re finding ways to get people angry and turn the opponent into a monster, we don’t do that. We focus on Penn State. We focus on our process and our approach. We respect all our opponents but we fear none.’
“The other point that I think is relevant particular to this game is that Penn State was badly wounded by that point in the season last year, both physically as well as mentally. Once Ohio State clipped them at the end of that game, they were just never the same and it compounded upon itself when Michigan State did the same thing the next week. Making matters worse for Penn State, Trace McSorley was really bruised and battered coming off the Iowa game that he had to exit for the second quarter.
“To combine the points, though, the reality is that the identity of last year’s Penn State team is gone. McSorley, Miles Sanders, Connor McGovern, Ryan Bates, Nick Scott, Amani Oruwariye and Shareef Miller all went in the draft and so what’s left is a group that largely is approaching this season with a fresh outlook. Of that game in Ann Arbor a year ago, only nine of the 22 starters on offense and defense will start on Saturday night.”
****
To basketball and recruiting now, starting with the Isaiah Todd recruitment …
Give Michigan head coach Juwan Howard credit — there is absolutely a buzz around the program right now, and Raleigh (N.C.) Word of God five-star Todd’s pledge certainly helps. Guys like five-star California shooting guard Josh Christopher and others have already expressed more interest after the Todd commitment, and that’s what such buzz accomplishes.
Rivals.com’s Eric Bossi agreed, though he doesn't believe Christopher (February official visitor) will end up at U-M.
“It helps, for sure. Kids want to paly with other top kids,” he said. “The mileage may vary on who is viable and how far down the road. They’re not going to magically get Josh Christopher because of [Todd].”
Arizona State and UCLA are still the most likely destinations.
As for Todd … we’ve said it, and people don't like to hear it, but while there’s been conflicting information with what’s been said privately, most we talk to strongly believe Todd will play overseas next year rather than enroll at Michigan.
“It’s 80-20 in my mind (favor of overseas),” one of our sources close to it said. “One coach who was involved at one point told me 99-1.”
A coach competing with the Wolverines for another recruit called it “85 percent” for overseas.
Of course, Todd’s decision isn’t imminent, he’s said a lot of the right things to the people that matter the most (and who took his commitment) and a final decision is a long way off.
Another somewhat interesting one — five-star wing Jaden Springer. One of our sources in Colorado for USA Basketball last week said Springer, long believed to be down to Tennessee and Memphis with U-M on the outside, loved his trip to Ann Arbor and everything about the program.
“I don’t know if he’d have the guts to tell his dad no, but Jaden wants to go to Michigan,” he said. “His family is pushing Tennessee hard, but he really, really liked the visit.”
That’s one that at least bears watching.
On four-star big man Hunter Dickinson, the seven-footer out of Hyattsville DeMatha — he’s at Duke this weekend and expected to get the full court press.
“Nobody knows where he’s going,” one source on a competing staff said. “Even the people at DeMatha don’t know, and they’re as close to it as anyone.”
They aren’t certain what the Todd pledge to Michigan does for U-M’s chances, either. The kid has played it extremely close to the vest, but it seems clear here Michigan has a very good shot.
Finally, we told you in last week’s ITF what we expected the offense to look like. As for the defense …
Ball screen coverage will be different, and we’d expect them to ‘ice’ pretty much all wing ball screen stuff, meaning the guard on the ball exaggerates his stance to the inside shoulder so much that the ball handler can’t use the screen to the middle, heavily forcing him to the baseline. The hedge guy then becomes the baseline help, something you see a lot in the NBA.
On the court, sophomore shooting guard David DeJulius and big man Colin Castleton have made legit jumps. DeJulius has had some really good practices. They are two of the top six, according to some, along with the big three and freshman Franz Wagner.
“It’s going to be interesting to see how they make that rotation work, particularly since I still don’t see Isaiah Livers as a three,” one close to it said.
Junior Eli Brooks has been solid, too, but one of our insiders likes DeJulius better.
“He creates off the bounce better and they’re not much different from a catch and shoot perspective standpoint,” she said. “I’m not sure about off the ball defensively. That’s the area Brooks might have the advantage, but DeJulius is a year older so may have figured that out.”
Keep in mind, it’s early. And the big question here is, can a guy used to being a lead guard and playing almost exclusively with the ball in his hands play next to Zavier Simpson and can he guard twos?
We’ll see.
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