First Run on the 2021 Season Prediction Model: VERY UGLY
This is the first run on the season prediction model
I ran two scenarios:
Scenario #1: I used Phil Steele's 2021 Pre-Season Power Ratings for All opponents and Michigan (40th)
Scenario #2: I used Phil Steeles 2021 Pre-Season Power Ratings for Opponents and Michigan 2019 end of season power rating (Sagarin 12)
I made adjustments for Home Field Advantage
I have not yet made adjustments for returning starters
I have a problem
There are many little things wrong with the scenarios I ran that we can nitpick all day. Not the point
These are probably BOTH wrong but...
My brain cannot buy into Michigan dropping from Top 15 team in 2019 to 2021 suddenly being a peer to Liberty, Appalachian St and Nevada
Am I in denial? Are we suddenly scratching and clawing to be a middle of the pack Big Ten team, hoping to beat Indiana or Nebraska???
Scenario #1: Very UGLY
Michigan 2021 Power Ratings Vs Opponent 2021 Power Ratings
Win: Western Michigan: Line = Michigan -13.8
Loss: Washington: Line = Michigan 6.1
Win: Northern Illinois: Line = Michigan -24.6
Win: Rutgers: Line = Michigan -10
Loss: @Wisconsin: Line = Michigan 17.8
Loss: @Nebraska: Line = Michigan 3.6
Win: Northwestern: Line = Michigan -5.8
Win: @Michigan State: Line = Michigan -5.9
Loss: Indiana: Line = Michigan 4.2
Loss: @Penn St: Line = Michigan 19.5
Win: @Maryland: Line = Michigan -2.5
Loss: Ohio State: Line = Michigan 11.1
6 Wins – 6 Losses
Scenario #2: FANTASTIC!!
Michigan 2019 Power Ratings Vs Opponent 2021 Power Ratings
Win: Western Michigan: Line = Michigan -28.8
Win: Washington: Line = Michigan -8.9
Win: Northern Illinois: Line = Michigan -39.6
Win: Rutgers: Line = Michigan -25
Loss: @Wisconsin: Line = Michigan 2.8
Win: @Nebraska: Line = Michigan -11.4
Win: Northwestern: Line = Michigan -20.8
Win: @Michigan State: Line = Michigan -20.9
Win: Indiana: Line = Michigan -10.8
Loss: @Penn St: Line = Michigan 4.5
Win: @Maryland: Line = Michigan -17.5
Win: Ohio State: Line = Michigan -3.9
11 Wins – 2 Losses
This is the first run on the season prediction model
I ran two scenarios:
Scenario #1: I used Phil Steele's 2021 Pre-Season Power Ratings for All opponents and Michigan (40th)
Scenario #2: I used Phil Steeles 2021 Pre-Season Power Ratings for Opponents and Michigan 2019 end of season power rating (Sagarin 12)
I made adjustments for Home Field Advantage
I have not yet made adjustments for returning starters
I have a problem
There are many little things wrong with the scenarios I ran that we can nitpick all day. Not the point
These are probably BOTH wrong but...
My brain cannot buy into Michigan dropping from Top 15 team in 2019 to 2021 suddenly being a peer to Liberty, Appalachian St and Nevada
Am I in denial? Are we suddenly scratching and clawing to be a middle of the pack Big Ten team, hoping to beat Indiana or Nebraska???
Scenario #1: Very UGLY
Michigan 2021 Power Ratings Vs Opponent 2021 Power Ratings
Win: Western Michigan: Line = Michigan -13.8
Loss: Washington: Line = Michigan 6.1
Win: Northern Illinois: Line = Michigan -24.6
Win: Rutgers: Line = Michigan -10
Loss: @Wisconsin: Line = Michigan 17.8
Loss: @Nebraska: Line = Michigan 3.6
Win: Northwestern: Line = Michigan -5.8
Win: @Michigan State: Line = Michigan -5.9
Loss: Indiana: Line = Michigan 4.2
Loss: @Penn St: Line = Michigan 19.5
Win: @Maryland: Line = Michigan -2.5
Loss: Ohio State: Line = Michigan 11.1
6 Wins – 6 Losses
Scenario #2: FANTASTIC!!
Michigan 2019 Power Ratings Vs Opponent 2021 Power Ratings
Win: Western Michigan: Line = Michigan -28.8
Win: Washington: Line = Michigan -8.9
Win: Northern Illinois: Line = Michigan -39.6
Win: Rutgers: Line = Michigan -25
Loss: @Wisconsin: Line = Michigan 2.8
Win: @Nebraska: Line = Michigan -11.4
Win: Northwestern: Line = Michigan -20.8
Win: @Michigan State: Line = Michigan -20.9
Win: Indiana: Line = Michigan -10.8
Loss: @Penn St: Line = Michigan 4.5
Win: @Maryland: Line = Michigan -17.5
Win: Ohio State: Line = Michigan -3.9
11 Wins – 2 Losses
