1. The Loss
There is no way around it. Michigan's loss to Michigan State was embarrassing. Some are calling it the worst loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, and the beginning of the end. It very well might be. Michigan was a three touchdown favorite, had an opportunity to continue to make MSU irrelevant on the recruiting trail and build up momentum going into an exciting matchup at Indiana. Instead, Michigan looked flat, unmotivated and just awful at times. As I've said before, I usually can't watch games because I'm at recruiting events. As soon as the Pylon 7v7 tournament was over, I watched the game on my phone in the car. I couldn't believe how terrible Michigan looked against a team coming off a s**t show loss to Rutgers. I know the team was embarrassed. You guys were embarrassed. Hell, I was embarrassed after writing that column about MSU and spending the whole day talking to recruits assuming Michigan would blowout or, at least, beat MSU. What an awful weekend.
2. So What Does It Mean For Recruiting?
When I held my recruiting chat earlier this week, I gave Michigan a 65 percent chance of landing Rayshaun Benny. Some said it was low, and I mentioned that I was being conservative. I fully believed Michigan would destroy Michigan State. But I wanted to make sure it would happen before going higher. Now, here we are. Michigan State is going to pitch the hell out of this win and may ultimately earn Benny's commitment. I haven't heard anything that would lead my to switch my pick right now. But I'm not confident. I'm not even optimistic. Benny has been second guessing his original decision aka looking for a potential reason to not end up at U-M, and the Wolverines gave him one. If Michigan continues on a downward trajectory, you can kiss the chances of landing elite guys like Domani Jackson and Will Johnson good bye. The OSU hype is very real and was turned up a few notches after this weekend.
3. Measured Look
It's just one loss. It was a terrible one. But at the end of the day, the fact remains the same. I've been covering recruiting for a decade, and I know for a fact that recruits don't look at a loss the same way as fans and reporters. Not all recruits are that invested in the programs they are considering and most know that Michigan-Michigan State is a rivalry game. And no recruit makes a full decision based off of one game — obviously, it did weigh a lot with the aforementioned Benny. The bigger issue here is how Michigan will move forward. If this is the beginning of the end, then yes, recruiting will soon become a downhill spiral, especially in a cycle where a number of commits have yet to visit. I'll go more into what this loss and a poor season could do for Michigan recruiting this clycle and beyond in tomorrow's Into The Blue. But it's not time to panic. Michigan still has plenty of time. It's a long season.
4. Michigan Is Texas
But even if Michigan does win the rest of its games and fall to Ohio State at the end, will it really matter? It's going to be a rinse, recycle, repeat situation. I've already gone through this on my previous beat. Let's take a look at Texas. In Tom Herman's first season with the Longhorns, Texas was embarrassed against Maryland in the season opener, got people excited with a close double OT loss to No. 4 USC, beat a ranked West Virginia team and won a bowl game. In Year 2, Texas once again lost to Maryland (another embarrassment) but then found a way to beat Oklahoma, three other ranked teams and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Sandwiched in-between that was a loss to an unranked Oklahoma State team. In Year 3, Texas lost five games but beat No. 11 Utah in a bowl game. This year, Herman was on the cusp of being fired but then beat No. 6 Oklahoma State this weekend. Through all of that, Texas finished with Top 10 recruiting classes but never won a Big 12 title and lost to OU every season (the Sooners beat them in the Year 2 rematch).
5. Michigan Is Texas Pt. 2
Jim Harbaugh has a better record at Michigan than Herman has at Texas, but the narratives are pretty similar. Michigan has lost some games it wasn't supposed to (Iowa in 2016, Michigan State in 2017, Michigan State in 2020), lost in bowl games and posted some quality wins against ranked opponents. But the Wolverines have not won a Big Title and have been owned by rival Ohio State. Beating Oklahoma and winning the Big 12 title (at least sometimes) is the expectation at Texas. The same goes for Michigan with Ohio State and the Big Ten. These are two proud blue blood programs. Texas thought it found its guy in Herman, who was a GA at Texas. Michigan thought it found its guy in Harbaugh, who was a quarterback at U-M. Now, both fan bases are calling for their heads. Is it right? I'm not sure. But neither fanbase is going to accept what the current situation is at either school.
6. Michigan Is Texas Pt. 3
From a recruiting standpoint, the two programs are pretty similar. Despite no conference titles and being second best in the conference on a yearly basis, both Michigan and Texas put together Top 10-15 classes every single cycle. While they can't get over the hump, they do enough on the field and carry the name weight to pull in kids both regionally and nationally. Covering recruiting for both teams is also a pain. The waves are so terrible to ride. With Texas, recruiting varies at different points in the year. The offseason is full of optimism and big commits. The season gives hope and then dreams are crushed. The end result is some decommits but ultimately a great class. This week, I got my first real taste of Michigan since this is my fist full cycle on the beat. Everyone was sky high in regards to recruiting this offseason. With the loss to MSU, fans could care less about recruiting and are as pessimistic as can be. And it will only get worse if Michigan drops more games. You could see a few deccomits as well but ultimately, like Texas, Michigan should maintain a high level recruiting class.
7. Enthusiasm Unknown
If you don't know, I'm a San Francisco 49ers fan. I was so excited for today's rivalry game against the Seahawks. Now, I'm typing this during a blowout. I miss Harbaugh... or the Harbaugh I used to root for. The years Harbaugh had the 49ers competing for NFC championships were so fun. I even flew out to San Francisco to catch a game. I loved every second of the Harbaugh era in San Francisco (minus the last year). His energy, passion and quirkiness made the team great. I remember interning for the Cowboys and requesting to work the 49ers post-game, so I could meet Harbaugh. He brought that same enthusiasm to Michigan. I covered his satellite camps in Texas, saw him climbing trees and doing the weird sleepovers. It was fun to watch from afar. That guy is gone, and he's never coming back, and it makes me so sad. As I've mentioned before, Harbaugh is taking a Stanford-style to recruiting. It's yielding results on the trail and building a culture, but I'd rather have the fun weirdo instead of Stanford Harbaugh.
8. The Cali Kids
Michigan wide receiver commits Cristian Dixon and Xavier Worthy got their first looks at Michigan this weekend. I plan to catchup with both Worthy and Dixon as well as their mothers soon. It's pretty awesome that they made the trip all the way to Ann Arbor on their own dime to get an up close look at the campus and city, especially since they plan to be back in a couple of weeks with most of the other commits. It's even more awesome that Dixon and Worthy went out to watch Donovan Edwards and show him love. This class has a really close bond, and they believe in the culture that Harbaugh has pitched to them throughout the cycle. It's clear that they want to get Michigan over that hump. Obviously, closing with Edwards would add a big piece to the puzzle.
9. The Cutouts
Michigan Director of Recruiting Matty Dudek gets a lot of flack, but he has been a shining star on this staff throughout the pandemic. Getting the cardboard cutouts of the 2021 commits in the stands was awesome. And the class absolutely loved it.
10. Halloween
I'm not a big Halloween guy, but it's my wife's favorite holiday. I was originally going to make the trip out to Oak Park vs. Gross Pointe South, but they only allowed Fox Sports Detroit to cover the game. I thought about going to West Bloomfield, but I wanted to be closer to home on Halloween weekend to spend more time with my wife. Obviously, I'm gone a lot, and the holiday means a lot to her, so I went out to Indy to cover 2022 target Joe Strickland, drove back to Chicago then woke up at 6 a.m. and covered the Pylon tournament about an hour away from my house. After the tournament, my wife and I went to a haunted house themed after The Shining and got some pizza in downtown Chicago. It wasn't our usual Halloween craziness due to COVID, but it was still fun. I was Kylo, she was Rey and the cat was Chewbacca. Also, Michigan commit Tyler McLaurin was in the Halloween spirit. He dressed up as a Chicago Hot Dog.
There is no way around it. Michigan's loss to Michigan State was embarrassing. Some are calling it the worst loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, and the beginning of the end. It very well might be. Michigan was a three touchdown favorite, had an opportunity to continue to make MSU irrelevant on the recruiting trail and build up momentum going into an exciting matchup at Indiana. Instead, Michigan looked flat, unmotivated and just awful at times. As I've said before, I usually can't watch games because I'm at recruiting events. As soon as the Pylon 7v7 tournament was over, I watched the game on my phone in the car. I couldn't believe how terrible Michigan looked against a team coming off a s**t show loss to Rutgers. I know the team was embarrassed. You guys were embarrassed. Hell, I was embarrassed after writing that column about MSU and spending the whole day talking to recruits assuming Michigan would blowout or, at least, beat MSU. What an awful weekend.
2. So What Does It Mean For Recruiting?
When I held my recruiting chat earlier this week, I gave Michigan a 65 percent chance of landing Rayshaun Benny. Some said it was low, and I mentioned that I was being conservative. I fully believed Michigan would destroy Michigan State. But I wanted to make sure it would happen before going higher. Now, here we are. Michigan State is going to pitch the hell out of this win and may ultimately earn Benny's commitment. I haven't heard anything that would lead my to switch my pick right now. But I'm not confident. I'm not even optimistic. Benny has been second guessing his original decision aka looking for a potential reason to not end up at U-M, and the Wolverines gave him one. If Michigan continues on a downward trajectory, you can kiss the chances of landing elite guys like Domani Jackson and Will Johnson good bye. The OSU hype is very real and was turned up a few notches after this weekend.
3. Measured Look
It's just one loss. It was a terrible one. But at the end of the day, the fact remains the same. I've been covering recruiting for a decade, and I know for a fact that recruits don't look at a loss the same way as fans and reporters. Not all recruits are that invested in the programs they are considering and most know that Michigan-Michigan State is a rivalry game. And no recruit makes a full decision based off of one game — obviously, it did weigh a lot with the aforementioned Benny. The bigger issue here is how Michigan will move forward. If this is the beginning of the end, then yes, recruiting will soon become a downhill spiral, especially in a cycle where a number of commits have yet to visit. I'll go more into what this loss and a poor season could do for Michigan recruiting this clycle and beyond in tomorrow's Into The Blue. But it's not time to panic. Michigan still has plenty of time. It's a long season.
4. Michigan Is Texas
But even if Michigan does win the rest of its games and fall to Ohio State at the end, will it really matter? It's going to be a rinse, recycle, repeat situation. I've already gone through this on my previous beat. Let's take a look at Texas. In Tom Herman's first season with the Longhorns, Texas was embarrassed against Maryland in the season opener, got people excited with a close double OT loss to No. 4 USC, beat a ranked West Virginia team and won a bowl game. In Year 2, Texas once again lost to Maryland (another embarrassment) but then found a way to beat Oklahoma, three other ranked teams and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Sandwiched in-between that was a loss to an unranked Oklahoma State team. In Year 3, Texas lost five games but beat No. 11 Utah in a bowl game. This year, Herman was on the cusp of being fired but then beat No. 6 Oklahoma State this weekend. Through all of that, Texas finished with Top 10 recruiting classes but never won a Big 12 title and lost to OU every season (the Sooners beat them in the Year 2 rematch).
5. Michigan Is Texas Pt. 2
Jim Harbaugh has a better record at Michigan than Herman has at Texas, but the narratives are pretty similar. Michigan has lost some games it wasn't supposed to (Iowa in 2016, Michigan State in 2017, Michigan State in 2020), lost in bowl games and posted some quality wins against ranked opponents. But the Wolverines have not won a Big Title and have been owned by rival Ohio State. Beating Oklahoma and winning the Big 12 title (at least sometimes) is the expectation at Texas. The same goes for Michigan with Ohio State and the Big Ten. These are two proud blue blood programs. Texas thought it found its guy in Herman, who was a GA at Texas. Michigan thought it found its guy in Harbaugh, who was a quarterback at U-M. Now, both fan bases are calling for their heads. Is it right? I'm not sure. But neither fanbase is going to accept what the current situation is at either school.
6. Michigan Is Texas Pt. 3
From a recruiting standpoint, the two programs are pretty similar. Despite no conference titles and being second best in the conference on a yearly basis, both Michigan and Texas put together Top 10-15 classes every single cycle. While they can't get over the hump, they do enough on the field and carry the name weight to pull in kids both regionally and nationally. Covering recruiting for both teams is also a pain. The waves are so terrible to ride. With Texas, recruiting varies at different points in the year. The offseason is full of optimism and big commits. The season gives hope and then dreams are crushed. The end result is some decommits but ultimately a great class. This week, I got my first real taste of Michigan since this is my fist full cycle on the beat. Everyone was sky high in regards to recruiting this offseason. With the loss to MSU, fans could care less about recruiting and are as pessimistic as can be. And it will only get worse if Michigan drops more games. You could see a few deccomits as well but ultimately, like Texas, Michigan should maintain a high level recruiting class.
7. Enthusiasm Unknown
If you don't know, I'm a San Francisco 49ers fan. I was so excited for today's rivalry game against the Seahawks. Now, I'm typing this during a blowout. I miss Harbaugh... or the Harbaugh I used to root for. The years Harbaugh had the 49ers competing for NFC championships were so fun. I even flew out to San Francisco to catch a game. I loved every second of the Harbaugh era in San Francisco (minus the last year). His energy, passion and quirkiness made the team great. I remember interning for the Cowboys and requesting to work the 49ers post-game, so I could meet Harbaugh. He brought that same enthusiasm to Michigan. I covered his satellite camps in Texas, saw him climbing trees and doing the weird sleepovers. It was fun to watch from afar. That guy is gone, and he's never coming back, and it makes me so sad. As I've mentioned before, Harbaugh is taking a Stanford-style to recruiting. It's yielding results on the trail and building a culture, but I'd rather have the fun weirdo instead of Stanford Harbaugh.
8. The Cali Kids
Michigan wide receiver commits Cristian Dixon and Xavier Worthy got their first looks at Michigan this weekend. I plan to catchup with both Worthy and Dixon as well as their mothers soon. It's pretty awesome that they made the trip all the way to Ann Arbor on their own dime to get an up close look at the campus and city, especially since they plan to be back in a couple of weeks with most of the other commits. It's even more awesome that Dixon and Worthy went out to watch Donovan Edwards and show him love. This class has a really close bond, and they believe in the culture that Harbaugh has pitched to them throughout the cycle. It's clear that they want to get Michigan over that hump. Obviously, closing with Edwards would add a big piece to the puzzle.
9. The Cutouts
Michigan Director of Recruiting Matty Dudek gets a lot of flack, but he has been a shining star on this staff throughout the pandemic. Getting the cardboard cutouts of the 2021 commits in the stands was awesome. And the class absolutely loved it.
10. Halloween
I'm not a big Halloween guy, but it's my wife's favorite holiday. I was originally going to make the trip out to Oak Park vs. Gross Pointe South, but they only allowed Fox Sports Detroit to cover the game. I thought about going to West Bloomfield, but I wanted to be closer to home on Halloween weekend to spend more time with my wife. Obviously, I'm gone a lot, and the holiday means a lot to her, so I went out to Indy to cover 2022 target Joe Strickland, drove back to Chicago then woke up at 6 a.m. and covered the Pylon tournament about an hour away from my house. After the tournament, my wife and I went to a haunted house themed after The Shining and got some pizza in downtown Chicago. It wasn't our usual Halloween craziness due to COVID, but it was still fun. I was Kylo, she was Rey and the cat was Chewbacca. Also, Michigan commit Tyler McLaurin was in the Halloween spirit. He dressed up as a Chicago Hot Dog.
