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Thoughts on Michigan's Football Season in 2016?

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nddecker1

Michigan Man
Mar 6, 2011
22,069
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Irish fan here

I was over here prior to the 2015 season, to see what Michigan fans were looking for and share with them how I saw things.
Now I'm back to do the same thing for 2016...

A few bad eggs ended up ruining the discussion last time, so let's try to leave religious slurs and personal insults out of it this time, even if you have a differing view




I'm interested to hear:
1.) How Michigan fans see the 2016 season going (in terms of wins/losses)
2.) What the strengths and weaknesses of the team will be
3.) How Michigan will stack up to opponents, the Big10, and the top teams nationwide


I'll let Michigan fans chime in first (since this is your board) before sharing my thoughts on the topics as well



Fire away....
 
Thanks for asking...

1. It depends mostly on qb play. Mediocre qb...no Ruddock....8 wins. Good qb play...9 wins +

Harbaugh will get at least 8 wins with this team because of a solid defense and good OL play. Enough talent at the rb position to grind out wins. I think UM becomes a team that reflects their HC...a guy who doesn't tolerate anything other than winning a program that starts to build confidence.


2. Strengths. Solid defense and a more than competent OL. Not a lot of strengths but Harbaugh and staff will shore up some gaps and most importantly will instill a new 'tude' at UM.

3. Big Ten isn't that great. I think UM beats who they are expected to beat with an upset here or there. It all comes down to qb play on whether UM goes over 8 wins.


Here is one variable that doesn't get a lot of play. I think the competition at rb will push these guys. These guys aren't frosh...they have been in the system for 2-3 years depending on the guy and will run behind a mature OL. If this program gets a competent qb who can throw a screen pass and hit the TE's in stride along with competent underneath solid/wr play...this team should be o.k.

This isn't the SEC.



Reality Man



P.S. Let me put in another way...if this team last year was coached by Harbaugh...they win 8 games last year because UM would have never been in the position of having Gardner at qb. Harbaugh recognizes problems and resolves them by getting someone else to do the job. It's that simple.
 
We appear to have a time traveler visiting here

So do the Cubs win the World Series in 2015? Was BTTF2 actually correct?!?!?

This post was edited on 3/6 7:45 PM by michnittlion
 
Re: We appear to have a time traveler visiting here

What were his predictions on ND's season for last year?? And I would be very curious to see what they are for this year.
 
Re: Can you tell us where BoneDoc went ?

Never heard from him after the middle of your season and loss to Northwestern. Weird ...
 
AGP. For some reason he decided everything that he didn't agree

with was 100% wrong. Magically, all his thoughts were the correct ones.
 
Reality Man is spot on.

1) I anticipate around 8-9 wins or more

2) defense and OL will become the overall strength. QB will likely be a weakness, but we could end up with a Henne/Hart situation with Malzone/Isaacs or another combo of the current QB/RB roster

3) who knows. I don't think anyone really believed OSU wouId have been a contender last season and almost no one predicted them to beat Bama AND Oregon...but they did...the same season they had an embarrassing loss to VT. We'll just have to see how the season plays out, but I think we have the roster and the coaching staff to potentially compete with anyone. With that said, I truly expect that we'll be a year or two away from a run at the playoffs.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Ha! I hear that Chip Kelly will be out of Philly this year Kelly to

Kelly would be an interesting Irish move.
 
Alright, let's get the fight out of the way....

1.) No, Aoichi (or whatever his name was) is the bad egg....religious slurs....really??

2.) Yes, what I was saying about Michigan was correct and what you all said was wrong. Plain and simple
I pointed out how comically pathetic your offense was going to be
I pointed out how "slight above average" your defense was going to be
I pointed out how your HC was a joke
I pointed out how you were going to get MURDERED BY ALL 3 OF YOUR RIVALS

3.) I predicted 8-9 wins for ND last year, due to injuries, suspensions, NFL EE's, and an overall incredibly thin/young team
The team actually greatly surpassed my expectations in terms of play laster year
The injuries that happened during the season were BEYOND IMAGINING which lead to a historic level collapse

4.) This isn't a thread to discuss ND, if you really want to know what I think of ND....just ask


Alright, not back to your regularly scheduled programing
 
I think you all have the right idea, you just see a MUCH rosier version of it than I do.

The reality that I see for Michigan

1.) QB is a complete and total cluster fvck. No other way about it. You're not going to get "competent QB play" from anyone currently on your roster. Your QB was a complete joke last year, literally comical...and none of these guys could beat him out
In fact, when he was replaced with Morris...Morris was actually WORSE

2.) The reports on "Speight is pretty good" is just the next in a very long line of "Young guy who hasn't shown he sucks yet is surprising everyong" reports. If he was competent, he would have played last year
He could continue to improve and become competent eventually.......but he's not going from worse than Gardner/Morris to competent in 1 off-season

3.) If you have to start a frosh at QB, you're in deep sh*t, no other way to put it. In a pro-style offense, without a true 5* stud, you'll miss a bowl game...just that simple



I'll go more into this, but unless Michigan gets someone from another roster to play QB for them, the QB position will certainly hobble the team for the entire season
 
Alright, more complete analysis:

1.) QB is by FAR the biggest problem on the team, as described above, there is just nothing there on the Michigan roster right now...to the point that this position can, and probably will, sink the season

2.) The issues at QB are compounded by lack of playmakers on offense. At this point, there is just no one at all on Michigan's offense that concerns a defense. Funchess may have been soft and played with half-assed effort most of the time....but he was at least scary to defenses with what he could do
The Michigan passing game doesn't have a QB to make it's WR/TE's look better and it doesn't have a threat at WR/TE to bail out it's QB.....that's a vicious cycle

The combination of the above is going to cause team to stack their defense near the LOS, play a ton of tight coverage, and start jumping all the underneath throws....they'll force Michigan to beat them deep

Just for a little reference, Michigan was TIED FOR LAST in passing plays of 25+ yards in 2014....and that was with Gardner and Funchess

The passing game, especially the 10+ yard passing game, is going to be a major problem for Michigan in 2015
 
Alright, on to this idea that the OL and run game are suddenly going to become strengths for Michigan's offense....

Michigan's OL and run game did improve from 2013 to 2014, and generally improved throughout the 2014 season (really more of "improved from the beginning of Big10 play to the end of it"

WIth the entire OL returning, all the RB's returning, and bringing in coaches who focus in this area (Harbaugh/Drevno) and are known for developing it......it's smart to believe that this unit will keep on improving

With all of that said, you need to look at where the Michigan OL and run game are really starting from:
1.) Michigan was in the bottom half of the country in rushing yardage in 2014
2.) Michigan was BARLEY in the Top50 for yards per carry in 2014


But what's really more important is how Michigan was (or wasn't) able to run the ball against competent competition (not Appy State or Miami (OH) )

Against Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State (Michigan's "Big Games") Michigan's rushing averages were:
90 yards rushing
2.8 yards per carry
1 TD
Those are some pretty dismall and telling numbers, and when you throw in the other "top teams" from Michigan's schedule (Utah, Minnesota, Penn State) the numbers actually get worse

The real key for any run game is "How do you run the ball when you need to?" and in 2014 Michigan just couldn't do that at all
How much this area improves will obviously be key for Michigan in 2015






I see this as being the "strength" of the offense for Michigan in 2015, but I don't see it becoming a relative strength. Michigan is going to face a ton of stacked boxes, and isn't going to magically progress from "2.8 yards per carry against rivals" to a team that can rely on the power fun game in a single off-season....just not realistic


Have to go now, I'll be back with more on the overall look of the offense, the defense, and the season as a whole later
 
#4 - You're right. I don't care about ND and won't ask. I did enjoy your loss to Northwestern however.

Did you think we'd pull Harbaugh ? I did ... You ???

I will add that Speight was a Freshman last year and just possibly the staff thought they'd either sink or swim with a 5th year Senior ( Gardner ) and redshirt the kid. I'm quite certain neither you or I know squat about the development of our QB's so please go to another board and take your condensing attitude with you.

This post was edited on 3/7 12:05 PM by Draidan14
 
Nah, you were all up on Everett Golson's jock, saying he was going to be amazing. He started out that way, and then by the end of the year he got benched in favor of Malik Zaire.

I said we'd go as far as our offensive line took us, which clearly was not far. I think we can all agree Hoke was in over his head.
 
AGP-same as last year. Decides his worthless opinion is 100%

correct although he stupidly claims to want to hear what people think. Complete clown.
 
Response to Nddecker1...

I think (only my opinion)...you are really understating the impact of this staff/Harbaugh. Here is why.

Harbaugh adapts but more importantly he knows how to implement physical football. Just listen to some of the reports. Practices are much more physical and they review mistakes in the film room so they get more plays/hitting in during practices.

Note the number of qb's he is trying to get into the system. He recognizes qb play is critical to success and knows how to run a certain type of offense. Note how to run an effective power running game he gets the need for the FB, TE's, etc.

Throw in Ty Isaac (USC) and UM has the necessary running backs. It has a relatively mature OL. I am not saying this is going to be Alabama but it should be more than competent. UM has the players to run a Harbaugh type offense. Maybe not the extent of high end success but combined with a solid defense..it should be o.k...especially if Ruddock transfers.

Now..you are absolutely correct. Where is UM going to get a competent qb...a redshirt frosh? Seems risky. Morris was way overrated coming out of high school. It will be a problem but I think Harbaugh can get a qb to throw accurate underneath passes most of the time.

The big 'flaw' in your argument and I hate to do this....Gardner was a bad as they come. Maybe most of that was coaching but UM should get another 1-2 wins just by Gardner graduating.



Reality Man
 
Again, Reality Man nailed it. NDdekker wouId have us all believe that there is no hope for UM football despite the fact that we hauled in the top football coach in America. Also, as RM pointed out, dekker's arguments are entirely based on 2014 season which was not coached by Harbaugh or any of his other current staff. Assuming that our OL will not be a "relative strength," QB as "dismal," and RBs unable to get yards all because of last year is just unthinkably ignorant.


Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Think about what you just said...

"Saying that our qb play will be terrible, based only on everything they've ever done on the field, is unthinkably ignorant"
"What players accomplish on the field isn't really inductive of their next year, just HARBAUGH!!"

How did Harbaugh's first year at Stanford go? Did they suddenly become amazing, because HARBAUGH??!!!

I didn't say that Michigan will never be good, and I haven't event gotten to defense or predictions yet (and I will), but...
Qb - total mess. No experience, no proven talent, tons of questions
Rb - potential exists, but nothing proven at all. Could turn out good or very bad
Wr - very weak. No playmakers, no go-to player, no one that scares a defense
Te - thin. Butt has showed potential but hasn't returned to that after injury and no one proven
Ol - major question marks. Physical talent and experience exists, but absolutely no production. Nothing but a history of failure here

What part of that inspires confidence in any way?

Thinking this group should be expected to be anything other than bad is homer-tastic
 
Re: Response to Nddecker1...

Reality man,

HARBAUGH is going to work as hard as he can to fix qb and get the team to play hard, but if you look at Stanford, it's obvious that he's not able to do that instantaneously (if he's able to do it at Michigan at all)

Michigan fans seem to think they're going to suddenly have the physical, powerful, Stanford year 3 offense...and they're simply not going to

And you're flat out wrong in Gardner
He's not a great qb, and Michigan's ol ended up breaking him mentally, but he was obviously Michigan's best qb last year. When Morris went in...wow. And both of them kept speight on the bench

I know Michigan fans want to picture want to picture that HARBAUGH will magically fix the ol and run game, create some competent qb, and make it so that the offense doesn't need playmakers....and he might some day....but walking in, that's not happening
 
Nobody is expecting miracles from Harbaugh, but most UM fans

believe that part of UM's problem over the past few seasons can be attributed to poor coaching. With competent coaching, UM should be better by default.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Re: Response to Nddecker1...

Wow....so just ignore the quick turn around JH did with SF? Which, came AFTER he coached Stanford. But yeah, your just as smart as any analysts on ESPN, so proceed. In fact, go a head and type out a 20 page article and submit it to that knucklehead in Oakland.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Originally posted by nddecker1:

Irish fan here

I was over here prior to the 2015 season, to see what Michigan fans were looking for and share with them how I saw things.
Now I'm back to do the same thing for 2016...

A few bad eggs ended up ruining the discussion last time, so let's try to leave religious slurs and personal insults out of it this time, even if you have a differing view




I'm interested to hear:
1.) How Michigan fans see the 2016 season going (in terms of wins/losses)
2.) What the strengths and weaknesses of the team will be
3.) How Michigan will stack up to opponents, the Big10, and the top teams nationwide


I'll let Michigan fans chime in first (since this is your board) before sharing my thoughts on the topics as well



Fire away....
Click to expand...

From your original post it seems to imply that your asking us what we think will happen. So, with that, opinions will vary.
What's the point in asking, if when someone tells you how they think the season will go, you try to tell them they're all wrong by saying what you "think"?
See how that goes?
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
No, it isn't. Take a look at the rosters JH inherited at Stanford and at Michigan and compare the two. Look at the relative talent level between those two rosters. Fact is, TERRIBLE coaching ruined a lot of the talent on the current Michigan roster. Arguing anything different is just a ND fan coming to reality that Michigan will have a better season than the domers this year and ND still has a total train wreck of a coach.

This post was edited on 3/8 12:49 PM by PharmD Blue
 
Nddecker1, please don't bring a dissenting opinion on this open message board regardless of how reasonable or well though out. If you can't post something positive about Michigan, or negative about OSU, Notre Dame, MSU, or PSU, you are not we one here on BWI- Michigan Edition.

And before I get the irate Wolverine fans insulting me, I think under JH the Wolverines will never lose again.... Ever. Go Bloo !!
 
Finally you talk some sense. Good to see you're catching on. Now just

For giggles. If this douche was running his mouth let's say on the Ohio board ... What would the reaction be ???

Probably nothing but sunshine and agreement from Ohio fan. Right ?
 
Sorry, michigan fans. Just giving you the reality. Just wanted to see how your expectations ate
stacked up

The fact of the matter is that your own insiders are hearing from your own coaches (like HARBAUGH) that there is an absolute dearth of talent and options at qb and that they need to scramble to try to just get to "well below average" here
And before you start freaking out and saying this isn't true...read your own homeboard and you'll see it's the case

Additionally, your "savior" at rb Isaac, has only ever played seriously in a couple games and your own current o-coordinator put him behind another frosh at USC, Justin Davis. And while Davis is a good player, he's not even close to what you're hyping Isaac as...and Isaac was his backup. After that, your best rb from last year tore his acl, your second best is a hybrid full back, and your "potential star" in green can't produce against any talented teams and is coming off an injury

At wr you have absolutely nothing. Not one single player that a defense is concerned about or needs to scheme towards. I don't know how Michigan's could even debate this point. You just have nothing here

At te, you have one solid player in butt, but even he's still working on coming back from a major injury and isn't anything special. Behind him, you don't have anything to speak of

Lastly you have an ol, that's never produced anything at all. In fact, this unit has been the weakest link on a very bad team for a long time. It's obvious here that several of the big recruits you have here are complete busts (Kalis) and others just haven't been developed at all and are still massive projects (Tuley-Tillman). This unit should continue to improve with experience and hopefully better coaching, but it's going to be some sort of magic transformation. This will be especially limited by the lack of natural tackles and the lack of size at center

How do Michigan fans look at these realities and actually think their offense will improve in 2015?

I fully expect Michigan's 2015 offense to be one of the least productive in the country
At the same time, I expect HARBAUGH and the coaches to focus on not turning the ball over as much, hoping to win some games in slow, low scoring fashion
 
Turnovers

Last year's offense was 98th in the country in turnovers; 121st in turnover margin. Basically, near the bottom of all Division I teams. There were a couple of "pick 6's" in there as well. That is something that can be cleaned up quickly with some decent coaching, and it can make a big difference in the Ws and Ls.
 
as for the poster trying to compare Michigan to San Francisco...

1.) it's the nfl, not college. The overall talent on nfl teams is much more similar (by design) and it's much easier to change the roster (cutting players, free agency, etc). Quick changes are MUCH easier and much more common in the nfl

2.) HARBAUGH had a #1 overall draft pick at qb in San Fran. He may not have been an all pro, but he was talented and experienced. He was good enough that other good teams and coaches we're willing to pay/trade to get him... That's not even close to the case at Michigan

If HARBAUGH is around for 4+years, these realities will likely change...but for 2015, this is the reality you'll have to live with
 
Re: Turnovers

You can definitely reduce turnovers to a certain extent, but the reality is that with a young qb turnovers typically increase

Now given the situation last year nd the scheme likely to be used in 2015, I don't expect them to increase overall...but that will make it much tougher to reduce them significantly, as you hope
 
Originally posted by nddecker1:
You can definitely reduce turnovers to a certain extent, but the reality is that with a young qb turnovers typically increase

Now given the situation last year nd the scheme likely to be used in 2015, I don't expect them to increase overall...but that will make it much tougher to reduce them significantly, as you hope
Click to expand...
If you have all the right answers why do you even want to discuss anything? Btw I could really use this weeks winning lotto numbers when you get a chance.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
Okay, now you're just being intentionally stupid. Or maybe not.


Based on some of your other posts, this may be your base level of intelligence. I certainly hope not.
Ok, your cue to throw out a 2nd grade insult and accuse others of being "immature". Good times.
 
Originally posted by amayznblue:
Again, Reality Man nailed it. NDdekker wouId have us all believe that there is no hope for UM football despite the fact that we hauled in the top football coach in America[/B].


Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...

rolleye0011.r191677.gif
 
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