I'm looking at this more based on his ranking rather than his individual skill set. What I mean is he's the #8 player in his class per Rivals (and if you don't like Rivals, he's #8 in the composite rankings - so everyone agrees he's basically a top 10 player). Based on that I think we can expect him to be a very impactful player based on how the Top 10 (or so) players in recent classes have faired:
2018
1. RJ Barrett - stud
2. Nassir Little - 9.8 ppg, 48% fg
3. Cam Reddish - really good
4. Bol Bol - only played 9 games but averaged 21 ppg.
5. Zion Williamson - stud
6. Romeo Langford - very good player
7. Simisola Shittu - 10.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg in 1 yr. Undrafted.
8. Quentin Grimes - transferred to Houston from Kansas after 1st year. Very good. Probably going pro this year.
9. Charles Bassey - 1st team all conference and CUSA FPOY his frosh yr. Declared for draft 2 weeks ago.
10. Anfernee Simons - never played in college, straight to the draft and went 24th overall.
2019
1. James Wiseman - stud
2. Isaiah Stewart - 1st team All Pac 12
3. Anthony Edwards - stud
4. Cole Anthony - really good on a bad UNC team
5. Veron Carey - really good
6. RJ Hampton - played in New Zealand instead of college
7. Jaden McDaniels - 13 ppg, 5.8 rpg
8. Scottie Lewis - SEC All-Freshman team
9. Matthew Hurt - 9.7 ppg FR year, 1st team All-ACC 2nd yr
10. Tyrese Maxey - SEC 2nd Team; SEC All-Freshman team
11. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - Big East Frosh of Yr
12. Nico Mannion - Pac 12 2nd team; PAC 12 All-Freshman team
2020
1. Cade Cunningham - stud
2. Jalen Green - NBA G league
3. Jonathan Kuminga - NBA G league
4. Evan Mobley - stud
5. BJ Boston - 11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg
6. Ziaire Williams - 10.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37% from field - kind of underwhelming
7. Scotty Barnes - 10.3 ppg, 4.1 apg, 50% fg% in 25 minutes per game
8. Terrence Clarke - 9.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg
9. Jalen Johnson - 11.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 52% fg before opting out
10. Greg Brown - started all but 2 games - 9.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg; 1st team all freshen team Big12
11. Jalen Suggs - stud
12. Josh Christopher - no comment
If you go back and examine previous years you see the same trend and the players in his range should get you excited based on how they performed:
1) The top 5 (or so players) are usually your can't-miss studs. The services are pretty accurate on those guys, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the top guys will be really good.
2) The next 5-10 players are almost always at least very good college players, and often they're flat out studs. Most are gone after 1 year, but those that stay more than 1 year are usually all-conference their second year.
3) Rarely is a top 10 player a bust. It happens, but not very often.
Bottom line: if you're getting a top 10 recruit in basketball, that player is going to have an impactful career even if it is short-lived.
2018
1. RJ Barrett - stud
2. Nassir Little - 9.8 ppg, 48% fg
3. Cam Reddish - really good
4. Bol Bol - only played 9 games but averaged 21 ppg.
5. Zion Williamson - stud
6. Romeo Langford - very good player
7. Simisola Shittu - 10.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg in 1 yr. Undrafted.
8. Quentin Grimes - transferred to Houston from Kansas after 1st year. Very good. Probably going pro this year.
9. Charles Bassey - 1st team all conference and CUSA FPOY his frosh yr. Declared for draft 2 weeks ago.
10. Anfernee Simons - never played in college, straight to the draft and went 24th overall.
2019
1. James Wiseman - stud
2. Isaiah Stewart - 1st team All Pac 12
3. Anthony Edwards - stud
4. Cole Anthony - really good on a bad UNC team
5. Veron Carey - really good
6. RJ Hampton - played in New Zealand instead of college
7. Jaden McDaniels - 13 ppg, 5.8 rpg
8. Scottie Lewis - SEC All-Freshman team
9. Matthew Hurt - 9.7 ppg FR year, 1st team All-ACC 2nd yr
10. Tyrese Maxey - SEC 2nd Team; SEC All-Freshman team
11. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - Big East Frosh of Yr
12. Nico Mannion - Pac 12 2nd team; PAC 12 All-Freshman team
2020
1. Cade Cunningham - stud
2. Jalen Green - NBA G league
3. Jonathan Kuminga - NBA G league
4. Evan Mobley - stud
5. BJ Boston - 11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg
6. Ziaire Williams - 10.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37% from field - kind of underwhelming
7. Scotty Barnes - 10.3 ppg, 4.1 apg, 50% fg% in 25 minutes per game
8. Terrence Clarke - 9.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg
9. Jalen Johnson - 11.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 52% fg before opting out
10. Greg Brown - started all but 2 games - 9.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg; 1st team all freshen team Big12
11. Jalen Suggs - stud
12. Josh Christopher - no comment
If you go back and examine previous years you see the same trend and the players in his range should get you excited based on how they performed:
1) The top 5 (or so players) are usually your can't-miss studs. The services are pretty accurate on those guys, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the top guys will be really good.
2) The next 5-10 players are almost always at least very good college players, and often they're flat out studs. Most are gone after 1 year, but those that stay more than 1 year are usually all-conference their second year.
3) Rarely is a top 10 player a bust. It happens, but not very often.
Bottom line: if you're getting a top 10 recruit in basketball, that player is going to have an impactful career even if it is short-lived.
