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What Are The Chances?

Blue Kahuna

All-American
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
6,944
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Central Florida
I’ve been watching the scores and developments of this first 12-team college football playoff. There’s still two weeks to go, but it appears that the Big Ten and SEC will be providing 3/4 of the teams in this year’s playoff.

If you follow how much of the total CFP revenue the various conferences will be paid, it’s clear that while the B1G and SEC are getting much larger shares than the other conferences, they’re still permitting between 40-50% of the CFP profits to “leak” to conferences who will never place more than one team in the playoff field and hundreds of teams who will never be selected for the playoff field.

Why are the two dominant conferences creating the value, but permitting other teams to share in the profits without having to make an investment? There are probably less than a dozen and a half teams investing in their programs at a level which will result in them being selected as CFP participants. Why are the B1G+SEC letting so many schools share the profits without investing? Is there an alternative?

Yes, I think there is. If the B1G and SEC merged and then cherry-picked the best 30 teams from other conferences to form a 64-team conference or “Division I”, the 64-teams could…
  • Negotiate for their own “premier league” playoffs and national championship.
  • Organize both regular season play and the playoffs on a regionalized basis—16 teams in Midwest, East/Southeast, Southwest and West Coast subdivisions.
  • Negotiate for their own TV rights deal.
  • Resign from the NCAA and their set their own rules, so long as they don’t violate laws like the federal anti-trust laws. (Maybe start by re-establishing the one year wait for transfers.)
Hundreds of other schools would be very unhappy with that development. Conferences would have to re-organize or fail altogether. But if they don’t invest in the product, why should they be permitted to significantly share in the CFP profits?

The resulting “Division II” could organize as they wish, have their own playoffs and national championship, and negotiate their own TV rights contract.

You may think this sounds radical, but it would be effective and fairer than the current system.
 
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