At this point the primary goal should be to get a NCAA bid after last night's rough loss. Get healthy, get in and see what happens from there. Would I take a play in berth at this time? No, but give me a 10 seed with a healthy roster and see how the ball rolls.
If the bracket were released today, then Michigan would be a 9 seed. At this time yesterday they were about a 6 looking to slide up to the 5 line with a win over a respectable Penn State team. A win over Illinois on Saturday and then you slide back up to a high 8 seed (meaning close to a 7), but a loss would place them at the cut line for the NCAA. That is how things look in the interim. Wins/losses swing a good 3-4 seeds right now. Wins/losses in early March swing 2 seeds.
A 9-11 conference record would mean they held serve at home (well, home + one neutral) and that would be good enough to make the NCAA, but drop them from their current place on the 9 line to a 10 seed when the BTT commences. If the team ends up at 8-12 then it will probably barely be in the field at the start of the BTT, but probably need to win two games given all of the bid stealers around the remaining conferences.
The Big Ten is the best conference, but it is not an overwhelming conference. Yes, there could end up being 9-10 bids, but only Michigan State has a real shot at a two seed or better. The conference was looking at 8-9 bids based on non con play, but probability swung heavily in favor of the NIT teams. Illinois had a bubble out non con resume and has piled up wins thus far. Wisconsin had a NIT resume and wins at a top 4 seed Ohio State? That sort of road win rarely happens. Minnesota had a NIT resume and hoped to beat one of Michigan or OSU at home and ends up getting both. The conference isn't a juggernaut. It just happens to have extreme probability that rarely happens.
Since the primary goal IMO is the NCAA then it would be in Michigan's best interest to see some of the bubble teams start to lose in the event the team ends at 8-12. I'm looking at Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana. If Purdue and Minnesota are 10-10 and Indiana is 9-11 then it is a toss up between them and 8-12 Michigan on who would get a bid. Don't need that sort of logjam. Best those three teams end up at 8-12 and Michigan is clearly ahead based on non con wins.
The reality is this team was probably a 8 seed team when healthy all along. The wins in the Bahamas were somewhat of a fluke of hot shooting. If you individually look at each of Creighton, Louisville, Iowa, Illinois and Creighton you can see that Michigan is an 8 seed caliber based on how each of those games went and where they were played.
Michigan needs Livers ASAP, but his absence will have little factor IMO with the committee. Notre Dame lost Bonzie Colson for nearly all of the 2018 conference season and he returned for the final two games and then the ACC Tournament. They had the look of a 8-9 seed when he returned despite the resume showing bubble out. The NCAA did the Irish no favors and they were not included in the tournament. The committee is probably different this year and maybe they will look at things differently. However, if Bonzie Colson didn't factor to the NCAA then certainly Isaiah Livers won't come close to moving the needle.
If the bracket were released today, then Michigan would be a 9 seed. At this time yesterday they were about a 6 looking to slide up to the 5 line with a win over a respectable Penn State team. A win over Illinois on Saturday and then you slide back up to a high 8 seed (meaning close to a 7), but a loss would place them at the cut line for the NCAA. That is how things look in the interim. Wins/losses swing a good 3-4 seeds right now. Wins/losses in early March swing 2 seeds.
A 9-11 conference record would mean they held serve at home (well, home + one neutral) and that would be good enough to make the NCAA, but drop them from their current place on the 9 line to a 10 seed when the BTT commences. If the team ends up at 8-12 then it will probably barely be in the field at the start of the BTT, but probably need to win two games given all of the bid stealers around the remaining conferences.
The Big Ten is the best conference, but it is not an overwhelming conference. Yes, there could end up being 9-10 bids, but only Michigan State has a real shot at a two seed or better. The conference was looking at 8-9 bids based on non con play, but probability swung heavily in favor of the NIT teams. Illinois had a bubble out non con resume and has piled up wins thus far. Wisconsin had a NIT resume and wins at a top 4 seed Ohio State? That sort of road win rarely happens. Minnesota had a NIT resume and hoped to beat one of Michigan or OSU at home and ends up getting both. The conference isn't a juggernaut. It just happens to have extreme probability that rarely happens.
Since the primary goal IMO is the NCAA then it would be in Michigan's best interest to see some of the bubble teams start to lose in the event the team ends at 8-12. I'm looking at Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana. If Purdue and Minnesota are 10-10 and Indiana is 9-11 then it is a toss up between them and 8-12 Michigan on who would get a bid. Don't need that sort of logjam. Best those three teams end up at 8-12 and Michigan is clearly ahead based on non con wins.
The reality is this team was probably a 8 seed team when healthy all along. The wins in the Bahamas were somewhat of a fluke of hot shooting. If you individually look at each of Creighton, Louisville, Iowa, Illinois and Creighton you can see that Michigan is an 8 seed caliber based on how each of those games went and where they were played.
Michigan needs Livers ASAP, but his absence will have little factor IMO with the committee. Notre Dame lost Bonzie Colson for nearly all of the 2018 conference season and he returned for the final two games and then the ACC Tournament. They had the look of a 8-9 seed when he returned despite the resume showing bubble out. The NCAA did the Irish no favors and they were not included in the tournament. The committee is probably different this year and maybe they will look at things differently. However, if Bonzie Colson didn't factor to the NCAA then certainly Isaiah Livers won't come close to moving the needle.
