Originally posted by Reality Man:
Reasonable picks...although I did notice you picked UM to lose 3 home games.
I am not saying Rudock (who may get here) is some great qb but if UM can find a guy who doesn't turn the ball over...UM can win some games with defense, etc. We will see but we agree on the qb position.
Giving Gardner way too much leeway on the turnovers. His TO's killed UM. Not all his fault...but I don't Harbaugh could win with that qb play.
Discounting Isaac too much. USC wasn't overly thrilled to lose him. I think Green is going to be a better/tougher rb under this staff. He was coming on a little and with decent OL play and a qb who can throw accurate 5 yard outs...UM can possibly move the chains.
Why are you so negative on the TE's...Butt is half way decent. UM has some blocking TE's plus Khalid Hill should be a good H-Back in this system.
The reason to dismiss the wr's and TE's is because UM had Gardner throwing balls to them. Half the time...nobody knew where the ball was going.
Why is Darboh or Canteen not a legitimate option with a decent qb. If UM finds a qb that can throw a screen pass, a slant and some underneath stuff...UM can o.k. on offense.
UM may only win 7 games but might win 9 games in an ugly manner. You are pessimistic whereas I see a team with some flaws but a good staff, a maturing team with good coaching with a hole at the qb position for the time being.
Reality Man
Yeah, I picked UM to lose 3 home games...though 2 of them are to MSU and OSU, in which Michigan will be a severe dog (despite being at home)
I also picked Michigan to win some fairly significant road games...so you can say that both of those buck some trends, to a certain degree
We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Gardner and Ruddock
In my opinion, a MAJOR part of why Garnder turned the ball over so much is how much of the load he was being asked to carry for Michigan. Michigan had almost nothing else on offense, and not enough on defense to win on defense alone...so he tried to make too much happen and ended up losing the ball (it was a similar, though less severe, issue for Golson late in the 2014 season)
Ruddock is the exact opposite. He lacks the talent and the mental fortitude to do much, so he was "efficient" on paper, but basically ignored TONS AND TONS of oppertunities to help his offense
If you actually watch Iowa games, you know that there were literally 20+ times that Ruddock had WRs running WIDE OPEN down field, he clearly sees them, reacts to them, but decides not to take the risk and ends up choosing a play that goes for 3-4 yards
At the end of the day, I think Gardner is BY FAR the best QB out of the entire group (including Ruddock) but that 2014 Ruddock is better than any other 2014 QB michigan has on it's roster. Michigan fans are going to end up saying "We could be good if we still had Gardner!!"
You're going to have to explain how I'm discounting Isaac too much
You disagree that he was USC's #5 RB in 2013? Or that he was clearly behind his fellow frosh RB Justin Davis? Or that he was barley seeing the field before Davis and another RB got hurt? Or that his only real touches were in blowouts and mop up duty?
I'm not saying that Isaac sucks, but you can tell most 5* studs at RB their first year (Gurley, Chubb, Fournette, Freeman, Pernine, Yeldon, etc.)
Michigan counting on Isaac to come in and really change the RB production is like ND counting on Bryant to come back and totally transform our RB position....and we've been getting more our of the position than Michigan has
I think your RB position is okay, I just don't see anything even close to special there. Very "run of the mill" once you get past the star rankings
I'm not "down on your TEs" necessarily, I'm just "not high on your TEs" either
You got about 300 total yards receiving and 3 TDs from your TE position as a whole....ND got that from 1 single TE in 2014....and he was our "worst" starting TE in over a decade
Beyond a lack of real dynamic playmaking, there is no one on your roster that's shown they're an above average blocker, and your most versatile blocker (Hill) is coming of a major injury
Not to mention the fact that Harbaugh really likes to use 2-3 TEs in a lot of his sets, and Michigan really only has 1 TE that they want to put on the field right now (Butt)
What's there to get excited about in this group?
And no, you can't toss the fact that your WR's have failed to make any real impact on your QB. Quality WR's have made major impacts with QB's who are far worse than Gardner.
Darboh has never shown he's anything other than an average possession receiver and Canteen is 175lbs soaking wet...with a total of 1 catch to his name (definition of "spring game star")
When your starting 3 WR's consistent of Darboh, Chesson, and ??? and you're returning about 800 total yards in your receiver core....you have a boarderline pathetic unit
I'm really not sure how you could say anything but "This group has yet to show anything at all on a CFB field", and it's not like you have some dominating, 5* stud coming in to help either...in fact you lose the closest thing you have to that from 2014
What I really see you saying is:
1.) If Michigan gets a QB transfer
2.) If that QB transfer and every other QB makes major steps forward
3.) If that QB can produce for us, while barley ever turning the ball over
4.) If an RB goes from 5th string (2-years ago) to being a good starter
5.) If our TEs improve in both receiving and in blocking
6.) If TE's who have never played more than a few snaps become major
7.) If our 2 best WR's take a major step forward and become reliable
8.) If 2-3 of our other WR's emerge from never having done anything
9.) If our OL can start really playing physical for the first time in years
10.) If our OL can play consistently and not get confused by every blitz known to man
You need all that just to have a "solid, consistent, efficient offense" that you still have to pair with a really good defense to win low scoring ball games
And that's an insane amount of "if's", several that aren't very likely to happen at all, to just get to "solid/good"
Usually when you have to do that much hoping, praying, squinting-at-the-facts to get to "solid/good", the reality is that you're going to be pretty dang bad
That's what I anticipate for Michigan's offense in 2014.....pretty dang bad, especially against any team with decent quality, especially in run defense
