I haven’t yet been able to figure out if the likes of OSU and PSU are yet doing what we’re doing with our roster - essentially getting to 100 or more “scholarship” guys. It takes a lot of legwork to figure out if you haven’t been tracking those rosters like I do with ours.
But even if they’re not doing it yet and we get a competitive advantage… it’s only going to be for a year, because the competition will inevitably see our class and think, “wait, how can Michigan take 32?”… figure out what we're doing… and start doing it themselves.
But this will have a massive downstream effect on college football. Let’s assume that 2/3 of the Power 5 schools (46 programs) keep an average of an extra 10 guys apiece. (The "bigger" programs will be 15 more like us, the midsize will probably be able to afford maybe 5.)
That’s another 500 players that aren’t available for the lower Power 5 and mid-majors.
And time will tell if this leads to a spreading out of 4* talent now that it will be much, much harder than before to play early at the big programs, knowing that they're going to take twice as many as will ever play, and lots of guys will leave after a year or two. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Some guys will inevitably choose lower-level programs where they'll play sooner. Others will just embrace the competition, not viewing the possibility of having to switch colleges as a big problem if it comes to that.
So a team like Michigan will consistently have 60-ish first and second year players on the roster, knowing that half will leave and those who stay will get on the field.
In time, I think this will all but end the need to do what we did this year, taking 7 grad transfers. If we're taking lots of bites at the recruiting apple and maintaining a roster of 100, with 5-8 more recruits in every class... we're rarely going to need a "free agent" to plug a hole.
Among other things, I think this is going to separate the "biggest" 10-15 programs from the pack even more. Only the absolute elite guys are going to play early there; the average point at which a player gets into the rotation/starts is going to be later in his career than before.
Think about our 2023 class: Jyaire Hill is pretty much the only guy we're even talking about potentially getting on the field. There'll probably be a couple of more who manage to play special teams. But that's it. There isn't one position where we are expecting a true freshman to step into the 2-deep, let alone counting on it.
As as I described above, this profile of program will rarely be left scrambling to fill an urgent need if every position room had an extra 2-3 guys in it all along.
Right now, that's the sign of a championship contender. But as all the top teams' rosters expand to 90-105 using "NIL" for players who have graduated before their eligibility is exhausted, this is going to become the norm for programs like Michigan.
But even if they’re not doing it yet and we get a competitive advantage… it’s only going to be for a year, because the competition will inevitably see our class and think, “wait, how can Michigan take 32?”… figure out what we're doing… and start doing it themselves.
But this will have a massive downstream effect on college football. Let’s assume that 2/3 of the Power 5 schools (46 programs) keep an average of an extra 10 guys apiece. (The "bigger" programs will be 15 more like us, the midsize will probably be able to afford maybe 5.)
That’s another 500 players that aren’t available for the lower Power 5 and mid-majors.
And time will tell if this leads to a spreading out of 4* talent now that it will be much, much harder than before to play early at the big programs, knowing that they're going to take twice as many as will ever play, and lots of guys will leave after a year or two. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Some guys will inevitably choose lower-level programs where they'll play sooner. Others will just embrace the competition, not viewing the possibility of having to switch colleges as a big problem if it comes to that.
So a team like Michigan will consistently have 60-ish first and second year players on the roster, knowing that half will leave and those who stay will get on the field.
In time, I think this will all but end the need to do what we did this year, taking 7 grad transfers. If we're taking lots of bites at the recruiting apple and maintaining a roster of 100, with 5-8 more recruits in every class... we're rarely going to need a "free agent" to plug a hole.
Among other things, I think this is going to separate the "biggest" 10-15 programs from the pack even more. Only the absolute elite guys are going to play early there; the average point at which a player gets into the rotation/starts is going to be later in his career than before.
Think about our 2023 class: Jyaire Hill is pretty much the only guy we're even talking about potentially getting on the field. There'll probably be a couple of more who manage to play special teams. But that's it. There isn't one position where we are expecting a true freshman to step into the 2-deep, let alone counting on it.
As as I described above, this profile of program will rarely be left scrambling to fill an urgent need if every position room had an extra 2-3 guys in it all along.
Right now, that's the sign of a championship contender. But as all the top teams' rosters expand to 90-105 using "NIL" for players who have graduated before their eligibility is exhausted, this is going to become the norm for programs like Michigan.
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