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The pre-season rule of relativity

Jim__S

Heisman
May 29, 2001
10,150
38,132
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Over the years I have come to take all spring/summer/fall camp reports with a grain of salt. Not that observers are not trying to be objective. It is just that in so many ways football is a game of relativity. In a sense an almost zero sum equation. When the offense performs well (net positive) it is usually associated with the defense performing equally poorly (net negative), and vice-versa. So often it is diifficult for observers to actually assess how good the offense and/or defense are until they play an outside opponent.

So, what did we learn from yesterday's game against Michigan State that suggest that fall camp reports may have been overly optimistic?


Observation One:

Our secondary was scorched, in particular the cornerbacks. On the other hand, our receivers had a hard time creating downfield separation. Milton was okay at QB, but sailed many of his deep balls.

Provisional conclusion One:

Our receivers going against our corners in camp may have suggested a higher degree of proficiency than we actually possess. Our corners may not have been so exposed in camp on the deep ball simply because the receivers and Milton did not have the skills to expose them. For example, Milton's lack of accuracy on the deep ball. For example, lacking tall receivers who are vertical threats on deep balls. For example, having young receivers who may be fast but do not yet possess the technique to create separation when running mid to deep routes. And of course, on the other side of the coin our corners were going up against our shorter and inexperienced receivers, not Nico Collins or DPJ. One final thought. Ambry and Nico opting out REALLY hurt us. REALLY.


Observation Two:

Offensive and defensive line play. Our offensive line was simply not holding up at the point of attack. MSU was able to effectively use stunts and twists on the pass rush and they clogged up the middle in the running game. Our defense line was solid against the run (unlike last week) but was unable to put any pressure on Michigan State's QB, in part because they were often going up against max protect schemes to buy time for Lombardi to get the ball deep to his receivers.

Provisional Conclusion Two:

After the cornerbacks and Milton's lack of experience, two other major question marks facing this Michigan team were the young offensive line (just one full-time returning starter in Mayfield) and the lack of bulk/high-end talent at the DT positions. As noted, both were exposed yesterday. With respect to the OL, I think that pat of this is because in practice they are primarily blocking for RPOs and quick short and medium passes. Michigan, playing from behind most of the game and averaging a third and nine, often was forced to protect Milton those few extra seconds to allow the receivers to get downfield. And Milton was often under pressure in the pocket. Moreover, our inside running game was exposed. Showing the lack of experience of the interior OLs (a walk-on center in Vastardis, Filiaga - seeing his first quality reps and Stueber-coming back from an injury) and often breakdowns with respect to the entire OL acting as a unit (I remember one play where two blockers went after the same DE while the OLB was left free to blow up the play). Experience will most definitely help here but I assume that going against our DTs in practice (a journeyman in Kemp and a still learning Hinton) may have given our linemen, and observers, a false sense of of optimism. And, of course, vice-versa. Perhaps Aidan Hutchinson was looking like a Bosa while going up against a still-learning Ryan Hayes. And Kemp and Hnlton would also look relatively good while going up against our interior OLs.


Observation Three:

The team, the team, the team needs coaching, coaching, coaching. Poor coaching all over, especially on defense. Yes, as we all saw, out defense was exposed by a lesser talent. This, actually, is a disturbing rarity for a Don Brown defense. Usually they dominate against poor competition, where whey can easily outman the opponents going man-to-man, while being regularly exposed by the better and, especially, elite (ie. Ohio State) teams. On offense there was an insistence on running the ball too much straight up the gut, playing running backs on a straight rotation basis and not going with the hot hand, and being to gimmicky near the goal line with that wildcat (brings back disturbing memories of Peppers being wasted in that formation with little success against the likes of Ohio State). Finally, why no challenge on the cleary bobbled ball on what turned out to be Michigan State's game-winning drive?

Provisional Conclusion Three:

The Don Brown defense. Two glaring weaknesses - cornerback and defensive tackle. Over most of Don's career as Michigan DC he has been blessed with high-end talent at CB and DT. Guys like Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribling, Ambry, L. Hill and Long at corner. And the defensive line? In 2016 the starting four were Ryan Glasgow, Matt Godin, Chris Wormley and Taco. The back-ups were Mo Hurst, Mone, Rashan Gary, and Chase. Those great backups started the next year. Last year while our DEs flourished with Kwity, Aidan and Mike Danna, our DTs were weak (Kemp, Dwumfour). We lack that great eight deep that we had in 2016. We lack the starting talent we had in 2017. Those two years we were able to go toe-to-toe with Ohio State, especially on defense (a QB beter than O'Korn in 2017 would have done wonders). With the subsequent degradation of talent at DT and corner, starting in 2018 at the DT spots, Brown's defense has been exposed against the good teams and eaten alive by Ohio State. BUT, at least we had talented cornerbacks who we could leave out there on an island (against most teams, but not Ohio State's elite talent). This year, we could end up being a touch better at DT as Hinton develops but we have little depth across the entire defensive line. And, unlike the offensive line, this is an area where heavy rotational play is needed to keep defenders fresh. This is a MAJOR issue. So is the defensive line coaching. Hello Mr. Nua? To be frank, losing Greg Mattison was a major, major blow, both with respect to coaching up the unit (as we now see) and with respect to recruiting (which will really hit us hard next year with the loss of Kwity, Aidan and possibly Kemp-he has a free 6th year due to covid-19 and he may take it). Next year's defensive line may be scary bad. I mean we probably have to go back to the RichRod era to find a weaker DL. Now the cornerbacks. Unfortunately, here we are scary bad now. And without solid cornerback play the Don Brown defense does not work. Manning up and not going zone? Leaving those tall corners who lack the quickness and recovery speed to cover under-recruited Michigan State receivers. Playing a hands on style of coverage where penalty after penalty is called when dealing with an officiating crew that calls a tight (albeit one-way) game? Simply put, a recipe for disaster, as we all witnessed on Saturday. The answer? Who knows. There is a lack of talent at those key spots. In such situations you need to implement a defense that can cover up those weaknesses as much as possible. That, alas, is not Brown's style of coaching. It is a man-to-man and very aggressive style. Attack, attack, attack. Looks great against an outmanned opponent. Can get away with it against a similarly talented opponent. Completely exposed against an elite opponent. The problem is that with this defense we can outman an opponent at 9/11 positions but if two of our outmanned spots are our corners on an island, well, either adjustments need to be made or what happened yesterday will happen, again and again.

The offense. First, stop the gimmick plays. Go with your bread-and-butter football. Repetition gets you closer to perfection. Second, go with your hot running back. Not necessarily for the entire game but please stop this all four will get their somewhat equal carries nonsense. There is plenty enough depth to not wear down a hot back if he gets, say, a whole ten carries instead of just six. Third, we need to be a bit patient with the offense. It is indeed very talented but also very young and inexperienced. Here actual coaching and player development over the season will be critical. I expect to see improvements. We failed to put many of our players in a position to succeed yesterday. I would have liked to see more crossing patterns for Milton. He is solid there. Sure, a higher chance for a turnover and I know that they want to bring him along slowly, but I think a few more of those as opposed to deep balls to uncovered receivers that sailed would have given us a better chance against State.

Coach Harbaugh. The buck stops with Jim, as all of the above is his responsibility. One thing I would like to point out, however, is the failure to challenge that third down bobbled ball by MSU late in the game. That is unacceptable. They have like 50 admin guys on staff. At least two should be responsible for immediately reviewing every play for a possible immediate challenge. Especially a critical play at a critical time like that. That is a failure of putting into place adequate game management procedures. Harbaugh is paid over $7 million a year. I always hear about these guys working endless hours in preparation for games and the season, rarely seeing their families. So, I ask, what the heck are he and his coaches doing during all these working hours? I see a lack of game management procedures with respect to quickly reviewing plays. I see no plan B in our defensive game plan after our corners were exposed early. In fact, the plan A game plan seemed to assume that Michigan State would not be throwing the ball much. Did they see the Rutgers tape? They played poorly but they threw the ball a lot. People sometime make major college coaches out to be brilliant schematics guys who have planned out variations like two chess grandmasters going at it. At the end of the day, I suspect, they are more gym coach than grandmaster.
 
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