I had a crazy Idea this morning. How could I forecast the freshman stats of the Michigan 2021 class?
Step 1: List each class member with their Overall Rivals class rank: Houston = 8, Diabate = 26, Buffkin = 49 etc.
Step 2: Find players in the last three recruiting classes (2018 to 2020) at each comparable Rivals ranking: 8, 26, 49 etc.
Step 3: Gather the freshman stats of each of the three players at each ranking.
Step 4: Average the stats from the three earlier players Freshman years.
Observations
We are going to get one, perhaps two very solid meaningful contributors from their group as freshman
We have a possibility of getting at a player who will jump immediately into a starting role. (9 points, 4 rebounds, etc.)
I noticed for older players there is a BIG jump in performance in the sophomore years. I hope most or all stay for the second year
Do not underestimate the value of experience
IMPORTANT NOTE: We will probably only get ONE or at most TWO freshman break-through players from this groups who get significant minutes because we have too many veterans. NOT ENOUGH MINUTES to go around.
The Results
Caleb Houston = 8th
Freshman Averages: 8.8 points, 2.9 Rebounds, 1.6 Asst.
Moussea Diabate = 26th
Freshman Averages: 9.8 points, 4.5 Rebounds, 1.9 Asst.
Kobe Buffkin = 49th
Freshman Averages: 7.1 points, 3.1 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Average of the Top three
Freshman Averages: 8.6 points, 3.5 Rebounds, 1.6 Asst.
Frankie Collins = 67
Freshman Averages: 4.5 points, 1.7 Rebounds, 0.6 Asst.
Isaiah Barnes = 102
Freshman Averages: 5.3 points, 3.1 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Will Tschetter = 133
Freshman Averages: 5.6 points, 3.2 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Average of the Bottom three
Freshman Averages: 5.1 points, 2.7 Rebounds, 1.0 Asst.
Your thoughts?
Step 1: List each class member with their Overall Rivals class rank: Houston = 8, Diabate = 26, Buffkin = 49 etc.
Step 2: Find players in the last three recruiting classes (2018 to 2020) at each comparable Rivals ranking: 8, 26, 49 etc.
Step 3: Gather the freshman stats of each of the three players at each ranking.
Step 4: Average the stats from the three earlier players Freshman years.
Observations
We are going to get one, perhaps two very solid meaningful contributors from their group as freshman
We have a possibility of getting at a player who will jump immediately into a starting role. (9 points, 4 rebounds, etc.)
I noticed for older players there is a BIG jump in performance in the sophomore years. I hope most or all stay for the second year
Do not underestimate the value of experience
IMPORTANT NOTE: We will probably only get ONE or at most TWO freshman break-through players from this groups who get significant minutes because we have too many veterans. NOT ENOUGH MINUTES to go around.
The Results
Caleb Houston = 8th
Freshman Averages: 8.8 points, 2.9 Rebounds, 1.6 Asst.
Moussea Diabate = 26th
Freshman Averages: 9.8 points, 4.5 Rebounds, 1.9 Asst.
Kobe Buffkin = 49th
Freshman Averages: 7.1 points, 3.1 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Average of the Top three
Freshman Averages: 8.6 points, 3.5 Rebounds, 1.6 Asst.
Frankie Collins = 67
Freshman Averages: 4.5 points, 1.7 Rebounds, 0.6 Asst.
Isaiah Barnes = 102
Freshman Averages: 5.3 points, 3.1 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Will Tschetter = 133
Freshman Averages: 5.6 points, 3.2 Rebounds, 1.2 Asst.
Average of the Bottom three
Freshman Averages: 5.1 points, 2.7 Rebounds, 1.0 Asst.
Your thoughts?
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