I went through all 375 Michigan signees from the 2002 through 2019 classes, using the composite rankings, to determine who was a recruiting "hit" and who was a recruiting "star".
I established some objective criteria...
Anyone who was first or second team All-B1G or was drafted in the first or second round, I categorized as a "star".
Anyone who was a multi-year starter, had one really good season or was drafted at all, I called a "hit".
I also included anyone who transferred elsewhere and worked out at their next school as a "hit" or "star" as well, because it meant the talent ID was correct and he just didn't work out at Michigan for other reasons. So, for example, I categorized Benjamin St-Juste as a "hit" and Zach Charbonnet as a "star". Michigan (and the services) evaluated both of their talent correctly, it's just that injuries kept St-Juste from breaking through here, and Charbonnet was victimized by a loaded RB room.
Then, I also included some guys as "hits" and "stars" who didn't meet the above objective criteria. For example, Jeremy Gallon didn't meet the "star" criteria above, but I mean... dude had almost almost 1400 yards his senior season. He was objectively a more impactful player at Michigan than, say, Devin Funchess, but Funchess went in the second round.
I also included guys like Stephen Spanellis and Trente Jones as "hits" - they were likely starter-caliber, but just had the misfortune of being on Michigan teams with really good offensive lines. Similarly, there were some guys that didn't meet the above criteria, but my gut just said, "yes, that guy could play - he wasn't a miss". Guys like Perry Dorrestein and Obi Ezeh were tough to categorize because they weren't, strictly speaking, "busts"... but they weren't "plus" starters, either. Generally, if a player played a fair bit, I gave him the benefit of the doubt and called him a "hit".
I did not include kickers, punters and long snappers in the numbers.
There will invariably be some guys where we might disagree on how to categorize them. Feel free to bring up names and we can discuss. I am not above changing which column some guys were in.
(Also note, if you didn't assume as much: "stars" are included in the "hit" numbers.)
With all that said... here's the tale of the tape...
HIT RATE BY STAR RATING
5*: 75% (12/16)
4*: 54.3% (102/188)
2*/3*: 35.9%% (61/170)
STAR RATE BY STAR RATING
5*: 50% (8/16)
4*: 15.4% (29/188)
2*/3*: 5.9% (10/170)
I established some objective criteria...
Anyone who was first or second team All-B1G or was drafted in the first or second round, I categorized as a "star".
Anyone who was a multi-year starter, had one really good season or was drafted at all, I called a "hit".
I also included anyone who transferred elsewhere and worked out at their next school as a "hit" or "star" as well, because it meant the talent ID was correct and he just didn't work out at Michigan for other reasons. So, for example, I categorized Benjamin St-Juste as a "hit" and Zach Charbonnet as a "star". Michigan (and the services) evaluated both of their talent correctly, it's just that injuries kept St-Juste from breaking through here, and Charbonnet was victimized by a loaded RB room.
Then, I also included some guys as "hits" and "stars" who didn't meet the above objective criteria. For example, Jeremy Gallon didn't meet the "star" criteria above, but I mean... dude had almost almost 1400 yards his senior season. He was objectively a more impactful player at Michigan than, say, Devin Funchess, but Funchess went in the second round.
I also included guys like Stephen Spanellis and Trente Jones as "hits" - they were likely starter-caliber, but just had the misfortune of being on Michigan teams with really good offensive lines. Similarly, there were some guys that didn't meet the above criteria, but my gut just said, "yes, that guy could play - he wasn't a miss". Guys like Perry Dorrestein and Obi Ezeh were tough to categorize because they weren't, strictly speaking, "busts"... but they weren't "plus" starters, either. Generally, if a player played a fair bit, I gave him the benefit of the doubt and called him a "hit".
I did not include kickers, punters and long snappers in the numbers.
There will invariably be some guys where we might disagree on how to categorize them. Feel free to bring up names and we can discuss. I am not above changing which column some guys were in.
(Also note, if you didn't assume as much: "stars" are included in the "hit" numbers.)
With all that said... here's the tale of the tape...
HIT RATE BY STAR RATING
5*: 75% (12/16)
4*: 54.3% (102/188)
2*/3*: 35.9%% (61/170)
STAR RATE BY STAR RATING
5*: 50% (8/16)
4*: 15.4% (29/188)
2*/3*: 5.9% (10/170)
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