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Some very early bubble thoughts after tonight....

Gumbo02

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Mar 30, 2005
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Somewhat numb to these games. Lose to 0-14 Penn State and one month later make the Final Four. Lose to Ohio State in February and then play like a top 5 team for the rest of the year. Lose to NJIT and EMU and later your starting backcourt and still push national runner up Wisconsin in two separate games.

You just never know with Beilein some time. His teams usually improve as the season moved along, but outside of 2014 the results in the non con highly correlate with conference numbers.

I still don't know for certain, but based on some of these early Big Ten results, I would say road games at Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska will be easier than tonight. The Big Ten is a bad conference and will receive only 4-5 bids (closer to four at the moment).

Here is where we are though with numbers. Michigan is 7-3 with a pair of tough non con opponents, followed by three low major teams and 16 conference games. Here is how the possible NCAA seeding goes entering MSG.

23-8 (6 seed)
22-9 (8 seed)
21-10 (10 seed)
20-11 (first four out)

So even if the team goes a decent 10-8 in high major games, they will be out entering MSG. To even get a decent six seed the team would need to split with UCLA/Texas and go 12-4 in the remaining conference games. The latter is basically a fantasy at this point.

Whenever Beilein has been on the bubble, he has got his team in the NCAA. I have a feeling though that this loss tonight is going to really hurt in early March.
 
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