Just a few thoughts I have after watching part of at least 55 of the 60 games played the last two weeks...
This may have been one of the least exciting NCAA tournaments I can remember. Cinderella stories really ended after Round 1. The only "surprise" teams in the Sweet 16 were a bluebood program (UCLA), a decent team with a pretty solid history that beat a weak #1 seed (NC State), a team that was a #1 seed last year (Wichita State) and a team with more Final Fours this century than any other school (MSU). And it got worse from there. The Elite 8 featured three #1 seeds, two #2 seeds, and a 3, 4, and 7 seed. And the 4 and 7 seeds were MSU and Louisville. I know that 2008 was the most "chalk" tourney ever when all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, but at least that year you had a couple of Cinderellas in the Sweet 16 and Davidson make it all the way to the Elite 8. This was the anti-underdog year. On that note, despite the lack of a Cinderella story, I haven't been all that impressed with the top teams. Kentucky is unbeaten, but hardly feels dominant. Duke is playing well right now, and could win it all, but they don't feel like an elite team. The only team that feels like a traditional dominant Final Four team to me is Wisconsin, and I'm not really sold on them. In short, I'm pretty sure that most of these Final Four teams would be sitting at home right now in most other years. Regarding MSU - I HATE HATE HATE to give credit to Tom Izzo, but what he's done this year is impressive. This is a team I thought would struggle to make the tourney. And after they lost to Illinois, they were a bubble team. But since then he's had them playing great. Moving Trice to the offguard was a great move and totally changed the team's ability to score - and it limited turnovers as Trice is just not meant to be a point guard. He also found a nice rotation of players that worked that allowed him to extend his bench. Let's not kid ourselves, there is definitely some talent on this team, but not nearly as much as Izzo has had in the past. And of course MSU got some luck with their draw as any of the other 2 or 3 seeds probably would've given them much more trouble. But they still beat 3 of the Top 15-20 teams in the country in the span of a week. That's impressive. I still hope they die like dogs against Duke. On the Final Four - I think the Kentucky/Wisconsin matchup is really interesting because even though I think Kentucky has much better athletes than Wisconsin, Wisconsin is playing really well right now. They've lost 3 games all year and every game they have won has been at least by 5 points (MSU and UM OT games included). They just keep coming at you - and I like their maturity and Bo Ryan's coaching ability to pull it out if its a 1-2 possession game with under 3 minutes to play. If Kentucky can stretch the lead, they will win, but I like Wisconsin if it comes down to the wire. On Duke vs MSU, Duke stomped MSU early in the year, but obviously these are different teams now. To me there are two telling stats as to why I really like Duke. The first is that Coach K is 8-3 in national semifinal games, while Izzo is 2-4. The second is that Izzo is 1-7 against Coach K. Just like Izzo's record in 1 day turnaround games and Elite 8 games matters, I think these will matter too. In the end, I think it ends up being Duke vs UK - and the execs at Turner and CBS can throw themselves the biggest party ever, as that will be a MONSTER rating. Coach K looking for title #5 and trying to keep Calipari and Kentucky from immortality.
This may have been one of the least exciting NCAA tournaments I can remember. Cinderella stories really ended after Round 1. The only "surprise" teams in the Sweet 16 were a bluebood program (UCLA), a decent team with a pretty solid history that beat a weak #1 seed (NC State), a team that was a #1 seed last year (Wichita State) and a team with more Final Fours this century than any other school (MSU). And it got worse from there. The Elite 8 featured three #1 seeds, two #2 seeds, and a 3, 4, and 7 seed. And the 4 and 7 seeds were MSU and Louisville. I know that 2008 was the most "chalk" tourney ever when all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, but at least that year you had a couple of Cinderellas in the Sweet 16 and Davidson make it all the way to the Elite 8. This was the anti-underdog year. On that note, despite the lack of a Cinderella story, I haven't been all that impressed with the top teams. Kentucky is unbeaten, but hardly feels dominant. Duke is playing well right now, and could win it all, but they don't feel like an elite team. The only team that feels like a traditional dominant Final Four team to me is Wisconsin, and I'm not really sold on them. In short, I'm pretty sure that most of these Final Four teams would be sitting at home right now in most other years. Regarding MSU - I HATE HATE HATE to give credit to Tom Izzo, but what he's done this year is impressive. This is a team I thought would struggle to make the tourney. And after they lost to Illinois, they were a bubble team. But since then he's had them playing great. Moving Trice to the offguard was a great move and totally changed the team's ability to score - and it limited turnovers as Trice is just not meant to be a point guard. He also found a nice rotation of players that worked that allowed him to extend his bench. Let's not kid ourselves, there is definitely some talent on this team, but not nearly as much as Izzo has had in the past. And of course MSU got some luck with their draw as any of the other 2 or 3 seeds probably would've given them much more trouble. But they still beat 3 of the Top 15-20 teams in the country in the span of a week. That's impressive. I still hope they die like dogs against Duke. On the Final Four - I think the Kentucky/Wisconsin matchup is really interesting because even though I think Kentucky has much better athletes than Wisconsin, Wisconsin is playing really well right now. They've lost 3 games all year and every game they have won has been at least by 5 points (MSU and UM OT games included). They just keep coming at you - and I like their maturity and Bo Ryan's coaching ability to pull it out if its a 1-2 possession game with under 3 minutes to play. If Kentucky can stretch the lead, they will win, but I like Wisconsin if it comes down to the wire. On Duke vs MSU, Duke stomped MSU early in the year, but obviously these are different teams now. To me there are two telling stats as to why I really like Duke. The first is that Coach K is 8-3 in national semifinal games, while Izzo is 2-4. The second is that Izzo is 1-7 against Coach K. Just like Izzo's record in 1 day turnaround games and Elite 8 games matters, I think these will matter too. In the end, I think it ends up being Duke vs UK - and the execs at Turner and CBS can throw themselves the biggest party ever, as that will be a MONSTER rating. Coach K looking for title #5 and trying to keep Calipari and Kentucky from immortality.
