First thing's first, it's going to be different living in Germany for college football...
Wrap up on last year's class.
Who are, in fact, "the experts?" Every single season it seems they overvalue recruiting rankings and woefully undervalue player development. They also grossly undervalue things like depth and its ability to not only keep a team healthy but fresh throughout the game, particularly in the 4th quarter where Michigan's style of play really starts to show against defenses who have been on the field for 60 plays when Michigan's defensive line has been averaging under 30 plays. They also seem to overvalue things like stats. I get it, metrics are really the only objective measure we have for comparison. However, they must be taken in context. If they had, the likely wouldn't have been so harsh on JJ's lack of them. McCarthy barely saw the second half of the first five games of the season last year. He still threw for just shy of 3000 yards. If he plays those snaps, he likely has 50-60 more attempts given Michigan's offensive philosophy and 3500+ yards last season and we wouldn't be having this conversation but it also opens up injury risk, game fatigue, and a host of other considerations. In the end, it seemed to work out. Sorry to see him get hurt his first preseason game after totally balling out after early jitters. It's true Michigan lost a lot of big contributors at the end of the season in addition to a ton of leadership. They had a remarkably successful draft class and whether they pursue careers in the NFL or elsewhere, the young men of Team 144 will go down as one of the best, if not the best, teams to ever put on the Winged Helmet.
Moving forward.
I'm not sure I've seen a team more disrespected preseason who is deserving of so much more than Team 145. All the talk this year is about the newcomers in USC and Oregon with the southern Nuts (seemingly perennially) primed to have a big year after spending an insane amount of money on their roster. Washington is expected to take a step back after being the national runner up last year and losing a lot of their contributors. Perhaps that is the idea many of these experts have with Michigan. Listening to Klatt and Herbstreit, it's not so simple. Klatt is huge on the opportunity Michigan has week 2 to alter this narrative and frankly, so am I. That game can completely alter the dynamic of the season as far as external outlook. I understand the team may not care about that but the team doesn't have a playoff vote in a season where a team with 2 or 3 losses can get to the playoff and body of work is likely going to be the biggest factor. I'm glad Herbstreit talked about something that appears to be glossed over by a lot of people. A lot of talk about what Michigan lost. Very little talk about what is coming back.
Sure, many of the starters, particularly on offense, are gone. But remember those first five games last season where JJ & co. didn't play the second half? Someone did...Many of the guys starting this year have played A LOT of ball. Many of those guys saw meaningful snaps in key situations not just during the season but in the CFP. You know exactly what you're getting from guys like Edwards, Mullings, Persi, El Hadi, Hinton, Bredeson, and Loveland. You saw Tyler Morris outrun the Bama secondary in the Rose Bowl and all early returns are he's ready to make a big step after two NFL receivers in front of him were drafted. The same can be said for Semaj Morgan (sure he'd love to have that punt return back in the Rose Bowl but he'll rebound). People can also say what they want about Orgi but the coaching staff last year had the confidence in him to put the ball in his hands in huge games, albeit running. Plenty of talk in camp about up and comers that I can't wait to see and very interested to see how they use Klein in that TE2 spot. Loveland is a consensus 1st Team All American and Edwards is second or third team depending on who you talk to and now he's the guy. How people are sleeping on this offense is somewhat a mystery, most of which likely revolves around the QB situation. But how many times have they given QBs who haven't taken a snap the benefit of the doubt? We'll see how the expert elevation of Will Howard works out but it didn't go well for DJ U in Dublin yesterday. If Orgi becomes a Milroe type, watch out, they could be really, really good.
Defensively, I've said this before and I'll say it here, I think they have a chance to be better than last season and that's one of those hilariously scary comments. With the exception of Pete Thamel (whose opinion of defensive line talent should never be taken seriously again), I think everyone believes Michigan's D Line is as good as they get. Graham is a top-10 pick next year and KG may not be far behind him. Edge is going to be fun to watch, too. As a matter of fact, every single D-lineman on the field for the goal line stand vs Bama in OT will be on the field day 1 this year. Linebacker has seen some turnover but they may even be better. Losing Rod Moore to injury stings more than a little. Hopefully, he's able to return by the end of the season. Love to see last season's Nut killer have a repeat performance. Paige, who seems like he's been there forever, is back again and is a helluva ball player (congrats also on being voted a team captain). Will Johnson may very well be a top-5 pick and is a total lockdown corner in an era they're hard to find. Hill was impressive during the spring game and looking to see him make a step. If he turns into the player people seem to think he can be, this corner duo could be flat out frightening for opposing WRs. Berry and McBurrows have massive shoes to fill but Berry, judging from the spring game, seems to be one of those guys who just happens to always be around the football. Those guys are good to have. The other Johnson has seen a lot of the field at safety but he may have to retrieve his facemask from Ebuka's chest plate before he can head out there. When he does though, he's been nothing short of solid for them. Their ability to stay fresh through games and the season may well again be the deciding factor in how far they go. Which brings me to another place, leadership and coaching.
This is the last place where the experts, except Klatt, seem to dwell. They replaced so much and for all the flak they gave Harbaugh, it seems they can't shut up about the fact he's not there anymore. Well, someone who's been there for that entire growing process is. S&C went to their #2 guy. OC promoted from within and Campbell isn't unfamiliar with calling plays, he did it a couple times last year and his gameplan, albeit against lesser competition, showed no drop off from Moore. They lose DCs to the NFL about as much as I lose my car keys on Friday night. So, what do they do now that they're out of up and coming young guys? Well, they go get the guy who designed the system and early returns on that hire seem to be nothing short of extremely positive. All of us know what they're getting with Moore stepping into the HC job. I couldn't be happier for the man and I think he's in an incredible position with this team. From the player side, just look at their captains list for this year. Every single one of them has been with the program a long time. Everyone knows the body of work they've put in. Also, the fact Moore was selected even with his injury and likely unable to contribute for most if not all of the season is a testament to not just his leadership but the team's awareness and recognition of those qualities and doing something because it's deserved. That's a hallmark of a winning culture.
Obviously, this whole thing is just getting started but there's a lot to be excited about. Looking forward to a new season of college football. Enjoy everyone. See you all here on the boards.
Go Blue
Wrap up on last year's class.
Who are, in fact, "the experts?" Every single season it seems they overvalue recruiting rankings and woefully undervalue player development. They also grossly undervalue things like depth and its ability to not only keep a team healthy but fresh throughout the game, particularly in the 4th quarter where Michigan's style of play really starts to show against defenses who have been on the field for 60 plays when Michigan's defensive line has been averaging under 30 plays. They also seem to overvalue things like stats. I get it, metrics are really the only objective measure we have for comparison. However, they must be taken in context. If they had, the likely wouldn't have been so harsh on JJ's lack of them. McCarthy barely saw the second half of the first five games of the season last year. He still threw for just shy of 3000 yards. If he plays those snaps, he likely has 50-60 more attempts given Michigan's offensive philosophy and 3500+ yards last season and we wouldn't be having this conversation but it also opens up injury risk, game fatigue, and a host of other considerations. In the end, it seemed to work out. Sorry to see him get hurt his first preseason game after totally balling out after early jitters. It's true Michigan lost a lot of big contributors at the end of the season in addition to a ton of leadership. They had a remarkably successful draft class and whether they pursue careers in the NFL or elsewhere, the young men of Team 144 will go down as one of the best, if not the best, teams to ever put on the Winged Helmet.
Moving forward.
I'm not sure I've seen a team more disrespected preseason who is deserving of so much more than Team 145. All the talk this year is about the newcomers in USC and Oregon with the southern Nuts (seemingly perennially) primed to have a big year after spending an insane amount of money on their roster. Washington is expected to take a step back after being the national runner up last year and losing a lot of their contributors. Perhaps that is the idea many of these experts have with Michigan. Listening to Klatt and Herbstreit, it's not so simple. Klatt is huge on the opportunity Michigan has week 2 to alter this narrative and frankly, so am I. That game can completely alter the dynamic of the season as far as external outlook. I understand the team may not care about that but the team doesn't have a playoff vote in a season where a team with 2 or 3 losses can get to the playoff and body of work is likely going to be the biggest factor. I'm glad Herbstreit talked about something that appears to be glossed over by a lot of people. A lot of talk about what Michigan lost. Very little talk about what is coming back.
Sure, many of the starters, particularly on offense, are gone. But remember those first five games last season where JJ & co. didn't play the second half? Someone did...Many of the guys starting this year have played A LOT of ball. Many of those guys saw meaningful snaps in key situations not just during the season but in the CFP. You know exactly what you're getting from guys like Edwards, Mullings, Persi, El Hadi, Hinton, Bredeson, and Loveland. You saw Tyler Morris outrun the Bama secondary in the Rose Bowl and all early returns are he's ready to make a big step after two NFL receivers in front of him were drafted. The same can be said for Semaj Morgan (sure he'd love to have that punt return back in the Rose Bowl but he'll rebound). People can also say what they want about Orgi but the coaching staff last year had the confidence in him to put the ball in his hands in huge games, albeit running. Plenty of talk in camp about up and comers that I can't wait to see and very interested to see how they use Klein in that TE2 spot. Loveland is a consensus 1st Team All American and Edwards is second or third team depending on who you talk to and now he's the guy. How people are sleeping on this offense is somewhat a mystery, most of which likely revolves around the QB situation. But how many times have they given QBs who haven't taken a snap the benefit of the doubt? We'll see how the expert elevation of Will Howard works out but it didn't go well for DJ U in Dublin yesterday. If Orgi becomes a Milroe type, watch out, they could be really, really good.
Defensively, I've said this before and I'll say it here, I think they have a chance to be better than last season and that's one of those hilariously scary comments. With the exception of Pete Thamel (whose opinion of defensive line talent should never be taken seriously again), I think everyone believes Michigan's D Line is as good as they get. Graham is a top-10 pick next year and KG may not be far behind him. Edge is going to be fun to watch, too. As a matter of fact, every single D-lineman on the field for the goal line stand vs Bama in OT will be on the field day 1 this year. Linebacker has seen some turnover but they may even be better. Losing Rod Moore to injury stings more than a little. Hopefully, he's able to return by the end of the season. Love to see last season's Nut killer have a repeat performance. Paige, who seems like he's been there forever, is back again and is a helluva ball player (congrats also on being voted a team captain). Will Johnson may very well be a top-5 pick and is a total lockdown corner in an era they're hard to find. Hill was impressive during the spring game and looking to see him make a step. If he turns into the player people seem to think he can be, this corner duo could be flat out frightening for opposing WRs. Berry and McBurrows have massive shoes to fill but Berry, judging from the spring game, seems to be one of those guys who just happens to always be around the football. Those guys are good to have. The other Johnson has seen a lot of the field at safety but he may have to retrieve his facemask from Ebuka's chest plate before he can head out there. When he does though, he's been nothing short of solid for them. Their ability to stay fresh through games and the season may well again be the deciding factor in how far they go. Which brings me to another place, leadership and coaching.
This is the last place where the experts, except Klatt, seem to dwell. They replaced so much and for all the flak they gave Harbaugh, it seems they can't shut up about the fact he's not there anymore. Well, someone who's been there for that entire growing process is. S&C went to their #2 guy. OC promoted from within and Campbell isn't unfamiliar with calling plays, he did it a couple times last year and his gameplan, albeit against lesser competition, showed no drop off from Moore. They lose DCs to the NFL about as much as I lose my car keys on Friday night. So, what do they do now that they're out of up and coming young guys? Well, they go get the guy who designed the system and early returns on that hire seem to be nothing short of extremely positive. All of us know what they're getting with Moore stepping into the HC job. I couldn't be happier for the man and I think he's in an incredible position with this team. From the player side, just look at their captains list for this year. Every single one of them has been with the program a long time. Everyone knows the body of work they've put in. Also, the fact Moore was selected even with his injury and likely unable to contribute for most if not all of the season is a testament to not just his leadership but the team's awareness and recognition of those qualities and doing something because it's deserved. That's a hallmark of a winning culture.
Obviously, this whole thing is just getting started but there's a lot to be excited about. Looking forward to a new season of college football. Enjoy everyone. See you all here on the boards.
Go Blue
