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Recency Bias and CFB Analysis

brandonmcnally12

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Gold Member
Aug 19, 2021
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Even Joel Klatt had to admit this and I've said it on various threads throughout this and other places, recency bias absolutely kills football analysis.

What we saw yesterday wasn't the Michigan or Bama teams from week 13. What we saw was a reflection of the Mich/Bama teams that played weeks 1-12.

Bama was improved but not as good as they played against GA. Mich was not as anemic on offense as they showed against Iowa. When a game happens like Bama/GA, people need to take a step back and start looking at why. That Bama team had just survived a prayer vs Auburn a week prior. They lost to TX at home by 10 and looked very beatable vs USF, TAMU and Arkansas. GA didn't execute the defensive blueprint proven to cause Bama problems. Bama took advantage of that. GA also wasn't the GA of the last couple seasons. All of these things should've been taken into account by professional analysts and they were largely overlooked.

Then, the same analysts refused to take into account the injuries Michigan had suffered late in the season to key players that limited their playmaking ability and thought Iowa was a reflection of where the program was.

Each game is a data point, a snapshot in time from which to evaluate. Until the Penn State game when JJ got hurt, Michigan was easily the most dominant team. With JJ hurt, they still found ways to beat two top 10 teams, one on the road. Iowa was the final culmination of an injured Michigan team just trying to get through a game. They also did all of this without their head coach for 6 games. Make no mistake, there is a difference when your team leader isn't on the sideline during crunch time. They still overcame all of that adversity. The intangibles are what made this team and are likely what will carry this team through Washington next week if they end up in a difficult position.

It's frustrating to see recency bias all over ESPN, message boards, etc. A story likely coming out of this game is Mich special teams are just horrid...again, despite a plethora of evidence to the contrary. I'd say trust what you've seen all season from this team. They're better than any team in the CFP and hopefully they're lifting the hardware in Houston next week. I'll be enjoying it on a flight to Germany.

Go Blue
 
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