I'll be tracking the NCAA Championships Thursday through Saturday on The Fort for you all. I wrestled at NC State from 2006-10 and mostly work behind the scenes on The Wolverine, but always like to come out this time of year and talk wrestling, although I won't be live and in person at NCAAs for the first time in a few years.
Anyway, I think Michigan can outplace their Big Ten finish (fourth) in St. Louis. Iowa is a huge favorite, and then I think there's a pretty tightly grouped number of teams that will be going for second through sixth or even seventh place that Michigan will be a part of. Of course, Penn State is probably the favorite for second place, but IMO it's them, U-M, NC State, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Nebraska and maybe Ohio State in that second tier that will be vying for team trophies (awarded to the top four teams).
I had a thread last week when the seeds came out with some quick takeaways on the Wolverines' draws. The quick version on the seeds:
125 Dylan Ragusin - 11
141 Drew Mattin - 25
149 Kanen Storr - 11
157 Will Lewan - 14
165 Cam Amine - 11
174 Logan Massa - 5
197 Myles Amine - 1
285 Mason Parris - 2
Amine is my pick to win at 197 and I've also got Parris in the finals against Gable Steveson. I don't feel I'm really going out on a limb with either of those, and it'd be great if both could add some bonus points as well.
To get a trophy, they're going to need everybody else to outwrestle their seed, which I think is totally possible. Some of those guys really got hammered by the Big Ten-only schedule — for example, Massa has three losses but they're all to top-four seeds. It's just such a tough league and then there are some others that enter NCAAs with 0 or 1 losses but haven't really wrestled anybody this year. The way the season and seeds went set up for even more March upsets than usual.
The key guys to outwrestle their seeds and score big points, IMO, are Massa, Ragusin and Storr. I think all three are All-America candidates (top 8 finishers) and that's actually what I've predicted in my bracket. Five AAs should put Michigan right in the thick of the trophy race. FWIW, my predictions sure to be wrong have Massa finishing fourth, Raugsin fifth and Storr seventh (I'm very high — some might say too high — on Massa and Ragusin based on their freestyle success).
I also think Cam Amine and Lewan are both capable of making the blood round, even if they lose in their tough draws in the second round. Lewan would be favored in every match in the consolations until No. 11 Jacori Teemer, but the concern there is obviously him medically forfeiting out of Big Tens last week (I'm assuming it was somewhat precautionary since he wrestled until he claimed an auto bid). Still, if he's on that's a winnable one for him. Amine would be favored in every consolation match until the match to get into the blood round against likely No. 8 Shane Griffith of Stanford.
Anyway, if you really want to nerd out on wrestling brackets, there's an awesome tool here that you download as an excel file, plug in your predicted final scores and it will calculate team scores for you here (the link keeps messing up and inserting the doc, so remove the space in this address: https://
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RicFDalIj3VeR5Wqu5RGxMDtXpSeKYr2csqgFMDgNsw/edit#gid=1137790405
FWIW, I didn't put in any bonus points, but have Iowa running away with it, Penn State in second by a good bit then Michigan in third, 1.5 team points (which is basically nothing, especially without bonus points) ahead of NC State, who is 2 team points ahead of Oklahoma State. Basically 10 team points separated No. 3 Michigan and No. 7 Nebraska.
Like I said, I think that 3-6/7 area in the team race is going to be extremely tight so every wrestleback/bonus point is going to matter this year for those squads. Bonus points could jumble up that order I have, but they're so hard to predict outside of a Spencer Lee/Gable Steveson (FWIW, I think Parris is a lock for some bonus points early as well, he's so fun to watch).
Anyway, I think Michigan can outplace their Big Ten finish (fourth) in St. Louis. Iowa is a huge favorite, and then I think there's a pretty tightly grouped number of teams that will be going for second through sixth or even seventh place that Michigan will be a part of. Of course, Penn State is probably the favorite for second place, but IMO it's them, U-M, NC State, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Nebraska and maybe Ohio State in that second tier that will be vying for team trophies (awarded to the top four teams).
I had a thread last week when the seeds came out with some quick takeaways on the Wolverines' draws. The quick version on the seeds:
125 Dylan Ragusin - 11
141 Drew Mattin - 25
149 Kanen Storr - 11
157 Will Lewan - 14
165 Cam Amine - 11
174 Logan Massa - 5
197 Myles Amine - 1
285 Mason Parris - 2
Amine is my pick to win at 197 and I've also got Parris in the finals against Gable Steveson. I don't feel I'm really going out on a limb with either of those, and it'd be great if both could add some bonus points as well.
To get a trophy, they're going to need everybody else to outwrestle their seed, which I think is totally possible. Some of those guys really got hammered by the Big Ten-only schedule — for example, Massa has three losses but they're all to top-four seeds. It's just such a tough league and then there are some others that enter NCAAs with 0 or 1 losses but haven't really wrestled anybody this year. The way the season and seeds went set up for even more March upsets than usual.
The key guys to outwrestle their seeds and score big points, IMO, are Massa, Ragusin and Storr. I think all three are All-America candidates (top 8 finishers) and that's actually what I've predicted in my bracket. Five AAs should put Michigan right in the thick of the trophy race. FWIW, my predictions sure to be wrong have Massa finishing fourth, Raugsin fifth and Storr seventh (I'm very high — some might say too high — on Massa and Ragusin based on their freestyle success).
I also think Cam Amine and Lewan are both capable of making the blood round, even if they lose in their tough draws in the second round. Lewan would be favored in every match in the consolations until No. 11 Jacori Teemer, but the concern there is obviously him medically forfeiting out of Big Tens last week (I'm assuming it was somewhat precautionary since he wrestled until he claimed an auto bid). Still, if he's on that's a winnable one for him. Amine would be favored in every consolation match until the match to get into the blood round against likely No. 8 Shane Griffith of Stanford.
Anyway, if you really want to nerd out on wrestling brackets, there's an awesome tool here that you download as an excel file, plug in your predicted final scores and it will calculate team scores for you here (the link keeps messing up and inserting the doc, so remove the space in this address: https://
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RicFDalIj3VeR5Wqu5RGxMDtXpSeKYr2csqgFMDgNsw/edit#gid=1137790405
FWIW, I didn't put in any bonus points, but have Iowa running away with it, Penn State in second by a good bit then Michigan in third, 1.5 team points (which is basically nothing, especially without bonus points) ahead of NC State, who is 2 team points ahead of Oklahoma State. Basically 10 team points separated No. 3 Michigan and No. 7 Nebraska.
Like I said, I think that 3-6/7 area in the team race is going to be extremely tight so every wrestleback/bonus point is going to matter this year for those squads. Bonus points could jumble up that order I have, but they're so hard to predict outside of a Spencer Lee/Gable Steveson (FWIW, I think Parris is a lock for some bonus points early as well, he's so fun to watch).
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