1. Biggest game for Michigan since 2018 at OSU. In fact, if I were going to rank all of Michigan's games against ranked opponents, this is second on a must-win scale. 2018 OSU was first as we were 0-3 under Harbaugh and had a chance to win a B1G title and playoff berth...and well. But this is second (2016 OSU was huge, but it wasn't a must win, the program was still on solid ground at that point and in many ways arrived earlier than expected). Michigan simply has to win. Lose this, and frankly, only a stunner over OSU will make this season a success in the eyes of many (good luck with that). Win here, and we're in great shape to get to 11 wins for the first time under Harbaugh. Even a respectable loss to OSU would be tolerated (as long as we in the bowl game). Easier to convince recruits that we're close if only OSU stands in the way. We have to have this one.
2. I see a lot of people focusing on the matchup between our corners and MSU's wrs. That's not the key. Nor is it stopping trick plays. The biggest matchup is stuffing Kenneth Walker. It's no coincidence that the two defenses that had success against MSU took away Walker. MSU's passing game is predicated on being able to run the ball. MSU struggles to convert third downs (which you wouldn't expect for a team with a good passing attack). MSU hasn't shown any ability to sustain an explosive offense absent its running game. If Michigan holds Walker in check, then Hutchinson and Obajo can tee off on Thorne. You can't run deep posts if you can't protect the quarterback.
3. On offense, comes down to red zone execution. MSU is 129 out of 130 in terms of total plays faced. Michigan will control the clock and wear down the MSU D. My biggest fear is something like one of the old Carr games in South Bend -- UM moves the ball well and bogs down in the red zone, setting the stage for MSU to steal it with a couple big plays. If UM converts TDs when it counts, I think we see a game similar to 2003. UM takes control and wins semi-comfortably.
Put me down for Michigan 27, MSU 17.
2. I see a lot of people focusing on the matchup between our corners and MSU's wrs. That's not the key. Nor is it stopping trick plays. The biggest matchup is stuffing Kenneth Walker. It's no coincidence that the two defenses that had success against MSU took away Walker. MSU's passing game is predicated on being able to run the ball. MSU struggles to convert third downs (which you wouldn't expect for a team with a good passing attack). MSU hasn't shown any ability to sustain an explosive offense absent its running game. If Michigan holds Walker in check, then Hutchinson and Obajo can tee off on Thorne. You can't run deep posts if you can't protect the quarterback.
3. On offense, comes down to red zone execution. MSU is 129 out of 130 in terms of total plays faced. Michigan will control the clock and wear down the MSU D. My biggest fear is something like one of the old Carr games in South Bend -- UM moves the ball well and bogs down in the red zone, setting the stage for MSU to steal it with a couple big plays. If UM converts TDs when it counts, I think we see a game similar to 2003. UM takes control and wins semi-comfortably.
Put me down for Michigan 27, MSU 17.
