Morning After Analysis: Stat Junkie Stuff and MORE (LONG)
Yes, a LOSS is still a LOSS. I hurt as much as any of you, perhaps even MORE.
Question: What does this tell us about our possibilities for the rest of the season?
Answers:
Morning After Analysis
Situation: Very Tough Draw
We were playing a Top 15 team, On the Road, At Night, in the FIRST game of the year. (Warde?)
In my opinion this was the 2nd toughest game on our schedule behind OSU. I still believe that.
I strongly believe that if ND beats Virginia Tech (I think they lose) they will be in the playoffs and I believed that all summer.
Winnable Game:
The margin of this loss was very small and could have tipped to Michigan on any one of several plays.
We had the ball at midfield at the end with enough time to tie or win the game.
Statistics
Yes statistics are for losers, but they also tell the story
Where We Tied or Did Better
Total Yardage; Advantage Michigan (307 vs. 302) Virtual Tie
Passing Yardage: Advantage Michigan (249 vs. 170) Big Advantage
First Downs: Advantage ND (21 vs. 20) Virtual Tie
3rd Down Conv: Advantage ND (7/15 vs. 6/13) Virtual Tie
Improved after a SLOW Start (We are looking for positives remember?)
After the 7:09 mark of the first quarter Trailing 14-0 (with 89% of the game remaining)
We outscored them for the balance of the game 17-10
We outgained them for the balance of the game 275 yards to 170 yards
Where We Lost the Game
Rushing Yardage: Advantage ND (47 for 137 yds - 2.8 y/c vs. 33 for 57 yds -1.8 y/c) (#1 STAT of the GAME)
Penalties: Advantage ND (4 vs 7) Drive Killers (#2 STAT of the GAME)
Turnovers: Advantage ND (1 vs 2) - This team needs to create more TO's than this to win games.
4th Down Conversions: Advantage ND (1-1 vs 0-3) - When fighting to get back in the game you take risks. I'm not distraught about this.
Conclusions regarding where we are
Positives:
The Defense is still great and will win us some games in spite of our offensive weaknesses
This was the 2nd toughest game we have all year and the margin of the loss was small.
Patterson is a clear upgrade at QB
McCaffrey looked solid and it looks like he will play more than a little bit this season
Issues:
Offensive Line (still) cannot adequately pass protect or run block against good defenses.
Getting to the QB: Attacking defense played well but did not get to Winbush enough. Should have had 5-6 sacks
Big Plays: The Achilles of this otherwise very good defense is BIG plays - Safety play is key
Lack of Discipline: Penalties, Delay of game after kickoff, Targeting ejection, Winovich penalty on a critical 3rd down
Lack of Preparation: No answer for Wimbush running when that was the #1 thing to stop.
Coaching
Trust me, I know how to blame lack of talent for getting beat. When talent gap is large enough average coaching can win a lot of games and beat better coaches. When talent-levels are close coaching/ preparation is the deciding factor. Yesterday this was the case.
Yesterday we needed and deserved a better job from this coaching staff.
Yes, a LOSS is still a LOSS. I hurt as much as any of you, perhaps even MORE.
Question: What does this tell us about our possibilities for the rest of the season?
Answers:
- A win would have been a HUGE positive. A loss does not end the season.
- I still believe it is possible to win them all before OSU.(Not easy but not unrealistic)
- Some lingering weaknesses are still not fixed
Morning After Analysis
Situation: Very Tough Draw
We were playing a Top 15 team, On the Road, At Night, in the FIRST game of the year. (Warde?)
In my opinion this was the 2nd toughest game on our schedule behind OSU. I still believe that.
I strongly believe that if ND beats Virginia Tech (I think they lose) they will be in the playoffs and I believed that all summer.
Winnable Game:
The margin of this loss was very small and could have tipped to Michigan on any one of several plays.
We had the ball at midfield at the end with enough time to tie or win the game.
Statistics
Yes statistics are for losers, but they also tell the story
Where We Tied or Did Better
Total Yardage; Advantage Michigan (307 vs. 302) Virtual Tie
Passing Yardage: Advantage Michigan (249 vs. 170) Big Advantage
First Downs: Advantage ND (21 vs. 20) Virtual Tie
3rd Down Conv: Advantage ND (7/15 vs. 6/13) Virtual Tie
Improved after a SLOW Start (We are looking for positives remember?)
After the 7:09 mark of the first quarter Trailing 14-0 (with 89% of the game remaining)
We outscored them for the balance of the game 17-10
We outgained them for the balance of the game 275 yards to 170 yards
Where We Lost the Game
Rushing Yardage: Advantage ND (47 for 137 yds - 2.8 y/c vs. 33 for 57 yds -1.8 y/c) (#1 STAT of the GAME)
Penalties: Advantage ND (4 vs 7) Drive Killers (#2 STAT of the GAME)
Turnovers: Advantage ND (1 vs 2) - This team needs to create more TO's than this to win games.
4th Down Conversions: Advantage ND (1-1 vs 0-3) - When fighting to get back in the game you take risks. I'm not distraught about this.
Conclusions regarding where we are
Positives:
The Defense is still great and will win us some games in spite of our offensive weaknesses
This was the 2nd toughest game we have all year and the margin of the loss was small.
Patterson is a clear upgrade at QB
McCaffrey looked solid and it looks like he will play more than a little bit this season
Issues:
Offensive Line (still) cannot adequately pass protect or run block against good defenses.
Getting to the QB: Attacking defense played well but did not get to Winbush enough. Should have had 5-6 sacks
Big Plays: The Achilles of this otherwise very good defense is BIG plays - Safety play is key
Lack of Discipline: Penalties, Delay of game after kickoff, Targeting ejection, Winovich penalty on a critical 3rd down
Lack of Preparation: No answer for Wimbush running when that was the #1 thing to stop.
Coaching
Trust me, I know how to blame lack of talent for getting beat. When talent gap is large enough average coaching can win a lot of games and beat better coaches. When talent-levels are close coaching/ preparation is the deciding factor. Yesterday this was the case.
Yesterday we needed and deserved a better job from this coaching staff.
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