NFL talent is by far the easiest predictor of college football success. Since 2015 the teams with the 5 most NFL Draft picks have been Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, LSU, and Ohio State. They are also the teams with the 5 most total wins, the most first round picks, and have won every national championship of the playoff era, while having comprised at least 3/4 of the total playoff in 4 of the 6, and at least 2/4 playoff teams in ALL of them.
It's very simple: NFL players beat college level talents far more often than not.
So, with that idea in mind, let's look at how RR was "building" the program. He recruited roughly half of the 2008 and 2011 classes, and all of 2009 and 2010. In all, 71 players that committed to Rich Rodriguez signed LOIs to attend UM. Here's how that went:
2008: Only Patrick Omameh ever made an NFL roster, he was undrafted. Kenny Demens did as well, but he was a Carr recruit.
2009: By far the "summit" of the RR era. Denard, Lewan, Schofield and Will Campbell made an NFL roster. Robinson went in the 5th round, Schofield the third (95th), Campbell the 6th, and Lewan the first.
2010: Only Jake Ryan, a fourth round pick.
2011: 0 players recruited by RR made an NFL roster. Rawls committed to Hoke, as did Countess.
That is an absolutely astonishing lack of both development and evaluation. The 2010 class, for instance, which featured 27 total players, produced just 1 NFL player, a late 4th round pick. Overall, only 5 RR recruited players were drafted, just one in the top 95 overall of their respective draft, and just 2 in the top 150 overall.
Here is some perspective on just how preposterously horrible that is:
Brady Hoke recruited all of the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes. Here's how they did:
2012: Henry, Chesson, Darboh, Wormley, Kalis, Willson, Godin, Ross, Funchess, Braden, Frank Clark, all made NFL rosters. 6 drafted.
2013: Delano Hill, Stribling (though literally for 2 games), Hurst, Gedeon, Butt, JD, Taco, Dymonte Thomas. 8 made NFL rosters, 6 drafted.
2014: Watson, Winovich, Peppers, Cole, Mone. 5 made NFL rosters (only a 15 person class), 4 drafted.
Overall, in his 3 full classes Hoke recruited 62 kids. 24 made NFL rosters, 17 were drafted. 3 were first round picks, 7 top 100 overall.
Here's JH. He's had three full classes that are draft eligible during his tenure: 2016-2018
2016: Gary, Asiasi, Hill, Eubanks (signed by Cowboys, not sure if he will make team yet), Hudson, Uche, Long, Metellus, Bredeson, Mckeon, Evans, Onwenu, Bush, all made NFL rosters, 12 drafted. 6 still in college.
2017: Nico, Ruiz, DPJ, Ambry, Paye. Hudson, Mason, St. Juste, were all drafted. 20 of the 30 commits still have college eligibility, 12 remain with UM.
2018: McGrone, Mayfield drafted. 17 of the 19 commits retain at least one year of eligibility.
Overall, of the 36 total recruits under JH that have exhausted their college eligibility, an ASTONISHING 23 have made NFL rosters, 22 drafted, 4 first round picks, 14 in the top 125 overall.
RR wins per full season: 5.
Hoke wins per full season: 8.
JH wins per full season: 9.5
This isn't rocket science. We have literally never seen such horrific evaluation, recruiting, and development as we did under RR. The results, logically, followed as such. Hoke immensely improved the talent level, but most of his NFL caliber players were later round and undrafted prospects, with a UM player that made the league roughly 7x more likely to be undrafted and make roster than under JH, and an average draft position almost 75 spots lower.
JH has taken things to a totally new level. Incredible hit rate, higher top end talent, even those that transfer out are making the NFL at a very high rate comparatively. Here is the sad part: looking at this we have underachieved, no doubt about it. It would appear we were a high level QB from multiple championships (conference not national) under JH. Honestly in all of 2016-2019 the roster quality supported playoff level seasons. The QB play, though much better with SP, did not.
Yes, I had way too much time at my office today.
It's very simple: NFL players beat college level talents far more often than not.
So, with that idea in mind, let's look at how RR was "building" the program. He recruited roughly half of the 2008 and 2011 classes, and all of 2009 and 2010. In all, 71 players that committed to Rich Rodriguez signed LOIs to attend UM. Here's how that went:
2008: Only Patrick Omameh ever made an NFL roster, he was undrafted. Kenny Demens did as well, but he was a Carr recruit.
2009: By far the "summit" of the RR era. Denard, Lewan, Schofield and Will Campbell made an NFL roster. Robinson went in the 5th round, Schofield the third (95th), Campbell the 6th, and Lewan the first.
2010: Only Jake Ryan, a fourth round pick.
2011: 0 players recruited by RR made an NFL roster. Rawls committed to Hoke, as did Countess.
That is an absolutely astonishing lack of both development and evaluation. The 2010 class, for instance, which featured 27 total players, produced just 1 NFL player, a late 4th round pick. Overall, only 5 RR recruited players were drafted, just one in the top 95 overall of their respective draft, and just 2 in the top 150 overall.
Here is some perspective on just how preposterously horrible that is:
Brady Hoke recruited all of the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes. Here's how they did:
2012: Henry, Chesson, Darboh, Wormley, Kalis, Willson, Godin, Ross, Funchess, Braden, Frank Clark, all made NFL rosters. 6 drafted.
2013: Delano Hill, Stribling (though literally for 2 games), Hurst, Gedeon, Butt, JD, Taco, Dymonte Thomas. 8 made NFL rosters, 6 drafted.
2014: Watson, Winovich, Peppers, Cole, Mone. 5 made NFL rosters (only a 15 person class), 4 drafted.
Overall, in his 3 full classes Hoke recruited 62 kids. 24 made NFL rosters, 17 were drafted. 3 were first round picks, 7 top 100 overall.
Here's JH. He's had three full classes that are draft eligible during his tenure: 2016-2018
2016: Gary, Asiasi, Hill, Eubanks (signed by Cowboys, not sure if he will make team yet), Hudson, Uche, Long, Metellus, Bredeson, Mckeon, Evans, Onwenu, Bush, all made NFL rosters, 12 drafted. 6 still in college.
2017: Nico, Ruiz, DPJ, Ambry, Paye. Hudson, Mason, St. Juste, were all drafted. 20 of the 30 commits still have college eligibility, 12 remain with UM.
2018: McGrone, Mayfield drafted. 17 of the 19 commits retain at least one year of eligibility.
Overall, of the 36 total recruits under JH that have exhausted their college eligibility, an ASTONISHING 23 have made NFL rosters, 22 drafted, 4 first round picks, 14 in the top 125 overall.
RR wins per full season: 5.
Hoke wins per full season: 8.
JH wins per full season: 9.5
This isn't rocket science. We have literally never seen such horrific evaluation, recruiting, and development as we did under RR. The results, logically, followed as such. Hoke immensely improved the talent level, but most of his NFL caliber players were later round and undrafted prospects, with a UM player that made the league roughly 7x more likely to be undrafted and make roster than under JH, and an average draft position almost 75 spots lower.
JH has taken things to a totally new level. Incredible hit rate, higher top end talent, even those that transfer out are making the NFL at a very high rate comparatively. Here is the sad part: looking at this we have underachieved, no doubt about it. It would appear we were a high level QB from multiple championships (conference not national) under JH. Honestly in all of 2016-2019 the roster quality supported playoff level seasons. The QB play, though much better with SP, did not.
Yes, I had way too much time at my office today.
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