So I'm going to do a series of posts. The first is here, where the numbers say that on a wins and losses basis, Michigan is as good or better than every other Big 10 team aside from t.osu.
michigan.forums.rivals.com
But What is Coach affect? The College Football Matrix dude studies coach effect. I haven't subscribed or looked into the real numbers he puts out, but I know Harbaugh's coach effect is horrible. What coach effect measures is the presumed quality of a coach based on two things. 1. How do they do in games when their recruiting rankings are compared to the other team? So if Michigan has top 10 recruiting classes every year and they lose to a team that recruits in the 30s, that's a positive coach effect for the theoretically less talented team, and a negative coach effect for the more talented team. (Look, I know that attrition and the portal and a lot of things make this an imperfect thing, but on its face, it makes sense). 2. The second coach effect measure is how a team performs based on whether it is favored in a game or the underdog. Do you win the games you're supposed to win? Do you lose games you're favored in? Do you win games you're not favored to win? If your program is a better recruiter and gets upset often, then there is an argument that you're being outcoached in games. And if you never upset a team that recruits better than you, then that's a commentary too.
Spencer Hall on harbaugh:
"LITTLE HARBAUGH: Here’s the part that amazed me! Since Harbaugh arrived in 2015, his program is the only one in all of FBS with zero upset victories. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-10 as underdogs. Even Bama has an upset win in that span, and Bama’s only been an underdog once.
So while the original premise of my other post is "Let the man do his job." There's a converse argument that He's won game's he was favored to win. Lost some games he was favored to win. And never delivered an upset victory until Wisconsin 2021 who is a sub .500 conference team so far this year.
I personally think he is figuring it out but here is a difference when comparing Michigan to other B10 teams. I don't think Wisconsin or Iowa is operating with any intention of trying to beat Ohio State. There is a difference between building a program that is best suited to navigate your schedule and one that really intends to be great. I believe Wisconsin plays a style meant to beat up on the west division while being aware of the weather they play in and they have no worries about whether they ever beat OSU. They play to their identity and put running backs and OLs into the NFL but Brooks Bollinger is the only QB they have had in the league (Wilson does not count IMO). They protect their below average QBs with their run game and defense. That'll win them the west and get them to a loss in Indy. And Madison is fine with that.
So the real evaluation of Michigan and Harbaugh has begun. He can pick up a road win versus a top 10 team next weekend. And he's going to have to win that game against PSU too. A road win versus a ranked opponent is another thing he has to put on his resume and he can get two of them these last six games. While this was supposed to be a rebuilding year, expectations are that Harbaugh should be building a program that should be reloading and never rebuilding. That's Michigan. And the fact that we are the #2 team in the conference with all of the perceived turmoil just goes to show how the program is stronger than any of the pieces involved with it.
The numbers on Michigan Football vs. the Big Ten under Jim Harballer. Let this man do his job....
Michigan is the best football program in the Big Ten next to OSU under Jim Harballer and the numbers prove it. And if you disagree with the numbers somehow, then at worst we are in a three way tie for the second best. Austin Fox did a look at how UM compared to the rest of the league in the...
michigan.forums.rivals.com
But What is Coach affect? The College Football Matrix dude studies coach effect. I haven't subscribed or looked into the real numbers he puts out, but I know Harbaugh's coach effect is horrible. What coach effect measures is the presumed quality of a coach based on two things. 1. How do they do in games when their recruiting rankings are compared to the other team? So if Michigan has top 10 recruiting classes every year and they lose to a team that recruits in the 30s, that's a positive coach effect for the theoretically less talented team, and a negative coach effect for the more talented team. (Look, I know that attrition and the portal and a lot of things make this an imperfect thing, but on its face, it makes sense). 2. The second coach effect measure is how a team performs based on whether it is favored in a game or the underdog. Do you win the games you're supposed to win? Do you lose games you're favored in? Do you win games you're not favored to win? If your program is a better recruiter and gets upset often, then there is an argument that you're being outcoached in games. And if you never upset a team that recruits better than you, then that's a commentary too.
Spencer Hall on harbaugh:
"LITTLE HARBAUGH: Here’s the part that amazed me! Since Harbaugh arrived in 2015, his program is the only one in all of FBS with zero upset victories. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-10 as underdogs. Even Bama has an upset win in that span, and Bama’s only been an underdog once.
So while the original premise of my other post is "Let the man do his job." There's a converse argument that He's won game's he was favored to win. Lost some games he was favored to win. And never delivered an upset victory until Wisconsin 2021 who is a sub .500 conference team so far this year.
I personally think he is figuring it out but here is a difference when comparing Michigan to other B10 teams. I don't think Wisconsin or Iowa is operating with any intention of trying to beat Ohio State. There is a difference between building a program that is best suited to navigate your schedule and one that really intends to be great. I believe Wisconsin plays a style meant to beat up on the west division while being aware of the weather they play in and they have no worries about whether they ever beat OSU. They play to their identity and put running backs and OLs into the NFL but Brooks Bollinger is the only QB they have had in the league (Wilson does not count IMO). They protect their below average QBs with their run game and defense. That'll win them the west and get them to a loss in Indy. And Madison is fine with that.
So the real evaluation of Michigan and Harbaugh has begun. He can pick up a road win versus a top 10 team next weekend. And he's going to have to win that game against PSU too. A road win versus a ranked opponent is another thing he has to put on his resume and he can get two of them these last six games. While this was supposed to be a rebuilding year, expectations are that Harbaugh should be building a program that should be reloading and never rebuilding. That's Michigan. And the fact that we are the #2 team in the conference with all of the perceived turmoil just goes to show how the program is stronger than any of the pieces involved with it.
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