This Oklahoma/Texas to the SEC talk coupled with recent developments such as NIL, the recent NCAA rulings, the portal and free transfers has gotten me to thinking a bit about what this all means with respect to who will be the winners/losers when it comes to conference realignment and the like.
Up until this point I have been sort of looking at each issue independently, and from a Michigan perspective. What helps Michigan and what hurts Michigan, at least in terms of becoming a national player? From that relatively narrow prism I see the following:
1. NIL: will obviously help Michigan given our brand appeal. To what extent depends on the appetite of our alumni to legally funnel cash to players.
2. Portal: A net slight negative in that we will have a hard time getting many transfer athletes into school. The positive element is with net transfers out it should ensure that we have sufficient free scholarships to regularly sign large freshman classes. The negative is that freshmen are unproven and take time to develop. Transfers, on the other hand, are proven and can often contribute from day one.
3. Conference realignment/Scheduling: I have always taken the view that the easier Michigan’s schedule is the better our chances of making the playoffs. For example, take a look at Notre Dame. During the Harbaugh era they have been to the playoffs a couple of times despite having a program no stronger than Michigan’s. That is due to easier scheduling and not having that roadblock called Ohio State in their path. As such, the Big Ten not adding teams such as Texas, Oklahoma and/or Notre Dame is a win, from the narrow short-term Michigan perspective of having an easier pathway to the playoffs.
Things, however, are rapidly changing and we need to look at how all of these moving pieces will impact not just Michigan, but the entire college football landscape, not in the short-term but in the long-term. From this broader perspective, I am about to sing a different tune. And, frankly, as a college football traditionalist, it is one that I don’t really care much to sing, nor listen to, but it will be our new reality going forward.
The emerging dystopian college football landscape will be one defined by a Darwinian survival of the fittest scramble in which all is defined by two intertwined parameters- money and winning. And, make no mistake about it, all else that people have held true and dear to their hearts about college football is in danger of falling to the wayside, if it had not already, including:
- Conference loyalties
- Traditional rivalries
- The Bowl system
- Players not turning pro until after 3 years
- Starters at P5 schools not transferring. Hello free agency
- Academic standards
- Amateurism (or at least the notion of such)
- Much of the live pomp and pageantry that surrounds the games (eg marching band)
- Large scholarship rosters
- Non-revenue sports, especially for men
- Athletic departments serving the interests of the student body
What really got me to thinking about all this was the talk of schools like Michigan and Ohio State possibly joining the SEC. Talk about turning things upside down. Not really a good fit, in so many ways. At least at first glance. But such a move is not about joining the SEC or not. The SEC is not playing checkers here. They are playing chess. This is about using their platform, which already has the strongest grouping of teams in college football, to create a national college football super conference. By landing Texas and Oklahoma, they would put themselves in a natural position of power to then go out and slowly attract the top teams in nearby regions, followed by the entire nation. Why would all these national powers create their own, new, super conference, when the SEC is already there as a viable platform for them to join? If this strategy is successful. There could be just one super conference of 25-30 teams. The elites of college football, the biggest winners and the cash cows. All the other current P5 teams would he playing for scraps. Sort of existing in some sort of second tier grey zone between the new SEC, which would of course be rebranded to reflect its nationally elite status (Super Elite Conference?). and the Group of 5 schools. In fact, eventually the college football playoff system could be trashed with the true national champion simply viewed as the winner of the SEC.
Now, if this were to occur the traditional model of college football would become a legacy of ashes. Not only will second-tier Big 10, Big 12, pac 10 and ACC teams suffer, but I would be quite worried if I were a second tier SEC team as well-Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina and the like. It will all be about winning and making money. Conference schools that cannot pull their weight will be pushed out.
One should also note that this is not a mere SEC power grab within some sort of time warp. It is, to the contrary, immaculate timing since:
1. The SEC is currently in a position of power.
2. NIL could change that, especially for schools like Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas and USC. SEC is scared Sh!tless that the deeper alumni pockets of those schools could negate the cash advantage that the SEC enjoyed via the bag man route.
3. NIL will end up hurting the lesser P5 schools who simply will not have the cash to compete with the big boys.
4. Portal and free transfers (ie free agency) will only help the stronger get stronger.
5. Expected playoff expansion to 12 will primarily benefit non-SEC schools who have been frozen out of the playoffs, and blue-blood programs like Michigan, Penn State, Texas and USC who now have a chance to re-enter the national conversation.
So the SEC is striking when the iron is hot.
The question is, if Michigan has the chance to join them, should they? And remember, we are not talking about the current SEC, but pretty much the one and only super conference. Consolidation won’t end at going from five to four to three conferences. It will end with one conference, a super conference where all the schools are producing revenues more in line with Michigan’s than Purdue’s. At the end of the day, money talks. The question is whether by going down that path will many of us not even care anymore?
Up until this point I have been sort of looking at each issue independently, and from a Michigan perspective. What helps Michigan and what hurts Michigan, at least in terms of becoming a national player? From that relatively narrow prism I see the following:
1. NIL: will obviously help Michigan given our brand appeal. To what extent depends on the appetite of our alumni to legally funnel cash to players.
2. Portal: A net slight negative in that we will have a hard time getting many transfer athletes into school. The positive element is with net transfers out it should ensure that we have sufficient free scholarships to regularly sign large freshman classes. The negative is that freshmen are unproven and take time to develop. Transfers, on the other hand, are proven and can often contribute from day one.
3. Conference realignment/Scheduling: I have always taken the view that the easier Michigan’s schedule is the better our chances of making the playoffs. For example, take a look at Notre Dame. During the Harbaugh era they have been to the playoffs a couple of times despite having a program no stronger than Michigan’s. That is due to easier scheduling and not having that roadblock called Ohio State in their path. As such, the Big Ten not adding teams such as Texas, Oklahoma and/or Notre Dame is a win, from the narrow short-term Michigan perspective of having an easier pathway to the playoffs.
Things, however, are rapidly changing and we need to look at how all of these moving pieces will impact not just Michigan, but the entire college football landscape, not in the short-term but in the long-term. From this broader perspective, I am about to sing a different tune. And, frankly, as a college football traditionalist, it is one that I don’t really care much to sing, nor listen to, but it will be our new reality going forward.
The emerging dystopian college football landscape will be one defined by a Darwinian survival of the fittest scramble in which all is defined by two intertwined parameters- money and winning. And, make no mistake about it, all else that people have held true and dear to their hearts about college football is in danger of falling to the wayside, if it had not already, including:
- Conference loyalties
- Traditional rivalries
- The Bowl system
- Players not turning pro until after 3 years
- Starters at P5 schools not transferring. Hello free agency
- Academic standards
- Amateurism (or at least the notion of such)
- Much of the live pomp and pageantry that surrounds the games (eg marching band)
- Large scholarship rosters
- Non-revenue sports, especially for men
- Athletic departments serving the interests of the student body
What really got me to thinking about all this was the talk of schools like Michigan and Ohio State possibly joining the SEC. Talk about turning things upside down. Not really a good fit, in so many ways. At least at first glance. But such a move is not about joining the SEC or not. The SEC is not playing checkers here. They are playing chess. This is about using their platform, which already has the strongest grouping of teams in college football, to create a national college football super conference. By landing Texas and Oklahoma, they would put themselves in a natural position of power to then go out and slowly attract the top teams in nearby regions, followed by the entire nation. Why would all these national powers create their own, new, super conference, when the SEC is already there as a viable platform for them to join? If this strategy is successful. There could be just one super conference of 25-30 teams. The elites of college football, the biggest winners and the cash cows. All the other current P5 teams would he playing for scraps. Sort of existing in some sort of second tier grey zone between the new SEC, which would of course be rebranded to reflect its nationally elite status (Super Elite Conference?). and the Group of 5 schools. In fact, eventually the college football playoff system could be trashed with the true national champion simply viewed as the winner of the SEC.
Now, if this were to occur the traditional model of college football would become a legacy of ashes. Not only will second-tier Big 10, Big 12, pac 10 and ACC teams suffer, but I would be quite worried if I were a second tier SEC team as well-Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina and the like. It will all be about winning and making money. Conference schools that cannot pull their weight will be pushed out.
One should also note that this is not a mere SEC power grab within some sort of time warp. It is, to the contrary, immaculate timing since:
1. The SEC is currently in a position of power.
2. NIL could change that, especially for schools like Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas and USC. SEC is scared Sh!tless that the deeper alumni pockets of those schools could negate the cash advantage that the SEC enjoyed via the bag man route.
3. NIL will end up hurting the lesser P5 schools who simply will not have the cash to compete with the big boys.
4. Portal and free transfers (ie free agency) will only help the stronger get stronger.
5. Expected playoff expansion to 12 will primarily benefit non-SEC schools who have been frozen out of the playoffs, and blue-blood programs like Michigan, Penn State, Texas and USC who now have a chance to re-enter the national conversation.
So the SEC is striking when the iron is hot.
The question is, if Michigan has the chance to join them, should they? And remember, we are not talking about the current SEC, but pretty much the one and only super conference. Consolidation won’t end at going from five to four to three conferences. It will end with one conference, a super conference where all the schools are producing revenues more in line with Michigan’s than Purdue’s. At the end of the day, money talks. The question is whether by going down that path will many of us not even care anymore?
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