11 teams have a chance to finish with 1 loss or less and would be considered in the CFP hunt as of today. These 11 teams are all in the top 12.
If we lump them, we have:
It’s going to be tough for a nonconference champion to make it in to the CFP this year. The only team that people seem to think would have a shot is a 12-1 Georgia team that loses a close SEC championship game to Alabama.
I think Wake Forest (ACC) is out.
I think the SEC champion is guaranteed a spot.
The B10 has 3 hopefuls and all have a loss. Amongst the 3 B10 hopefuls, there are 3 big games that will determine if the conference can send a team to the CFP.
A 12-1 B10 champ, almost certainly, goes.
OSU over Oregon would be a tough argument in the Gaylord Texan if both were 1-loss conference champions and they were competing for the final spot. For this scenario to happen, Cinci and/or OU would have to jump into the top 4.
OU has won 5/9 games by 7 or less but they have found new life after the QB change. An undefeated OU team goes. They still have to play Baylor and OSU in Bedlam. They may have to play OSU on back to back weekends (Bedlam and B12 championship game). But they are looking good. OU is the only B12 team with a CFP chance. I think they have to go 13-0 to get in. They can lose in Bedlam to OSU and beat them the following weekend in the big 12 championship. But they would be 12-1 in this scenario. I think they wouldn’t make it without several breaks in this scenario.
Cinci and ND are wildcards. ND always has a lot of appeal, but they would be a tough argument at 11-1 over a 12-0 Cincinnati team that they lost to.
Things are shaping up for Cinci to grab the 4 seed. They may need a break, however, even if they do run the table. If ND runs the table, the Cinci case is bolstered.
These 11 teams are quickly whittled down to:
Georgia and Bama control their own destiny for the SEC. MSU and OSU control their own destiny for the B10. Oregon and Oklahoma each control their own destiny. I don’t think a 13-0 Oklahoma team gets left out.
Potential “spot stealers” are:
Out
There is still lots of football to be played. This list will pare itself over the next few weeks.
Our boys are in it. We have to against Penn State and the following week against Maryland.
I’d rather be part of the conversation than on the outside looking in.
We have a LOT to play for.
Go Blue!
| RECORD | |
| 1. Georgia | 9-0 |
| 2. Alabama | 8-1 |
| 3. Oregon | 8-1 |
| 4. Ohio State | 8-1 |
| 5. Cincinnati | 9-0 |
| 6. Michigan | 8-1 |
| 7. Michigan State | 8-1 |
| 8. Oklahoma | 9-0 |
| 9. Notre Dame | 8-1 |
| 10. Oklahoma State | 8-1 |
| 11. Texas A&M | 7-2 |
| 12. Wake Forest | 8-1 |
If we lump them, we have:
- SEC: GA, Bama
- B10: MSU, OSU, UM
- P12: Oregon
- B12: OU, OSU
- ACC: Wake Forest
- Independent: ND
- Go5: Cinci
It’s going to be tough for a nonconference champion to make it in to the CFP this year. The only team that people seem to think would have a shot is a 12-1 Georgia team that loses a close SEC championship game to Alabama.
I think Wake Forest (ACC) is out.
I think the SEC champion is guaranteed a spot.
The B10 has 3 hopefuls and all have a loss. Amongst the 3 B10 hopefuls, there are 3 big games that will determine if the conference can send a team to the CFP.
- UM-MSU on Oct 30
- MSU-OSU on Nov 20
- UM-OSU on Nov 27
A 12-1 B10 champ, almost certainly, goes.
OSU over Oregon would be a tough argument in the Gaylord Texan if both were 1-loss conference champions and they were competing for the final spot. For this scenario to happen, Cinci and/or OU would have to jump into the top 4.
OU has won 5/9 games by 7 or less but they have found new life after the QB change. An undefeated OU team goes. They still have to play Baylor and OSU in Bedlam. They may have to play OSU on back to back weekends (Bedlam and B12 championship game). But they are looking good. OU is the only B12 team with a CFP chance. I think they have to go 13-0 to get in. They can lose in Bedlam to OSU and beat them the following weekend in the big 12 championship. But they would be 12-1 in this scenario. I think they wouldn’t make it without several breaks in this scenario.
Cinci and ND are wildcards. ND always has a lot of appeal, but they would be a tough argument at 11-1 over a 12-0 Cincinnati team that they lost to.
Things are shaping up for Cinci to grab the 4 seed. They may need a break, however, even if they do run the table. If ND runs the table, the Cinci case is bolstered.
These 11 teams are quickly whittled down to:
- SEC champ
- 12-1 Oregon
- 12-1 B10 champ
- 13-0 Oklahoma
Georgia and Bama control their own destiny for the SEC. MSU and OSU control their own destiny for the B10. Oregon and Oklahoma each control their own destiny. I don’t think a 13-0 Oklahoma team gets left out.
Potential “spot stealers” are:
- 12-1 Georgia
- 13-0 Cinci
Out
- Oklahoma State
- Wake Forest
- Notre Dame
- B10 East #2 team
- B10 East #3 team
There is still lots of football to be played. This list will pare itself over the next few weeks.
Our boys are in it. We have to against Penn State and the following week against Maryland.
I’d rather be part of the conversation than on the outside looking in.
We have a LOT to play for.
Go Blue!
