Stepping away from Michigan for a moment, how do you guys feel about the ~5 year outlook for other Big Ten programs.
As a hoops fan, I feel a little validated predicting that Iowa would rise-up to the upper tier in a similar thread. What do you guys say think about the football landscape? My one-liner is that the quality of coaching is pretty strong across the board, and the extra cash flow might help as well. I think that both the top and bottom of the conference will have a little extra strength compared to the last decade - but here's how I see it shaking out by program.
Listing the programs as I perceive them today, with up/down/steady in parenthesis.
As a hoops fan, I feel a little validated predicting that Iowa would rise-up to the upper tier in a similar thread. What do you guys say think about the football landscape? My one-liner is that the quality of coaching is pretty strong across the board, and the extra cash flow might help as well. I think that both the top and bottom of the conference will have a little extra strength compared to the last decade - but here's how I see it shaking out by program.
Listing the programs as I perceive them today, with up/down/steady in parenthesis.
- Ohio State (steady) - nowhere to go but down, but no reason to believe they'll slip
- Michigan (steady) - controversial maybe, homer-ish maybe; but I have us above Wisconsin because I think we're more likely to win a national championship, already. Above Penn State because I just think we're further along, despite the championship.
- Wisconsin (steady) - as consistent as they come, and developing a nice little tradition. Strong head coach, and they recruit to their strength.
- Penn State (down) - recruiting as the #3 program, but call me a hater. I don't believe Franklin is an elite coach, and I think he'll always lose a few games he shouldn't as the coaching quality improves in the conference.
- Iowa (down) - Steady and consistently respectable. Will be a team to respect on the schedule, but will continue to do what they've done under Ferentz. And it might look a little worse considering what I think other programs will be able to put on the field to compete.
- Nebraska (up) - I like Mike Riley as a coach, and what he's been able to do with recruiting. I think they'll win the West every few years.
- Northwestern (steady) - Big fan of Fitzgerald, but I think Northwestern inherently has a ceiling that's a little harder to overcome on the gridiron than the hardwood. I see them as as on par with Iowa but with the perception that they're "almost there" as opposed to "underachieving."
- Michigan State (down) - Dantonio has proved his worth as a developer of talent (weight room accusations aside). But he's going to have a steep challenge this season with a competitive conference, and a depleted roster from a team that finished 3-9 last year to begin with. This season is as important as Michigan Basketball following their 16-16 season. You can lose program momentum, fast - and MSU has way more obstacles than simple poor performance. Michigan is back, and the rest of the conference has stronger headmen to compete with on and off the field. If they don't win at least 7-8 games this season, their ship will sink.
- Maryland (up) - I think highly of Durkin and he's in a talent hotbed (comparatively). If he can continue to mine it, he'll be successful. Will be hard to finish consistently higher than #4 though.
- Indiana (down) - Don't know what to think here. They seem to have some nice players, but have lost some objectively great coaches and replaced them with...
- Minnesota (up) - I'll buy PJ Fleck's ability to infuse enthusiasm. And I think he can get some decent talent up to Minneapolis. Nice city, new stadium. Wide open Big Ten West.
- Illinois (down) - Lovie Smith has a decent resume, but I don't quite buy him. Illinois is a bit of a stale program, and Lovie gives me a Charlie Weis vibe of never being quite as good as his NFL resume.
- Purdue (up) - I believe that Jeff Brohm is the right coach for Purdue. A unique offense predicated on something that Purdue has done historically well (air-it-out, gunslinger QBs). Might take a while, so I hope that the U is patient; and they better hope that Brohm doesn't leap for a greener pasture if it comes up
- Rutgers (steady) - Ash may be a good coach, but these guys are going to have a tough time keeping up in the Big Ten arms race. And if they continue to lose recruits to Princeton.
