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Big Picture Football Thoughts . . .

LosAngelesWolverine

Michigan Man
Jan 9, 2002
23,097
26,712
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When we hired Jim, based on what I saw from his Stanford and 49er teams, I anticipated having a dominant running game and really good quarterback play. And a very strong defense. I also figured Harbaugh would be able to recruit better skill position talent than he did at Stanford, and more athletic defensive players. Given the manner in which Nick Saban beat Urban Meyer when he coached Florida (running game, defense), I thought Jim would be able to do the same.

With a few other potential exceptions (2019 ND, 2016 and 2018 PSU, 2018 Wisconsin), the game against Washington was the best run blocking I’ve seen from our offensive line under Harbaugh, period, against a good defense. He seemed to really channel his inner Greg Roman. Huge caveat, of course: there’s a long way to go before we can confirm Washington is a good defense. But they seem to be so far.

Can this style of play succeed? First, it depends on your definition of success. Can we get back to beating PSU and Wisconsin? I think so. We’ll learn a lot about both teams in the weeks to come. PSU hosts Auburn this weekend. Wisconsin plays ND at Soldier Field in two weeks. Are those two teams as stout defensively as they looked in week one, or was it the product of playing two average offenses? I think some of both.

Can we beat OSU with this style of play? Oddly enough, maybe we can this year unless they get their act together (which, it seems, they always do when they play us). Their run defense is porous.

I do think, though, that if your strategy for winning is “run the ball and stop the run,” the second part of that phrase is very important. And so is stopping the pass. I’m not sure this team will have an elite enough defense to win games like this all year. I’d be very surprised if we don’t need some strong QB play to win some of these games.

Now, going forward, can the defense become elite? The scheme seems to be very good - of course it’s still early. I do think our corners, while better protected, have still shown some warts. And we’ll be losing Hutch and most likely Dax Hill after this year - two elite guys to replace.

But it seems like there’s been an infusion of defensive talent too. Colson at LB, Jenkins, Rooks, McGregor and Benny up front, and of course Smith has several years left, and Hinton could easily play two more years as well.

The key, I think, will be at corner and safety. If you want to slow down OSU, you need multiple talented corners. It goes without saying adding a guy like Domani Jackson would be absolutely huge.

Can you win national championships with Harbaugh’s preferred style of offense, assuming you also have a great defense?

I have my doubts. Saban won his first title at Alabama in 2009, beating Texas 37-21. Since then, the team winning the national championship has scored the following amount of points in the title game: 22, 21, 42, 34, 42, 45, 35, 26, 44, 42, and 52. That trend does not favor a ground and pound offense with a great defense. And the winning QBs of the past five title games have been Watson, Tua, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Mac Jones - all high first round picks. Even Nick Saban has pretty famously converted his style to one favoring an explosive passing game - the same Nick Saban whose Alabama program has churned out running backs like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Derrick Henry, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris. So . . .

Even with a dominant defense and great running game, I think we’ll need major contributions from guys like JJ McCarthy, Dante Moore (hopefully), and others (CJ Carr?) to compete for national titles, even if Harbaugh gets this thing completely turned around.

But it’s also a multi-step process. Getting physical play from the OL. Building an elite defense. Getting great leadership from the QB position. Jim will (rightfully) force JJ to earn the job, and a huge part of that will be learning the offense, being accurate, making the right reads, and limiting turnovers.

I’ll say 9-3 this year, followed by a real shot at beating OSU next year if JJ starts, which I think will probably happen.

By the way, two further observations:

1. We’ve been lamenting the lack of a “home run” running back for several years now. Well, in two games, Corum has an 89 yard kick return and a 67 yard TD. I think we’ve found our guy.

2. I hate to say it, but I think MSU might be good. They’re playing on the road this weekend against what seems to be a bad and wildly overrated Miami team. Win that one (I think they will), and they’ll have some real confidence. But I don’t care if they’re good, that’s still a must win game.
 
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