I’ll start with just a few specific points on the Orange Bowl:
In 2016 we rushed 574 times for 2,768 yards (4.8 ypc) and 41 TD’s. That included 119 yards on 41 attempts vs UCF (2.9 ypc), 98 yards on 35 attempts (2.8 ypc) vs Iowa, 91 yards on 43 attempts (2.1 ypc) vs OSU, and 89 yards on 36 attempts (2.5 ypc) vs FSU.
Of course, there are some other mitigating factors that should be considered. Hopefully this isn’t viewed as revisionist history, but in 2014 we were behind…a lot…and that helped our statistics mask how poor our running game actually was (28 attempts vs Minnesota, 31 vs PSU, 26 vs MSU). When you’re way behind you just don’t bother running anymore.
2015 was a little different as we actually played one more game but saw our attempts increase by about 3 rushes per game, due mostly to playing in closer games. Those rushing attempts late in games against decent teams when we were trying to burn clock no doubt reduced our ypc average on the season and I don’t think I’d be alone in saying that, although the ypc decreased, the rushing offense actually showed some strides of improvement last season (although we relied on Rudock to set up the offense). 2016 showed obvious improvement in terms of volume and production…574 attempts…41 TD’s…4.8 ypc.
Also worth analyzing, in 2014 we were sacked 29 times on 326 pass attempts (once every 11 attempts…that’s…a lot), in 2015 that number improved to 18 sacks in 415 attempts (once every 23 attempts). That number fell back in 2016 to 22 sacks allowed in 370 attempts (once every 17 attempts). I’d attribute this season’s regression at least partly to the difference in pocket presence between a savvy 5th year SR QB in Jake Rudock and a 1st year starter in Wilson Speight, but still, 2016’s sack numbers represent a 55% improvement over 2014.
So what does all this data suggest? Well, most obvious, we couldn’t run the ball or protect the QB before Drevno got here. Even average teams shut down our running game in 2014 and we allowed a sack every 11 pass attempts, which is absurd.
In 2015 we faced a lot of the same problems as decent teams slowed up our rushing offense, but because of that we shifted focus to become a passing team (5 more pass attempts per game) and we protected our QB at a very high rate. We identified a weakness (RB’s and run blocking) but in order to play to our strength (experienced QB) we needed to be able to protect him, and we improved dramatically in that sense.
In 2016 we brought back pretty much the same characters only without our best lineman and our experienced QB; the 2015 formula wasn’t going to work. And we evolved; 5 fewer passes per game and 7 more rushing attempts. In terms of rushing offense, the highs were certainly higher, and the lows were actually higher as well. We were held to fewer than 80 rushing yards 3 times in 2015 while that never happened once in 2016. I’m not saying we were good, or even decent, but the improvement is undeniable.
Taking all of this into account, I think Drevno got all the juice there was to be squeezed out of this OL. Two years ago we couldn’t run against anyone that didn’t play in the MAC or the Sunbelt. Last year we couldn’t run against teams in the upper echelon, and this year we couldn’t run on the elite run defenses we faced. Its little consolation, but were able to run over college level DL’s but we didn’t really stand a chance against NFL caliber defensive lineman. It reminded me somewhat of the 1991 OL…some good college players there, but just not athletic enough to hold up against the elite (to be fair though, that 1991 OL was dominant in a way this OL never came close to attaining).
I wasn’t really sure how I felt about Drevno until I broke down the numbers and applied some context to it. Overall, he wasn’t able to push these guys to extreme heights, but you can see the improvement in technique and efficiency. He took what he had and made them better. Did we ever really expect that the 2016 OL, which started 3 players from the 2013 team that rushed for -51 yards against MSU, could be transformed into an elite unit? Perhaps we set the bar too high for Drevno, but I’m still on board with him.
- Dalvin Cook is really, really good. We all knew that going into the game but he was absolutely the difference. Take him off FSU and UM blows them out, even with the offense that we fielded. I was surprised that we never quite fixed the wheel route out of the backfield this season. Everybody isolated our LB’s in coverage and had success there, with Cook’s 50 yard reception being the explanation point in that disastrous first quarter.
- I’m not sure that the 92 yard TD was Thomas’s fault. I know Brown let him have it on the sideline, but I think it was for not getting a check to Lewis before the snap. Obviously that’s part of Thomas’s job so I guess one way or the other it’s his fault, but watching the replay I don’t know how that deep half could’ve been his responsibility. Looked to me like Lewis should’ve stayed with him rather than Thomas covering up over the top.
- I grew to become comfortable with Wilton Speight this season. I thought he showed some tangible progress throughout the season; he was shaky against Colorado and one of the main reasons we lost to Iowa, but he also had some really solid games and was one of the main reasons we were in position to beat OSU. That being said, I was bitterly disappointed in his performance Friday night. Yes he was under immense pressure, but guess what? That’s why guys like Wilton Speight get to take girls that are way out of their league to the football banquet. That’s why they win Heisman Trophy’s and that’s why they’re drafted in the top 5. You’re the QB, so stop throwing off your back foot, step into the throw, take the hit and deliver an accurate pass. Comes with the job.
- I’ve read some people openly question Drevno and his effectiveness as the OL coach. In 2014 we rushed 421 times for 1,961 yards (4.66 ypc) and 17 TD’s; our 4 poorest rushing performances included 100 yards on 35 carries vs ND (2.86 ypc), 118 yards on 36 attempts vs Utah (3.4 ypc), 83 yards on 28 attempts vs Minnesota (2.96 ypc), and 61 yards on 26 attempts vs. MSU (2.35 ypc). All 4 games resulted in losses.
In 2016 we rushed 574 times for 2,768 yards (4.8 ypc) and 41 TD’s. That included 119 yards on 41 attempts vs UCF (2.9 ypc), 98 yards on 35 attempts (2.8 ypc) vs Iowa, 91 yards on 43 attempts (2.1 ypc) vs OSU, and 89 yards on 36 attempts (2.5 ypc) vs FSU.
Of course, there are some other mitigating factors that should be considered. Hopefully this isn’t viewed as revisionist history, but in 2014 we were behind…a lot…and that helped our statistics mask how poor our running game actually was (28 attempts vs Minnesota, 31 vs PSU, 26 vs MSU). When you’re way behind you just don’t bother running anymore.
2015 was a little different as we actually played one more game but saw our attempts increase by about 3 rushes per game, due mostly to playing in closer games. Those rushing attempts late in games against decent teams when we were trying to burn clock no doubt reduced our ypc average on the season and I don’t think I’d be alone in saying that, although the ypc decreased, the rushing offense actually showed some strides of improvement last season (although we relied on Rudock to set up the offense). 2016 showed obvious improvement in terms of volume and production…574 attempts…41 TD’s…4.8 ypc.
Also worth analyzing, in 2014 we were sacked 29 times on 326 pass attempts (once every 11 attempts…that’s…a lot), in 2015 that number improved to 18 sacks in 415 attempts (once every 23 attempts). That number fell back in 2016 to 22 sacks allowed in 370 attempts (once every 17 attempts). I’d attribute this season’s regression at least partly to the difference in pocket presence between a savvy 5th year SR QB in Jake Rudock and a 1st year starter in Wilson Speight, but still, 2016’s sack numbers represent a 55% improvement over 2014.
So what does all this data suggest? Well, most obvious, we couldn’t run the ball or protect the QB before Drevno got here. Even average teams shut down our running game in 2014 and we allowed a sack every 11 pass attempts, which is absurd.
In 2015 we faced a lot of the same problems as decent teams slowed up our rushing offense, but because of that we shifted focus to become a passing team (5 more pass attempts per game) and we protected our QB at a very high rate. We identified a weakness (RB’s and run blocking) but in order to play to our strength (experienced QB) we needed to be able to protect him, and we improved dramatically in that sense.
In 2016 we brought back pretty much the same characters only without our best lineman and our experienced QB; the 2015 formula wasn’t going to work. And we evolved; 5 fewer passes per game and 7 more rushing attempts. In terms of rushing offense, the highs were certainly higher, and the lows were actually higher as well. We were held to fewer than 80 rushing yards 3 times in 2015 while that never happened once in 2016. I’m not saying we were good, or even decent, but the improvement is undeniable.
Taking all of this into account, I think Drevno got all the juice there was to be squeezed out of this OL. Two years ago we couldn’t run against anyone that didn’t play in the MAC or the Sunbelt. Last year we couldn’t run against teams in the upper echelon, and this year we couldn’t run on the elite run defenses we faced. Its little consolation, but were able to run over college level DL’s but we didn’t really stand a chance against NFL caliber defensive lineman. It reminded me somewhat of the 1991 OL…some good college players there, but just not athletic enough to hold up against the elite (to be fair though, that 1991 OL was dominant in a way this OL never came close to attaining).
I wasn’t really sure how I felt about Drevno until I broke down the numbers and applied some context to it. Overall, he wasn’t able to push these guys to extreme heights, but you can see the improvement in technique and efficiency. He took what he had and made them better. Did we ever really expect that the 2016 OL, which started 3 players from the 2013 team that rushed for -51 yards against MSU, could be transformed into an elite unit? Perhaps we set the bar too high for Drevno, but I’m still on board with him.
- So how can the 2017 OL be better? Well, no matter how many practice reps you give Kyle Kalis or Eric Magnuson or Ben Braden, they’ll probably never be able to block Demarcus Walker, Mathew Thomas, Tyquan Lewis, Raekwon McMillon, or Jaleel Johnson. But Ben Bredeson and Michael Onwenu have the athleticism to where someday they may be able to handle those players; same with Grant Newsome before the injury. I think we’ll be better at all three interior spots next season, and those spots are the bedrock of your rushing offense. I haven’t seen enough of our other T’s to know who will be stepping in there, but Braden didn’t set the bar particularly high and Mags was pretty limited, though he learned to be effective. I doubt we start out where we left off, but I think our OL will have a much higher ceiling next season (and I’ll add that having a Sr C is huge).
- So how did we turn a potential playoff roster into a fringe top 10 season? If I had to summarize it, I would say that we simply lacked playmakers on offense. Jake Butt was the one matchup we could depend on throughout the season; nobody else took a step forward and that’s why we lost 3 games by a combined 5 points. There just weren’t any plus athletes on that side of the ball and it caught up to us when we couldn’t close out Iowa or OSU. And when we couldn’t block FSU, we didn’t have a Dalvin Cook to hand it too. We’re getting there…Black and DPJ sound like difference – making athletes, but it would be great to have a RB to get something that’s not there every once in a while. Not to mention that Crawford and McDoom look to have a little more wiggle and explosion than we’ve seen lately.
- I expect an open QB competition. I hope this doesn’t come across as too harsh, but Wilton left a lot to be desired Friday night. It’s one thing when a QB is struggling and having a rough night but keeps battling anyway, yet it’s another thing entirely when he’s repeatedly sailing the ball because he refuses to step into his throw in the face of pressure. I loved the way he hung in and gave us a chance against OSU, but yes, I’m questioning his toughness after he admitted to being rattled vs Colorado, played terribly at Iowa, and then spent Friday night ducking & rolling.
- I loved what Jed Fisch brought in 2015. Our passing game showed ingenuity and creativity that was for whatever reason lacking in 2016. Perhaps they scaled back complexities with a first year starting QB? Harbaugh’s an offensive coach, Drevno was the OC, and Jedd was woefully overqualified as a WR coach. Our rushing offense stayed familiar and I’m assuming that was Drevno’s baby, but the passing game seemed to stagnate and included too many difficult throws this season. I thought that last year we schemed so well that the coaches did a lot of Rudock’s work for him but Speight seemed to have to work harder for it this year. I thought Jed brought a lot to the table, but we probably won’t know his true contributions until next season.
- I think 2017 will be the last time under Harbaugh that we’ll go into a season where anything short of a division championship will be a disappointment. The 2017 version carries a lot of promise…guys like Hurst, Gary, and McCray should be All B10 players…I’m excited about Winovich, Bush, Lavert Hill, and Hudson. I can’t wait to see the interior of OL, and if Drake Harris can make a leap and hold off DPJ, Crawford, McDoom, and Black. Who’s going to start between Asisi, Wheatley, and Bunting? The talent is there, although unproven, but the early schedule is favorable. I expect we’ll go into PSU 7 – 0, but with Wisconsin and OSU to follow, that 7 – 0 could quickly unravel to 9 – 3. If the pups grow up 2017 could be the first in a long line of contending teams. Even if they’re not, 2018 should be ready to start that trend.
- I know this season ended with a thud, but there’s reason to believe that this season was no pinnacle and certainly no reason to be alarmed for the future. I say this because we’re about to stack one elite recruiting class on top of another. We recruited decent skill position players in terms of *’s (2 – 4* WR’s, 4 – 3* WR’s, 1 – 3* QB, 1 – 4* QB, 1 – 3* RB, 1 – 5* RB), but there were serious red flags on Derrick Green and Shane Morris, who were the two highest rated skill players between those two classes. We got caught without enough high end talent and depth that breads competition and healthy attrition; that’s changing. Crawford and McDoom are about to be pushed by Black, DPJ, Hawkins and Collins (hopefully as are Chris Evans and Kareem Walker), same with David Long and Lavert Hill, and Mbem-Bosse and Uche, and Brandon Peters. We had a chance to win one this season before Harbaugh ever really actually got started; it didn’t happen, but this team will be a tidal wave by the time 2018 comes and that’s without conceding anything in 2017.
