A possible allocation of NIL funds
Sort of a pseudo-intellectual (ie pure guesswork!!) analysis of how funds could be distributed to Michigan players under a base pay and one more year model. These figures do not include non-collective third party payments that certain players will be receiving that are not tied to one more year, the portal or a base pay for team members.
One More Year (1MY)
*Assuming Blake Corum, Kris Jenkins, Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan leaving for NFL.
JJ McCarthy-$3,500,000
QB: without a doubt the most important 1MY target. True difference-maker who cannot be replaced in the portal. His return would also be a magnet to get others to return as we would again be serious contenders. Depth of QBs in this NFL draft may help Michigan here as he would likely not be turning down early first round money in order to return.
Donovan Edwards-$400,000
Kalel Mullings-$200,000
RB: Good chance both return. Edwards did not have the year that was expected. That being said, he may be better suited for the NFL and, as a RB, the window to make an impact is a very small one. Mullings has a chance to he the go-to guy next season. If only one or neither return, their should be viable replacement options in the portal. Perhaps Etienne or Darius Taylor?
Roman Wilson-$400,000
AJ Barner-$200,000
Receivers: Seems as though Roman may be gone. But worth a shot. Should be several viable candidates in the portal. Would be nice to have Barner back but we have young talent waiting in the wings. We always seem to have tight ends.
Trente Jones, Myles Hinton, Kasen Barnhart, Drake Nugent-Pool of $450,000
OL: Not sure if any of the above are guaranteed NFLers. Younger kids such as Gio and Gentry will be ready to take the next step and have higher ceilings. And there is always the portal. So Michigan will not need to throw around a lot of cash to get at least my target of two of the above to return.
Braeden McGregor, Jaylen Harrell-Pool of $250,000
DE: Different types of edge prospects. Would like to see one of the two return. Replaceable with returnees and portal.
Junior Colson-$750,000
LB: Nice ceiling. Could benefit from another year in the program. After JJ he may be the toughest player on the list to replace.
Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Quinten Johmson-Pool of $ 500,000
Safeties: Need to have at least one return. Sabb and Berry ready to take the next step but we need more numbers. Moore may have one foot out the door. Paige may be best value here.
Assumed NIL funds available for football (This a very optimistic figure that probably does not reflect reality but aligns with the amount that Ryan Day said that Ohio State needed-which should be our benchmark). And since we don’t pay high school recruits this is all going to team members and transfers: $13 million per year
Total initial NIL funds allocated to One More Year: $6.65 million
Expected actual payout of NIL funds to One More Year: $5.6 million (much lower if JJ leaves)
NIL funds allocated to $40,00 base play for 120 roster players: $4.8 million
Total NIL to current players (base plus actual 1MY payouts): $10.4 million
NIL funds allocated to Portal: $2.6 million
Several factors go into assessing the NIL market value of 1MY targets:
1. What the target would likely be earning if he went to the NFL.
Under the NFL rookie wage scale, all first round picks will sign four-year deals, with the team having an option to extend the deal to a fifth year. After the first pick the salaries will drop consistently and the 31st pick in the first round will be able to sign a deal worth around $12.75 million.
All first round contracts are fully guaranteed. That is not the case for later rounds. In other words a later round draft pick could sign a multi-million dollar contract but if he is cut he likely gets little to nothing. So players not projected to be drafted in the first round need to appreciate that the potential for them to make more than the NFL minimum yearly salary of $750,000 is there, but they will need to make the team.
In the second round of the Draft, four year contracts will be worth between $6 million and $12 million. The first pick in the third round can sign a deal worth $6.25 million while the last pick in the third will have to settle for a $5.4 million deal.
Fourth rounders will get between $4.5 million and $5.4 million. Fifth rounders will all get more than $4 million and less than $5 million. The first pick in the sixth round will get $4.1 million and the last pick in the sixth (No. 217) will get $3.98 million. Slightly more than $3.925 million that Mr. Irrelevant, pick No. 259, will make.
2. Longevity. NFL careers are quickly perishable, especially for certain positions such as RB. An extra year or three (with free covid year) in college will delay the start of their NFL careers while their bodies keep on taking a licking and risking injury. One of the reasons why it may be time for a Blake Corum to move on to the NFL.
3. Is the player actually ready to leave for the NFL, or would an extra year in development be in his best interest irrespective of NIL?
4. The player’s replacement factor. How easily can the player’s production be replaced by returning players or through the portal/recruiting?
5. Some players just love the college experience and would return with no NIL. Team culture also plays a huge role here.
6. How good will the team be in 2024 and are there goals that the players have yet to reach? This is critical. Last year’s 1MY targets had the perfect mix. Part of a great team that failed in the playoffs plus a chance for a strong core to return in 2023 and hopefully win it all. We still don’t know how 2023 will end. Winning it all could be a two-edged sword. By reaching their team goals players would be more open to moving to the NFL. And if Michigan fails? I think that JJ is the key. If he returns Michigan will be much stronger next season and he would be a magnet for others to return/transfer in.
7. The final wild card in this mix is who will be coaching Michigan next season. At least there is a certain degree of certainty that if it is not Jim it will be his known and trusted agent, and Michigan legend, Moore.
Sort of a pseudo-intellectual (ie pure guesswork!!) analysis of how funds could be distributed to Michigan players under a base pay and one more year model. These figures do not include non-collective third party payments that certain players will be receiving that are not tied to one more year, the portal or a base pay for team members.
One More Year (1MY)
*Assuming Blake Corum, Kris Jenkins, Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan leaving for NFL.
JJ McCarthy-$3,500,000
QB: without a doubt the most important 1MY target. True difference-maker who cannot be replaced in the portal. His return would also be a magnet to get others to return as we would again be serious contenders. Depth of QBs in this NFL draft may help Michigan here as he would likely not be turning down early first round money in order to return.
Donovan Edwards-$400,000
Kalel Mullings-$200,000
RB: Good chance both return. Edwards did not have the year that was expected. That being said, he may be better suited for the NFL and, as a RB, the window to make an impact is a very small one. Mullings has a chance to he the go-to guy next season. If only one or neither return, their should be viable replacement options in the portal. Perhaps Etienne or Darius Taylor?
Roman Wilson-$400,000
AJ Barner-$200,000
Receivers: Seems as though Roman may be gone. But worth a shot. Should be several viable candidates in the portal. Would be nice to have Barner back but we have young talent waiting in the wings. We always seem to have tight ends.
Trente Jones, Myles Hinton, Kasen Barnhart, Drake Nugent-Pool of $450,000
OL: Not sure if any of the above are guaranteed NFLers. Younger kids such as Gio and Gentry will be ready to take the next step and have higher ceilings. And there is always the portal. So Michigan will not need to throw around a lot of cash to get at least my target of two of the above to return.
Braeden McGregor, Jaylen Harrell-Pool of $250,000
DE: Different types of edge prospects. Would like to see one of the two return. Replaceable with returnees and portal.
Junior Colson-$750,000
LB: Nice ceiling. Could benefit from another year in the program. After JJ he may be the toughest player on the list to replace.
Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Quinten Johmson-Pool of $ 500,000
Safeties: Need to have at least one return. Sabb and Berry ready to take the next step but we need more numbers. Moore may have one foot out the door. Paige may be best value here.
Assumed NIL funds available for football (This a very optimistic figure that probably does not reflect reality but aligns with the amount that Ryan Day said that Ohio State needed-which should be our benchmark). And since we don’t pay high school recruits this is all going to team members and transfers: $13 million per year
Total initial NIL funds allocated to One More Year: $6.65 million
Expected actual payout of NIL funds to One More Year: $5.6 million (much lower if JJ leaves)
NIL funds allocated to $40,00 base play for 120 roster players: $4.8 million
Total NIL to current players (base plus actual 1MY payouts): $10.4 million
NIL funds allocated to Portal: $2.6 million
Several factors go into assessing the NIL market value of 1MY targets:
1. What the target would likely be earning if he went to the NFL.
Under the NFL rookie wage scale, all first round picks will sign four-year deals, with the team having an option to extend the deal to a fifth year. After the first pick the salaries will drop consistently and the 31st pick in the first round will be able to sign a deal worth around $12.75 million.
All first round contracts are fully guaranteed. That is not the case for later rounds. In other words a later round draft pick could sign a multi-million dollar contract but if he is cut he likely gets little to nothing. So players not projected to be drafted in the first round need to appreciate that the potential for them to make more than the NFL minimum yearly salary of $750,000 is there, but they will need to make the team.
In the second round of the Draft, four year contracts will be worth between $6 million and $12 million. The first pick in the third round can sign a deal worth $6.25 million while the last pick in the third will have to settle for a $5.4 million deal.
Fourth rounders will get between $4.5 million and $5.4 million. Fifth rounders will all get more than $4 million and less than $5 million. The first pick in the sixth round will get $4.1 million and the last pick in the sixth (No. 217) will get $3.98 million. Slightly more than $3.925 million that Mr. Irrelevant, pick No. 259, will make.
2. Longevity. NFL careers are quickly perishable, especially for certain positions such as RB. An extra year or three (with free covid year) in college will delay the start of their NFL careers while their bodies keep on taking a licking and risking injury. One of the reasons why it may be time for a Blake Corum to move on to the NFL.
3. Is the player actually ready to leave for the NFL, or would an extra year in development be in his best interest irrespective of NIL?
4. The player’s replacement factor. How easily can the player’s production be replaced by returning players or through the portal/recruiting?
5. Some players just love the college experience and would return with no NIL. Team culture also plays a huge role here.
6. How good will the team be in 2024 and are there goals that the players have yet to reach? This is critical. Last year’s 1MY targets had the perfect mix. Part of a great team that failed in the playoffs plus a chance for a strong core to return in 2023 and hopefully win it all. We still don’t know how 2023 will end. Winning it all could be a two-edged sword. By reaching their team goals players would be more open to moving to the NFL. And if Michigan fails? I think that JJ is the key. If he returns Michigan will be much stronger next season and he would be a magnet for others to return/transfer in.
7. The final wild card in this mix is who will be coaching Michigan next season. At least there is a certain degree of certainty that if it is not Jim it will be his known and trusted agent, and Michigan legend, Moore.
