I've heard a lot of people mention that the B1G is in a good spot financially right now and so there should be no rush to expand. Everyone is happy making money and we're always going to have playoff access so what's the harm? I think that mindset accurately captures how the vast majority of B1G schools feel at this moment. Let's be honest. The Rutgers and Illinois and Indianas of the B1G like the situation right now. Under the current setup, they are in what is one of the two most lucrative TV conferences in the country, and they really don't have any desire or track record that they can compete at the highest level of the sport. In a world where the B1G stands pat, or adds a couple solid academic schools with unimpressive football resumes (say Kansas and Iowa State), nothing changes in their mind. They can still win 9-10 games in a good year, and maybe even sneak into a playoff spot.
The problem is in conference realignment the status quo is only an option if the top schools are happy with the status quo. And we all know there are two powers in the B1G whose brands dwarf the rest of the conference. Two schools who the SEC would undoubtedly add tomorrow if we wanted to come. Ohio State and Michigan. While Michigan's leadership may vacillate in terms of whether it wants to compete at the highest level, Ohio State will not accept any arrangement which permanently endangers its ability to compete for national titles, especially after the last ten year run under Meyer and Day. The problem with the status quo is it is going to directly hurt OSU's ability to win a national title. If the SEC is considered far and away the best league, the best players will all gravitate there, but especially in the South where OSU has made major inroads in the last ten years. Today, OSU has to beat one home state SEC school for the state's best players. Next year? It's Texas and Texas A&M, not to mention Oklahoma which basically is a Texas school in terms of recruiting.
If OSU's recruiting starts to take a hit, it's boosters and decision makers aren't going to wait ten years to see how it plays out. All it will take is a couple years of classes ranked outside the top five due to an inability to get the top kids from the South and an uncompetitive loss in the playoff, and OSU will decide it has to go to the SEC. Now would OSU and UM be the preferred play for the SEC? Of course--the OSU/UM game alone is one of the biggest properties in all of sports. But would UM go? At that point, it may not have any choice, knowing that if turned down the SEC it would have other B1G schools dying to take its spot. Indeed, you don't think MSU salivates at the thought of taking advantage of UM's indecision and taking a SEC spot with OSU in this scenario, instantly flipping the recruiting edge that UM built over decades because it would now be the only Michigan school in the super conference?
My point isn't that UM should go to the SEC. It should be a last resort option literally to save the football program if nothing else is feasible. However, if UM doesn't want it to come to that in 2-3 years, then we need to demand now that the B1G put together a similar athletic powerhouse conference today so that the massive SEC edge doesn't materialize.
Because adding Texas and Oklahoma isn't just another domino in realignment. It permanently creates a massive competitive edge for the SEC over the other conferences as they currently exist. Fans will see it. Recruits will see it. And for the non-SEC schools still longing to compete at the level they once did (the OSUs, Clemson, FSU etc.), they will see the only option is joining that league as it breaks away from the sport. The B1G is the one league positioned to compete with the SEC if it acts as boldly as the SEC did in getting OU and Texas.
But the wheels need to be put in motion now, not in 3 years after 3 more SEC titles and 6 teams ranking in the top 10. At that point, I'm not sure there will be any alternative to joining the SEC if you want to compete at the highest level. And because I'm certain OSU feels that way, the status quo won't just not be an option but will eventually mean a B1G without OSU and if not UM, then someone willing to go along (PSU probably).
The problem is in conference realignment the status quo is only an option if the top schools are happy with the status quo. And we all know there are two powers in the B1G whose brands dwarf the rest of the conference. Two schools who the SEC would undoubtedly add tomorrow if we wanted to come. Ohio State and Michigan. While Michigan's leadership may vacillate in terms of whether it wants to compete at the highest level, Ohio State will not accept any arrangement which permanently endangers its ability to compete for national titles, especially after the last ten year run under Meyer and Day. The problem with the status quo is it is going to directly hurt OSU's ability to win a national title. If the SEC is considered far and away the best league, the best players will all gravitate there, but especially in the South where OSU has made major inroads in the last ten years. Today, OSU has to beat one home state SEC school for the state's best players. Next year? It's Texas and Texas A&M, not to mention Oklahoma which basically is a Texas school in terms of recruiting.
If OSU's recruiting starts to take a hit, it's boosters and decision makers aren't going to wait ten years to see how it plays out. All it will take is a couple years of classes ranked outside the top five due to an inability to get the top kids from the South and an uncompetitive loss in the playoff, and OSU will decide it has to go to the SEC. Now would OSU and UM be the preferred play for the SEC? Of course--the OSU/UM game alone is one of the biggest properties in all of sports. But would UM go? At that point, it may not have any choice, knowing that if turned down the SEC it would have other B1G schools dying to take its spot. Indeed, you don't think MSU salivates at the thought of taking advantage of UM's indecision and taking a SEC spot with OSU in this scenario, instantly flipping the recruiting edge that UM built over decades because it would now be the only Michigan school in the super conference?
My point isn't that UM should go to the SEC. It should be a last resort option literally to save the football program if nothing else is feasible. However, if UM doesn't want it to come to that in 2-3 years, then we need to demand now that the B1G put together a similar athletic powerhouse conference today so that the massive SEC edge doesn't materialize.
Because adding Texas and Oklahoma isn't just another domino in realignment. It permanently creates a massive competitive edge for the SEC over the other conferences as they currently exist. Fans will see it. Recruits will see it. And for the non-SEC schools still longing to compete at the level they once did (the OSUs, Clemson, FSU etc.), they will see the only option is joining that league as it breaks away from the sport. The B1G is the one league positioned to compete with the SEC if it acts as boldly as the SEC did in getting OU and Texas.
But the wheels need to be put in motion now, not in 3 years after 3 more SEC titles and 6 teams ranking in the top 10. At that point, I'm not sure there will be any alternative to joining the SEC if you want to compete at the highest level. And because I'm certain OSU feels that way, the status quo won't just not be an option but will eventually mean a B1G without OSU and if not UM, then someone willing to go along (PSU probably).
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