Who's buying the hype?

[tarun262]

Caveat it by saying I will ignore random barbs from MSU, OSU, and ND fans unless you are really adding value. So, the rest - who's buying all the hype around how good Michigan can be? Media sites have us slated at 7-5 or 8-4 at best but insiders are saying this team will be pretty darn good this season with the D being something special.

Well, I am buying it. I was watching some of the games from last year and of our 7 losses last year, we had a chance in 5 of them (@MSU & @ND we had zero shot). We were outscored by over 100 points I believe in the 3rd quarter total last season because Clappy Happy Hoke was likely eating donuts and high-fiving players for winning the 1st half at half-time versus talking adjustments.

Utah - we were up going into the 3rd quarter I believe and we just completely stalled
Minn - we were up if not for a long 87 yard TD drive for them in the 2nd half - we held them in check and could not do squat in the 2nd half.
Rutgers - we just played terribly and should have won that game
Maryland - we should have won that game, our D was great, offense could not do anything in the 2nd half
OSU - we were up I believe in the 3rd quarter until a DG interception was returned for a TD

And think about the fact that our 5 prominent players that left (Clark, Funchess, Gardner, Ryan, Countess) all had pretty crappy years last year versus their usual selves - I mean really crappy across the board. I genuinely believe that if JH was the coach and actually coached (unlike Hoke) we would have beaten at least Rutgers and Utah and potentially Maryland. JH or any coach for that matter would have gotten us to 7-8 wins last year. Now, combine that with the fact that other then 5 players I mentioned, everyone is back, a year older, with more experience, stronger, and hopefully way more fundamentally sound. You have to assume that will count for at least +1 or +2 wins. Not to mention, our toughest games this year are at home (MSU, OSU, BYU). I'm buying the hype - I think we end up losing at most 2 of 4 against @Utah, @PSU, MSU, OSU. I predict 10-2 but we will know a lot more about this team about 2 months from now. Flip side of course is that we could have easily lost to PSU and Northwestern last year but we dominated with a crappy coach int hose games. Either way, should be fun to watch this team grow and mature hopefully.

GO BLUE!

 

[michnittlion]

I'm not a "sell", but neither am I a "buy." These things weigh on my mind:

1. I play around with statistical analysis (college football) on the side --- all the stuff (database running back to ~ 2000) I've run shows that teams typically do not improve THAT much in a new coach's 1st year. The big improvement comes in the 2nd year.

2. I think the hype around the D is too high. Yes, U-M ranked 7th in the country in total yards allowed per game. But when you look at somewhat more sophisticated rankings, it's not nearly as good. For instance, in football outsiders Defensive FEI rankings (I'm a particular fan of their algorithm), U-M's defense ranked 41st nationally. 6th best in the B1G.

3. I've mentioned this metric before, but I'll do it again because it really strikes me. There is nobody on the U-M roster who finished on an all-B1G team (even honorable mention) in the 2014 season. U-M is the only B1G team where this is the case. Maybe that was Hoke, maybe Harbaugh can change that, but that's the point U-M starts from talent-wise.

4. The schedule really calls for a large variance in "possible number of wins." Sure, U-M could beat OSU or MSU in Ann Arbor. They could also go all over the place in the 5 road games: Utah, Maryland, Minnesota, and Penn State are all 20th best to 50th best in the country type teams, and anything from 4-0 to 0-4 seems theoretically possible there. Hosting BYU and playing at Indiana aren't gimmes either. I guess 10-2 is possible, but if we're honest so is 5-7: the "safe play" is to split the difference and go 7-5 or 8-4.

 

[tarun262]

If Gus Malzahn can do it so can JH right?

 

[Wolverine50550]

Yeah Gus Malzahn is a good exmaple. Auburn was 3-9 in 2012 and they fired Chizik and he took them to 12-2 with a loss in the NC game to FSU in the 2013 season

They had lots of talent at Auburn just horrendous coaching. Coaching can make a massive difference.

Michigan may ahve lots of talent that was so badly coached by Hoke, that perhaps we could be really good this year if it develops fast and becomes unHokeinized. Then again it is possible the potential talent was severely ruined by Hoke and/or overrated that we may just be mediocre at
7-5 even with how great Harbaugh is that he will need more time to unHokeinize it combined with his own players before we become a a dominant Big Ten program

Its so hard to tell and we shall see.

 

[tarun262]

I said this winter - I refuse to believe that Hoke recruited all these 4/5 stars players that were all so overrated or terrible - statistically that is impossible. I have to believe Hoke created a culture of zero accountability, coasting and did not develop these players. Statistically we have to have talent - just under-developed and under utilized. So yes I believe we will do better then 7-5 because we will have talent...biggest question mark is QB though if we had Ruddock last year we probably would have won 2 more games

 

[Wolverine50550]

I said this winter - I refuse to believe that Hoke recruited all these 4/5 stars players that were all so overrated or terrible - statistically that is impossible. I have to believe Hoke created a culture of zero accountability, coasting and did not develop these players. Statistically we have to have talent - just under-developed and under utilized. So yes I believe we will do better then 7-5 because we will have talent...biggest question mark is QB though if we had Ruddock last year we probably would have won 2 more games

I totally agree. Just based on slightly better coaching alone lats year, we would have beat Rutgers and Maryland.And with Ruddock and/or better QB coaching for Gardner, we may have also have beaten Utah and Minnesota.

The coaching was so bad was a big reason we went 5-7 last year. With just adequate coaching, we probably would have gone 8-4 last season.

 

[Wolverine50550]

I said this winter - I refuse to believe that Hoke recruited all these 4/5 stars players that were all so overrated or terrible - statistically that is impossible. I have to believe Hoke created a culture of zero accountability, coasting and did not develop these players. Statistically we have to have talent - just under-developed and under utilized. So yes I believe we will do better then 7-5 because we will have talent...biggest question mark is QB though if we had Ruddock last year we probably would have won 2 more games

Do you also beleive we get one of OSU or MSU at home this season. IMHO. that is critically important because those games are massive rivals and we hate them so much that we need to stop the bleeding against them and just get that elusive first win against those 2 hated and despised foes. It would not look good to lose to both at home and then have to go and play the on the road in 2016 unless Michigan is going to be really good in 2016 and will be the favorite to take down Sparty in EL.

 

[tarun262]

Do you also beleive we get one of OSU or MSU at home this season. IMHO. that is critically important because those games are massive rivals and we hate them so much that we need to stop the bleeding against them and just get that elusive first win against those 2 hated and despised foes. It would not look good to lose to both at home and then have to go and play the on the road in 2016 unless Michigan is going to be really good in 2016 and will be the favorite to take down Sparty in EL.

I don't think we go 0-2 against them. I personally think we will win against MSU at home. Other the Rich Rod years, we have had their number at home - people forget that MSU in the last 4 years is 3-1 against us...3-0 at home, 0-1 on the road. It's a home game. MSU's offense will be great this year but still.

 

[TheDecker]

If you want to predict the record going "x changed, therefore we win 2 more games" is just a really poor way to do it.
One obvious reason is changing schedules, combined with the changing strengths of opponents (even if the same program that you played the previous year)

Additionally, Michigan fans are excited about HARBAUGH and the coaching change, but these kind of massive coaching and scheme changes almost never go smoothly in year 1.
Auburn is the only example I can think of at all, and that was changing to an incredibly simple zone-read offense. Changing to something pro-style is MUCH harder

When you look down the schedule

Utah - probable loss
(Michigan coukd win, but Utah is the more talented and more experienced team right now, with more comfort in their system, and is playing at home)

Oregon state - probable win
(Michigan is much more talented, Oregon state lost a lot, and is also going through a coaching change)

Unlv - win
(Michigan should out class unlv)

BYU - 50/50
(BYU is a talented team with a play making QB who is very comfortable in their system. Michigan won't be able to out talent them for a win, so it will be a battle)

Maryland - probable win
(Michigan is a more talented team, but Maryland is getting better and it's a conference opening road game, so it's not a guarantee)

Northwestern - probable win
(Michigan is a better team playing at home, but northwestern has some quality and Michigan has struggled with them recently)

Michigan st - loss
(The reality of this game is that MSU is MUCH better at ol, dl, and qb...usually results in a loss. And you know MSU will have this game even more circled than normal with all the talk about Michigan)

Minnesota - 50/50
(This team is REALLY improving with good talent and good coaching, and will push as the top team in the west for 2015. Road game here will be TOUGH. if anything I'd give Minnesota the edge, if forced to pick)

Rutgers - probable win
(Rutgers actually has some legit talent this year, and if they're healthy they could be a real threat in this game...but I'll still give a real edge to Michigan here based in LOS talent)

Indiana - probable win
(Again, a threatening team because of their offense and qb, but Michigan has a major talent advantage)

Penn state - 50/50
(Michigan has a talent advantage on the LOS but pen state has a massive advantage at QB and most skill positions. Plus the home night game will make this one very tough)

Ohio state - loss
(I'm sure Michigan fans don't want to hear this, but Ohio state is by far the most talented team in CFB for 2015 and could be the beat team in several years. They're dominant at almost every position and have elite coaching. They'll be next to unbeatable in 2015)




If you look through those game by games, a reasonable take on things puts you anywhere from 5-7 to 10-2

If you assume losses in the "loss and provable loss" games, splitting the "50/50" games and winning all but 1 of the "probable wins" it leaves you in that 6-8 win range

Personally, if I had to guess, I'd have Michigan at 7-5 for the regular season...which is right in line with Vegas and most of the "experts"

 

[michnittlion]

If Gus Malzahn can do it so can JH right?

Anything is possible. There are only a dozen and a couple games, and having a favorable record in the very close games is a great intangible. Maybe U-M wins 4 games by scoring in the game's final 70 seconds as well (Mississippi State & Alabama - very last play, Georgia - 0:25 left, Texas A&M - 1:10 left).

 

[tarun262]

Anything is possible. There are only a dozen and a couple games, and having a favorable record in the very close games is a great intangible. Maybe U-M wins 4 games by scoring in the game's final 70 seconds as well (Mississippi State & Alabama - very last play, Georgia - 0:25 left, Texas A&M - 1:10 left).

You're kinda pessimistic man LOSS to OSU & MSU??? Have you not learned anything from decades past? In major rivalry games, talent is chucked out the door - it's who wants it the most. Remember that game 2 years ago where OSU was favored by 24 I think and we lost by 6 with Gardner having a chance at the end? Remember all those years we always beat OSU in the 90s? Remember how some really bad MSU teams beat us? I think you rely way too much on stats (are you an acturial or something?). There is a reason games are played on the field, otherwise let's just all call it a season and give OSU a repeat because they are ranked #1 and statistically the best team (without anyone having played a single down). Mark my words man - we will NOT lose to both OSU & MSU regardless of how much more talented you think they are. We freaking lost to App State that one year with 15 players on our team that went on to play in the NFL - why did we even play that game? We should just have been given the W. Games are won and lost on the field.

 

[ArrowheadBlue]

you're discounting JH. First year coaches have problems? Did you forget about Bo? There's plenty of talent on this squad -- the defense should be very good which will give the offense more time to develop. UM will get either MSU or OSU or both but will probably lose a few other games like Bo did his first year.

 

[mokpra37]

Decker is right on. This Michigan team is a five loss team give or take one game. Unless there are major injuries to the opponents, you can book an L in games against OSU, MSU and Penn St. Add a loss to Utah and one of Minnesota, Maryland and BYU.

 

[anon_sg4bgyiuileo1]

Harbaugh hasn't coached a down yet.

Just based on that, 7-8 wins is reasonable to assume. My opinion will change three games in.

 

[TheDecker]

you're discounting JH. First year coaches have problems? Did you forget about Bo? There's plenty of talent on this squad -- the defense should be very good which will give the offense more time to develop. UM will get either MSU or OSU or both but will probably lose a few other games like Bo did his first year.

Yes, coaching transitions, learning new schemes, players fitting new roles, etc. Usually takes time

There is a reason that the standard is "players take major steps in year 2" is a saying

Exceptions happen, but coaching and scheme change almost always cause struggles early on

The good news is that struggles in 2015 don't mean you can't get excited for 2016 for that same reason

 

[michnittlion]

You're kinda pessimistic man LOSS to OSU & MSU??? Have you not learned anything from decades past? In major rivalry games, talent is chucked out the door - it's who wants it the most. Remember that game 2 years ago where OSU was favored by 24 I think and we lost by 6 with Gardner having a chance at the end? Remember all those years we always beat OSU in the 90s? Remember how some really bad MSU teams beat us? I think you rely way too much on stats (are you an acturial or something?). There is a reason games are played on the field, otherwise let's just all call it a season and give OSU a repeat because they are ranked #1 and statistically the best team (without anyone having played a single down). Mark my words man - we will NOT lose to both OSU & MSU regardless of how much more talented you think they are. We freaking lost to App State that one year with 15 players on our team that went on to play in the NFL - why did we even play that game? We should just have been given the W. Games are won and lost on the field.

Well ..... yes, I AM a statistics guy. Not an actuary (although I did take & pass those exams way back in the day), but I work in the consulting field and extensively use statistical models in what I do.

Yes, I know --- statistics are NOT the end all. There are intangibles in college football which are hard to quantify. Do the players & coaches have a good rapport? Does the team have good chemistry? Which way is a football going to bounce when it takes a funny bounce? All those things, impossible to quantify or predict, and thus a model will never be perfect.

That said, I do think numbers have their place and there are some legitimate reasons to be cautious on Michigan. Rome wasn't built in a day. For that matter, neither was Akron.

(1) Michigan hasn't even been competitive (at no point in the 2014 or 2013 games against MSU or OSU did I think "oh, Michigan might win this game") with Michigan State or Ohio State of late. (2) Michigan has a LOT of lose-able road games on the schedule. (3) Jim Harbaugh is a 1st-year-coach. For as much credit as he got for beating USC in 2007, that was still a team that only showed modest improvement in Harbaugh's first year (they finished 4-8 and moved from 10th to 9th in the Pac-12). (4) I think Michigan's defense wasn't as good as some thought in 2014. (5) I don't see very much proven (again, look at what the coaches and writers voted last season) returning talent on the 2015 team.

Not trying to be negative --- and if I'm wrong, I'll come back in December and admit it. But I think the big jump to 10+ win seasons won't happen until 2016. Not 2015.

 

[michnittlion]

you're discounting JH. First year coaches have problems? Did you forget about Bo? There's plenty of talent on this squad -- the defense should be very good which will give the offense more time to develop. UM will get either MSU or OSU or both but will probably lose a few other games like Bo did his first year.

Well, we do have one data point on Harbaugh. Stanford improved a decent bit from 2006 to 2007 (using FEI, which is my preferred single-point college football metric), yes. Not a rocket-size improvement (Stanford got a lot of publicity for beating USC in 2007 but big picture they still weren't particularly good), but it was more of an improvement than for a typical 1st-year-coach over the years.

That said, that's only one data point on JH as regards the improvement of his teams in his first year as an FBS HC. Maybe there is something special about JH, but I admittedly default to the longer-term, hundreds-of-data point trend of teams improving more from year 1 to year 2 than they do from year 0 to year 1.

FWIW, I don't think this is quite as relevant: but San Diego actually got worse record-wise (FEI is not available at the D-1AA level) in Harbaugh's 1st year, going from 8-2 to 7-4. The 49ers of course improved notably in Harbaugh's first year, but college and the NFL are considerably different games.

As mentioned in other posts, I'm not overly convinced as regards the talent with this squad.

As for Bo --- his first year was 46 years ago, and I don't see how that has any relevance from a predictive POV.

 

[tarun262]

Well ..... yes, I AM a statistics guy. Not an actuary (although I did take & pass those exams way back in the day), but I work in the consulting field and extensively use statistical models in what I do.

Yes, I know --- statistics are NOT the end all. There are intangibles in college football which are hard to quantify. Do the players & coaches have a good rapport? Does the team have good chemistry? Which way is a football going to bounce when it takes a funny bounce? All those things, impossible to quantify or predict, and thus a model will never be perfect.

That said, I do think numbers have their place and there are some legitimate reasons to be cautious on Michigan. Rome wasn't built in a day. For that matter, neither was Akron.

(1) Michigan hasn't even been competitive (at no point in the 2014 or 2013 games against MSU or OSU did I think "oh, Michigan might win this game") with Michigan State or Ohio State of late. (2) Michigan has a LOT of lose-able road games on the schedule. (3) Jim Harbaugh is a 1st-year-coach. For as much credit as he got for beating USC in 2007, that was still a team that only showed modest improvement in Harbaugh's first year (they finished 4-8 and moved from 10th to 9th in the Pac-12). (4) I think Michigan's defense wasn't as good as some thought in 2014. (5) I don't see very much proven (again, look at what the coaches and writers voted last season) returning talent on the 2015 team.

Not trying to be negative --- and if I'm wrong, I'll come back in December and admit it. But I think the big jump to 10+ win seasons won't happen until 2016. Not 2015.

You will be reaching out well before December proven wrong IMHO. Remember what Urban just did? Completely different system, same team and he took them to 12-0. People forget that it has happened recently. JH's system is not a heavy departure from what Hoke ran - similar talent is required and JH just executes it a heck of a lot better. Remember what he did with the 49ers. Also, remember the squad at Stanford he inherited was terrible - I mean they had Indiana type talent on their squad. Michigan has talent - I know you are caught up on the lack of All-Americans but we have talent, just under-developed. I am willing to bet you that this years squad (people that actually play) will have about 10 players that eventually end up in the NFL...Peppers, Taco, Ty Isaac, Green, Cole, Jenkins-Stone, Kalis, Mone, Wormley. Tell me how you think this squad does not have talent. I would argue more players will end up in the NFL from Michigan then from MSU's current squad. Don't forget the number of players the past 2 years that have ended up in the NFL - Beyer, Clark, Fitz, Taylor, Lewan, Funchess, Gardner, Wile, Ryan, Schofield & Demens. I hate to tell you man - your stats need some refining as do your statements. Even Fitz is playing and he did well in the playoffs. Hoke has always had terrible. I think what your stats fail to say is HOW BAD HOKE WAS!!! HE WAS TERRIBLE. Let me repeat it again, HE WAS TERRIBLE. Once again - HE WAS TERRIBLE as a HC. We have talent - way more then JH at Stanford his first year and probably as much as Urban had his first year at OSU.

 

[michnittlion]

You will be reaching out well before December proven wrong IMHO. Remember what Urban just did? Completely different system, same team and he took them to 12-0. People forget that it has happened recently. JH's system is not a heavy departure from what Hoke ran - similar talent is required and JH just executes it a heck of a lot better. Remember what he did with the 49ers. Also, remember the squad at Stanford he inherited was terrible - I mean they had Indiana type talent on their squad. Michigan has talent - I know you are caught up on the lack of All-Americans but we have talent, just under-developed. I am willing to bet you that this years squad (people that actually play) will have about 10 players that eventually end up in the NFL...Peppers, Taco, Ty Isaac, Green, Cole, Jenkins-Stone, Kalis, Mone, Wormley. Tell me how you think this squad does not have talent. I would argue more players will end up in the NFL from Michigan then from MSU's current squad. Don't forget the number of players the past 2 years that have ended up in the NFL - Beyer, Clark, Fitz, Taylor, Lewan, Funchess, Gardner, Wile, Ryan, Schofield & Demens. I hate to tell you man - your stats need some refining as do your statements. Even Fitz is playing and he did well in the playoffs. Hoke has always had terrible. I think what your stats fail to say is HOW BAD HOKE WAS!!! HE WAS TERRIBLE. Let me repeat it again, HE WAS TERRIBLE. Once again - HE WAS TERRIBLE as a HC. We have talent - way more then JH at Stanford his first year and probably as much as Urban had his first year at OSU.

Look at my picks in the annual upset pool on this site --- I am often terrible!!! One way or another, I'll be here this autumn to discuss.