Michigan is one of five schools on five-star wing Jaylen Brown’s list, and there’s been more smoke recently that he could end up in Ann Arbor. If he does, it would be one of the recruiting coups of the decade. Plus, how much of a rebuild does Jim Harbaugh face at Michigan?
We start first with Marietta, Ga., Wheeler’s Brown (6-7, Rivals.com’s No. 3 senior prospect nationally). This has been one of the crazier, least predictable basketball recruitments we’ve ever seen, which is why there appears to be hope for Michigan. Guys that would otherwise have been extremely involved in his recruitment have been asked to step aside. Former Michigan running back coach Fred Jackson once said “it takes a strong mother” to land a kid who wants to come from the south, and Michelle Brown seems to be that. She’s from Muskegon, Mich., as well, and there are significant family ties in Ann Arbor.
What worries most of the other college coaches recruiting him about Michigan, ironically enough, is an uncle. Those usually don’t work in U-M’s favor on the recruiting trail, but Brown’s uncle “seems to have a lot of juice,” one prominent head coach of a school recruiting Brown said recently. He was concerned that he had no ‘in’ with said uncle whatsoever, leaving him to wonder if he was on the outside looking in (only days after he thought his might be the team to beat).
There are legitimate reasons we’ve been skeptical on this one for months (if and when the time is right for sharing, we’ll share). We’re no longer saying “no chance,” though, in large part because of the strong influences he seems to have around him. For all the talk about Mitch McGary’s decision of Michigan over Duke, for example … well, McGary likely would have ended up playing for the Blue Devils had good friend and mentor Zack Novak not been in his ear. His parents wanted Duke, but Novak convinced him he needed to do what <I>he</I> wanted to do.
And he did.
Nobody seems to know for sure where they stand with Brown. That’s probably more disconcerting to Kentucky and Kansas, two others high on his list, than it is for Michigan head coach John Beilein, simply because they usually know exactly where they stand or what it might take to land a recruit.
At the same time, there’s a reason guys like analyst Brian Snow are saying, “I’m not stupid enough to believe Kansas isn’t a player here” (or something to that effect) when some say it's down to Michigan or Kentucky. Programs like Kentucky and Kansas “know how to get things done,” as another analyst put it, and they’ve landed more than their share of five stars in the past.
This one should end in a week or so. The column is already written in my head if he comes to Michigan, though that’s still not the prediction here. And yes, we’d love to be wrong. Who wouldn’t want to cover a talent like that for a potential National Championship team over being wrong about a kid’s college destination? The latter happens a lot more often in this business than the former, and though we're unbiased journalists (ahem), there's nothing like being on site covering a Final Four.
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On football, the level of optimism Michigan fans have for their team under Jim Harbaugh is - well, higher than Harbaugh's, at least in the early going. That’s the word from Schembechler Hall, where the coaches are doing what they can to build a program that can compete for championships in the near future.
The future is not now, according to those closest to it. Quarterback appears to be the most glaring weakness, unless someone like frosh Zach Gentry comes in and plays above his years to give the offense a spark. The defense should okay (despite the absence of a proven pass rusher), but receiver is a concern - ditto tight end and offensive line.
In other words, the majority of positions on offense.
This again goes to show how recruiting rankings can be deceiving. Both Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke did well in the rankings on paper, but take a look at the list of four-star prospects from the last several classes who didn’t exactly play to their rankings for various reasons:
2008
Ricky Barnum, OL
Boubacar Cissoko, DB*
J.B. Fitzgerald, LB
Taylor Hill, LB*
Kevin Koger, TE
Sam McGuffie, RB*
Elliott Mealer, OL
Brandon Moore, TE
Dann O’Neill, OL*
Terrence Robinson, WR
Michael Shaw, RB
Brandon Smith, DB*
Marcus Witherspoon, LB*
2009
William Campbell, DT (five-star)
Vlad Emilien, DB*
Tate Forcier, QB*
Cam Gordon, DB
Anthony LaLota, DE*
Craig Roh, DE
Je’Ron Stokes, WR*
Justin Turner, DB*
Quinton Washington, OL
2010
Richard Ash, DT
Cullen Christian, DB*
Demar Dorsey, DB*
Marvin Robinson, DB*
Ken Wilkins, DE
2011
Chris Barnett, TE*
Brennen Beyer, DE
Chris Bryant, OL
Justice Hayes, RB
*Did not finish at Michigan
That’s where we’ll stop, only because the jury’s still out on the kids from the classes of 2012-14. Senior DT Ondre Pipkins (2012), for example, was a five-star, but injuries have stunted his progress - he’s got one more chance to prove himself. There are several others in the same boat, guys who have yet to live up to their billing for one reason or another.
Attrition happens, of course, and there will always be some kids who don’t meet the hype. There are also those who exceed it and become professionals - the NFL is littered with two- and three-star prospects. NFL talent is NFL talent, and the list of Wolverines in the league has dwindled remarkably in the last 15 years.
When we first started doing the Pro Page for The Wolverine Magazine in the late 1990s, Michigan and Florida State were the schools with the most pros. Several Wolverines were significant contributors or stars on their NFL teams.
And now? U-M has two likely draft picks in receiver Devin Funchess and linebacker Jake Ryan, and a potential third in end Frank Clark, and the list of NFL Wolverines reads like this:
Jason Avant (Played at U-M from 2002-05), WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Tom Brady (1997-99), QB, New England Patriots
Alan Branch (2004-06), DT, New England Patriots
Stevie Brown (2006-09), S, New York Giants
Michael Cox (2009-11), RB, New York Giants
Kenny Demens (2009-12), LB, Arizona Cardinals
Larry Foote (1998-2001), LB, Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Goodwin (1999-2001), C, New Orleans Saints
Cameron Gordon (2010-13), LB, New England Patriots:
Brandon Graham (2006-09), LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Leon Hall (2003-06), CB, Cincinnati Bengals
David Harris (2003-06), LB, New York Jets
Junior Hemingway (2008-11), WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chad Henne (2004-07), QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tim Jamison (2005-08), DE, Houston Texans
Jordan Kovacs (2009-12), S, Miami Dolphins
Taylor Lewan (2010-13), OT, Tennessee Titans
Jake Long (2004-07), OT, St. Louis Rams
Mario Manningham (2005-07), WR, Free Agent
Mike Martin (2008-11), DT, Tennessee Titans
David Molk (2008-11), C, Philadelphia Eagles
Ryan Mundy (2003-06), DB, Chicago Bears
Patrick Omameh (2009-12), OG, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denard Robinson (2009-12), RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Michael Schofield (2010-13), OT, Denver Broncos
Fitzgerald Toussaint (2010-13), RB, Baltimore Ravens
LaMarr Woodley (2003-06), OLB, Oakland Raiders
Charles Woodson (1995-97), CB, Oakland Raiders
Most of the difference makers (Tom Brady, David Harris, Larry Foote, Charles Woodson, LaMarr Woodley) played for Lloyd Carr and are nearing the end of their careers. The vast majority of the others are bit players or non-starters.
NFL talent has been an indicator of Michigan’s success over the years, and this paints a pretty telling picture.
Michigan will get its share of four-stars under Jim Harbaugh, but they won’t be recruited from lists. Harbaugh is “the best evaluator of talent I’ve ever seen,” OC Tim Drevno said earlier this year, and he watches every kid’s film personally before a recruit can commit. One guy he absolutely loved when he was at Stanford: three-star linebacker Luke Kuechly of Cincinnati, who played for Boston College.
Kucehly, of course, went to the Carolina Panthers ninth overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was a two-time consensus All-American, led the NFL in tackles and won the Associated Press 2012 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, becoming the third youngest recipient of this award in NFL history.
So feel free to do your star gazing, but don’t be surprised if Harbaugh’s priorities are different than the lists you might have in front of you on a daily basis. Be less surprised when several of his three-star recruits and targets are playing at the highest level down the road.
One last note - Harbaugh plans to be in Ann Arbor for a long time. The same people who didn’t expect him to be at Michigan at all are now leading the “he won’t be long for the college game” charge, but he’s setting up camp in Michigan and loves the thought of his family being around him for several years.
We start first with Marietta, Ga., Wheeler’s Brown (6-7, Rivals.com’s No. 3 senior prospect nationally). This has been one of the crazier, least predictable basketball recruitments we’ve ever seen, which is why there appears to be hope for Michigan. Guys that would otherwise have been extremely involved in his recruitment have been asked to step aside. Former Michigan running back coach Fred Jackson once said “it takes a strong mother” to land a kid who wants to come from the south, and Michelle Brown seems to be that. She’s from Muskegon, Mich., as well, and there are significant family ties in Ann Arbor.
What worries most of the other college coaches recruiting him about Michigan, ironically enough, is an uncle. Those usually don’t work in U-M’s favor on the recruiting trail, but Brown’s uncle “seems to have a lot of juice,” one prominent head coach of a school recruiting Brown said recently. He was concerned that he had no ‘in’ with said uncle whatsoever, leaving him to wonder if he was on the outside looking in (only days after he thought his might be the team to beat).
There are legitimate reasons we’ve been skeptical on this one for months (if and when the time is right for sharing, we’ll share). We’re no longer saying “no chance,” though, in large part because of the strong influences he seems to have around him. For all the talk about Mitch McGary’s decision of Michigan over Duke, for example … well, McGary likely would have ended up playing for the Blue Devils had good friend and mentor Zack Novak not been in his ear. His parents wanted Duke, but Novak convinced him he needed to do what <I>he</I> wanted to do.
And he did.
Nobody seems to know for sure where they stand with Brown. That’s probably more disconcerting to Kentucky and Kansas, two others high on his list, than it is for Michigan head coach John Beilein, simply because they usually know exactly where they stand or what it might take to land a recruit.
At the same time, there’s a reason guys like analyst Brian Snow are saying, “I’m not stupid enough to believe Kansas isn’t a player here” (or something to that effect) when some say it's down to Michigan or Kentucky. Programs like Kentucky and Kansas “know how to get things done,” as another analyst put it, and they’ve landed more than their share of five stars in the past.
This one should end in a week or so. The column is already written in my head if he comes to Michigan, though that’s still not the prediction here. And yes, we’d love to be wrong. Who wouldn’t want to cover a talent like that for a potential National Championship team over being wrong about a kid’s college destination? The latter happens a lot more often in this business than the former, and though we're unbiased journalists (ahem), there's nothing like being on site covering a Final Four.
****
On football, the level of optimism Michigan fans have for their team under Jim Harbaugh is - well, higher than Harbaugh's, at least in the early going. That’s the word from Schembechler Hall, where the coaches are doing what they can to build a program that can compete for championships in the near future.
The future is not now, according to those closest to it. Quarterback appears to be the most glaring weakness, unless someone like frosh Zach Gentry comes in and plays above his years to give the offense a spark. The defense should okay (despite the absence of a proven pass rusher), but receiver is a concern - ditto tight end and offensive line.
In other words, the majority of positions on offense.
This again goes to show how recruiting rankings can be deceiving. Both Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke did well in the rankings on paper, but take a look at the list of four-star prospects from the last several classes who didn’t exactly play to their rankings for various reasons:
2008
Ricky Barnum, OL
Boubacar Cissoko, DB*
J.B. Fitzgerald, LB
Taylor Hill, LB*
Kevin Koger, TE
Sam McGuffie, RB*
Elliott Mealer, OL
Brandon Moore, TE
Dann O’Neill, OL*
Terrence Robinson, WR
Michael Shaw, RB
Brandon Smith, DB*
Marcus Witherspoon, LB*
2009
William Campbell, DT (five-star)
Vlad Emilien, DB*
Tate Forcier, QB*
Cam Gordon, DB
Anthony LaLota, DE*
Craig Roh, DE
Je’Ron Stokes, WR*
Justin Turner, DB*
Quinton Washington, OL
2010
Richard Ash, DT
Cullen Christian, DB*
Demar Dorsey, DB*
Marvin Robinson, DB*
Ken Wilkins, DE
2011
Chris Barnett, TE*
Brennen Beyer, DE
Chris Bryant, OL
Justice Hayes, RB
*Did not finish at Michigan
That’s where we’ll stop, only because the jury’s still out on the kids from the classes of 2012-14. Senior DT Ondre Pipkins (2012), for example, was a five-star, but injuries have stunted his progress - he’s got one more chance to prove himself. There are several others in the same boat, guys who have yet to live up to their billing for one reason or another.
Attrition happens, of course, and there will always be some kids who don’t meet the hype. There are also those who exceed it and become professionals - the NFL is littered with two- and three-star prospects. NFL talent is NFL talent, and the list of Wolverines in the league has dwindled remarkably in the last 15 years.
When we first started doing the Pro Page for The Wolverine Magazine in the late 1990s, Michigan and Florida State were the schools with the most pros. Several Wolverines were significant contributors or stars on their NFL teams.
And now? U-M has two likely draft picks in receiver Devin Funchess and linebacker Jake Ryan, and a potential third in end Frank Clark, and the list of NFL Wolverines reads like this:
Jason Avant (Played at U-M from 2002-05), WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Tom Brady (1997-99), QB, New England Patriots
Alan Branch (2004-06), DT, New England Patriots
Stevie Brown (2006-09), S, New York Giants
Michael Cox (2009-11), RB, New York Giants
Kenny Demens (2009-12), LB, Arizona Cardinals
Larry Foote (1998-2001), LB, Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Goodwin (1999-2001), C, New Orleans Saints
Cameron Gordon (2010-13), LB, New England Patriots:
Brandon Graham (2006-09), LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Leon Hall (2003-06), CB, Cincinnati Bengals
David Harris (2003-06), LB, New York Jets
Junior Hemingway (2008-11), WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Chad Henne (2004-07), QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tim Jamison (2005-08), DE, Houston Texans
Jordan Kovacs (2009-12), S, Miami Dolphins
Taylor Lewan (2010-13), OT, Tennessee Titans
Jake Long (2004-07), OT, St. Louis Rams
Mario Manningham (2005-07), WR, Free Agent
Mike Martin (2008-11), DT, Tennessee Titans
David Molk (2008-11), C, Philadelphia Eagles
Ryan Mundy (2003-06), DB, Chicago Bears
Patrick Omameh (2009-12), OG, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denard Robinson (2009-12), RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Michael Schofield (2010-13), OT, Denver Broncos
Fitzgerald Toussaint (2010-13), RB, Baltimore Ravens
LaMarr Woodley (2003-06), OLB, Oakland Raiders
Charles Woodson (1995-97), CB, Oakland Raiders
Most of the difference makers (Tom Brady, David Harris, Larry Foote, Charles Woodson, LaMarr Woodley) played for Lloyd Carr and are nearing the end of their careers. The vast majority of the others are bit players or non-starters.
NFL talent has been an indicator of Michigan’s success over the years, and this paints a pretty telling picture.
Michigan will get its share of four-stars under Jim Harbaugh, but they won’t be recruited from lists. Harbaugh is “the best evaluator of talent I’ve ever seen,” OC Tim Drevno said earlier this year, and he watches every kid’s film personally before a recruit can commit. One guy he absolutely loved when he was at Stanford: three-star linebacker Luke Kuechly of Cincinnati, who played for Boston College.
Kucehly, of course, went to the Carolina Panthers ninth overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was a two-time consensus All-American, led the NFL in tackles and won the Associated Press 2012 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, becoming the third youngest recipient of this award in NFL history.
So feel free to do your star gazing, but don’t be surprised if Harbaugh’s priorities are different than the lists you might have in front of you on a daily basis. Be less surprised when several of his three-star recruits and targets are playing at the highest level down the road.
One last note - Harbaugh plans to be in Ann Arbor for a long time. The same people who didn’t expect him to be at Michigan at all are now leading the “he won’t be long for the college game” charge, but he’s setting up camp in Michigan and loves the thought of his family being around him for several years.
