Why is it so taboo to speculate about attrition? I guess there is some potential to unfairly disparage a kid, but we see plenty of that on game day anyway, so what's the difference.
Personally, I always have an idea of whom I think may be considering a move elsewhere, and not because I don't like the kids or think they suck. On the contrary, I like all the kids that Michigan signs and hope the best for all of them. BUT this is a big boy business nowadays and the cream of the crop will rise to the top. And frankly if you're not the cream of the crop you are probably better off thinking of other options. While a Michigan degree is a tremendous opportunity, the only reason many (if not most) of our recruits are here in the first place is their athletic ability as they would not be admitted as "normal" students. So giving a guy a four year scholarship based on his high school achievements is ridiculous, IMO. If you're admitted on an academic scholarship and post a 2.0 your first year, I don't think you are on academic scholarship anymore.
So we know there will be attrition, and it is implied that we will sign a full class of 25. Simple math tells us we would need to lose near 10 underclassmen for that to happen.
So these are the guys I believe are potential attrition casualties (with no inside information other than reading this and other boards). I don't expect the Mods to contribute any more than what they have as they are professionals with inside info that doesn't need to be shared. And if anybody doesn't want to speculate, that's okay as you don't have to. For the record, I have nothing but respect for the athletes we sign. It's hard enough to survive college without the rigors of participating in collegiate athletics.
Without further delay, here are 12 guys that may not be Wolverines in the next year IMO for various reasons…
1. Chris Fox, OL, for health reasons. The writing is all over the wall for this one.
2. Wilton Speight, QB. Recruited by Borges, Redshirted under Nussmeier and basically being called out on HBO (reportedly) by the new head coach. I wouldn't blame the kid one bit for looking for a fresh start no matter what he tweeted out today.
3. Drake Harris, WR. I'm still hopeful that he can get healthy because he is potentially the game breaker we desperately need to play championship football. BUT if specialists can't get him healthy enough to play this year he probably wont' get the opportunity to play in 2016.
4. Ondre Pipkins, DT. This won't help the scholarship numbers, but Onde Phillips might be better off pursuing his endeavors elsewhere. IMO he still has a chance to play in the NFL, but not if he's buried behind Mone, Henry and Glasgow. As a true Sr. he could sit out a year to get healthy during his transfer year and get drafted in 2017 out of destination unknown.
5. Dan Samuelson, OL. Haven't heard a peep from him and he seems to be buried on the depth chart. But Blake Bars was in the same position last year and appears to be a potential backup for the next couple of seasons, so we'll see how he does this year (if he makes it to the fall).
6. Jaron Dukes, WR. Yes, he had a good spring but he was also a bit of a reach by Hoke and probably doesn't create the potential mismatches he should with his size.
7. Noah Furbush, LB. Came in banged up and lost some weight…Is he the mystery back 7 player looking to leave? No offense to Noah, but I think we could afford to lose him more than Gedeon or McCray.
8. Terry Richardson, DB. Can't put on the weight needed to be a durable player at this level. Unfortunately, he looks like he could be another Cass Tech disappointment.
9. Tom Strobel, DE. Passed on the depth chart by classmates Henry, Wormly, Godin and Glasgow and by younger players Charlton, Hurst and Poggi.
10. Allen Gant, LB. Might hang on this year, but I can't see him coming back for a fifth year.
11. Ross Douglass, Ath. Undersized man without a position. He still has some time to make his mark, but has been flip flopped by 2 different staffs now.
12. Reon Dawson, DB. Saw classmates Lewis and Stribling contribute right away, I think the coaches reached a bit due to his size. This is potentially a next spring move depending on results this year.
Personally, I always have an idea of whom I think may be considering a move elsewhere, and not because I don't like the kids or think they suck. On the contrary, I like all the kids that Michigan signs and hope the best for all of them. BUT this is a big boy business nowadays and the cream of the crop will rise to the top. And frankly if you're not the cream of the crop you are probably better off thinking of other options. While a Michigan degree is a tremendous opportunity, the only reason many (if not most) of our recruits are here in the first place is their athletic ability as they would not be admitted as "normal" students. So giving a guy a four year scholarship based on his high school achievements is ridiculous, IMO. If you're admitted on an academic scholarship and post a 2.0 your first year, I don't think you are on academic scholarship anymore.
So we know there will be attrition, and it is implied that we will sign a full class of 25. Simple math tells us we would need to lose near 10 underclassmen for that to happen.
So these are the guys I believe are potential attrition casualties (with no inside information other than reading this and other boards). I don't expect the Mods to contribute any more than what they have as they are professionals with inside info that doesn't need to be shared. And if anybody doesn't want to speculate, that's okay as you don't have to. For the record, I have nothing but respect for the athletes we sign. It's hard enough to survive college without the rigors of participating in collegiate athletics.
Without further delay, here are 12 guys that may not be Wolverines in the next year IMO for various reasons…
1. Chris Fox, OL, for health reasons. The writing is all over the wall for this one.
2. Wilton Speight, QB. Recruited by Borges, Redshirted under Nussmeier and basically being called out on HBO (reportedly) by the new head coach. I wouldn't blame the kid one bit for looking for a fresh start no matter what he tweeted out today.
3. Drake Harris, WR. I'm still hopeful that he can get healthy because he is potentially the game breaker we desperately need to play championship football. BUT if specialists can't get him healthy enough to play this year he probably wont' get the opportunity to play in 2016.
4. Ondre Pipkins, DT. This won't help the scholarship numbers, but Onde Phillips might be better off pursuing his endeavors elsewhere. IMO he still has a chance to play in the NFL, but not if he's buried behind Mone, Henry and Glasgow. As a true Sr. he could sit out a year to get healthy during his transfer year and get drafted in 2017 out of destination unknown.
5. Dan Samuelson, OL. Haven't heard a peep from him and he seems to be buried on the depth chart. But Blake Bars was in the same position last year and appears to be a potential backup for the next couple of seasons, so we'll see how he does this year (if he makes it to the fall).
6. Jaron Dukes, WR. Yes, he had a good spring but he was also a bit of a reach by Hoke and probably doesn't create the potential mismatches he should with his size.
7. Noah Furbush, LB. Came in banged up and lost some weight…Is he the mystery back 7 player looking to leave? No offense to Noah, but I think we could afford to lose him more than Gedeon or McCray.
8. Terry Richardson, DB. Can't put on the weight needed to be a durable player at this level. Unfortunately, he looks like he could be another Cass Tech disappointment.
9. Tom Strobel, DE. Passed on the depth chart by classmates Henry, Wormly, Godin and Glasgow and by younger players Charlton, Hurst and Poggi.
10. Allen Gant, LB. Might hang on this year, but I can't see him coming back for a fifth year.
11. Ross Douglass, Ath. Undersized man without a position. He still has some time to make his mark, but has been flip flopped by 2 different staffs now.
12. Reon Dawson, DB. Saw classmates Lewis and Stribling contribute right away, I think the coaches reached a bit due to his size. This is potentially a next spring move depending on results this year.
