I don't see a way this team is going into Columbus and beating OSU, barring catastrophic injuries/scandal for the buckeyes. OSU is going to have the best offense in the history of the big ten. Yes, that is how good I think they will be. Justin Fields is literally the perfect QB for 2020, and, if not for Trevor Lawrence being an absurd mountain man of a physical specimen, he'd be the clear #1 overall pick, IMO.
Look at us vs. OSU in terms of position groups:
QB: Massive OSU advantage. We have two guys that have never started a game and have been middling (to put it kindly in Joe's case) in limited action. They have a kid with a 10-1 TD/INT ratio that will almost assuredly be a Heisman finalist.
RB: Advantage Michigan. Amazing how good recruiting can fix a big hole very quickly. Two years ago this position looked like a complete mess. Now I think we have the best group in the conference, and top 5 in the country. The OSU backs are ok (it'll be Teague and Crowley probably unless a first year kid breaks through) but they're not on the level of ZC. I would say Teague is very similar to Haskins, but give me the immense versatility of Corum, Evans, etc. plus the bell cow capability of ZC all day.
WR: Advantage OSU. Pretty big, too. I love Nico, he is one of my favorite Wolverines in recent years and, IMO, our best big bodied receiver since Braylon (though Adrian Arrington has an argument there). But OSU is absurdly stacked. Olave is a first round pick (hard to believe he was a low 3 star we very nearly got before OSU got involved, great eval by our staff), Wilson is a first or second round pick. Julian Fleming is one of the most impressive 5 star receivers I've ever seen. It would be very hard to top that trio anywhere outside of Tuscaloosa. Bell is ok, we all love him for his work ethic, sure. But he's an average Big Ten receiver. I'm excited about some of the young guys (especially Jackson) but OSU has an NFL trio.
TE: Advantage OSU. Big. Ruckert and Farrell might be the best duo in the country. Again, a great eval by our staff with Ruckert. I remember thinking for sure "TE U" would lure him to Ann Arbor, and the spread look of Meyer just made no sense for him. But here we are. Michigan replaces McKeon (a good thing, IMO) with 5th year Eubanks (he's a fine receiver but doesn't block anybody) and probably Erik All. Though the coaches love All, he has like 3 catches in his career so you really can't reasonably project him as anywhere near the OSU duo. Schoonmaker has done nothing of note, and I doubt any of the younger guys are ready physically though I like Hibner a lot.
OL: Advantage OSU. Big. On paper the OSU line is the best in the nation. They won't be, but on paper they are. They're going to start two sure fire high draft picks in Davis and Meyers, and Munford, also likely to be drafted, might lose his job because Paris Johnson Jr. is a freak. They have 5 five star linemen competing for the 2.5 open slots. Harry Miller, another great eval from our staff that broke my heart, Nick Petit-Frere (ditto to Miller), Max Wray, it's a ridiculous embarrassment of riches. Imagine having a three year starter at left tackle that's currently ranked in the top 100 of most draft projections, and your own board thinks he's going to lose his spot because you have a 5 star freak that you can't keep off the field. Wild. Michigan has a total stud in Mayfield that was AWESOME late last year, especially against Chase Young. But 4 new starters, none of which were recruited anywhere near the level of the OSU kids (just a fact) always spells trouble.
Overall: Big OSU advantage. Much more talent, much more experience. Plus Ryan Day appears to be a genius.
Moving on to defense, which is incredibly painful because when you see this breakdown you'll realize we were seriously involved with basically every OSU starter and were even the favorites for multiple.
DE: OSU, but close. Probably the best unit on the UM team. Love Hutchinson, and Paye is basically the ultimate argument against those saying we shouldn't recruit the NE so much. But WOW is OSU talented. Tyreke Smith, UM heavily pursued. Zach Harrison, still so much pain. Tyler Friday, I'm in tears. Jonathan Cooper is somehow in what has to be his 27th year of eligibility. They're going to be really, really good and the main difference here, for me at least, is who do you feel more comfortable with coming off the bench, Zach Harrison or Luiji/Welschoff? Depth is much more proven, and talented, at OSU.
DT: OSU. BIG. Taron Vincent. Tommy Togiai. Haskell Garrett. My favorite trio of interior DL in the conference by far. I have very high hopes for Hinton and hope to see a big move from Mazi this year, but depending on two second year kids with almost no experience is rough. Kemp is what he is. He's ok, he's an average big ten DT and I'm very glad he's back. Jeter was AWFUL last year. Very little depth, cannot afford an injury at all and need Smith to really step up.
LB: Advantage UM. I actually don't like the OSU lb corps at all. Browning, another UM recruit, is a projected first round pick based on his absurd measurables, but the kid has done basically nothing in college and he's a RS junior I believe. I can't stand Borland and Werner. I have no idea how or why they've played so much at OSU but it's like a curse for them. The kids are so experienced and are "ok," it's hard to unseat them, but they are the clear weakness of the defense and have been for years. McGrone is a better player than all 3, and I'm excited to see the speed we're going to put on the field with a healthy ross next to him and Barrett taking over for Hudson. Michigan should have the fastest LBs in the conference and McGrone + Ross are absolute thumpers.
Secondary: OSU. Wade is a star for OSU, surprised he came back in a very weak corner draft, but he's better than Ambry, who is a very good player in his own right. Vincent Gray simply is not playable physically against high caliber opponents. I like how he tackles, etc., but he just cannot run with OSU WRs, and we saw that quite clearly last year and against both PSU and Alabama. I am very much hoping we see a big move from Perry, Seldon, Green-Warren, Turner, etc. to unseat him. Frankly Gray would be far better suited at SS, IMO. Amir Riep is far more proven than anybody we have at the second corner position, and josh proctor is an established Big Ten safety. I like our safeties more than I have in, well, maybe ever, with Dax and Hawkins, but that's not enough to overcome what I see as a gaping hole at corner for us.
Coaching: No reason to really break this down. The advantage is OSU, and it is big. Don Brown in his career at UM has given up almost 10 yards per play against the first team OSU offense. Think about that. Ryan Day, since he took over the OSU offense, has scored almost 60 points per game against Michigan, and has more plays of 20 yards or more than punts + sacks allowed combined. Harbaugh is 0-5 against OSU. Enough said.
So, overall, I have a few rules for who I pick in college football games. 1. Better quarterback. 2. Better OL. 3. Better DL. 4. Intangibles. I do not think it is reasonable to believe we have the advantage, or are really even close, in any of those four categories.
However, here is the silver lining: 2021. By my count, assuming Mayfield leaves early, Michigan loses only Nico, Mayfield, Ross, Thomas, Hawkins, Kemp, Paye from its starting lineup. Michigan could, in theory, return all 5 OL starters if Mayfield stays for his RS Jr. season. Michigan returns 7 of its top 9 DL. Michigan will almost assuredly return its starting QB unless McCarthy is just a monster the second he gets on campus. 2021 is the year. I know we always say that, but it's true and it has to be. Look at this:
2021 should be depth chart
QB: returning starter McCaffrey/JM
RB: third year ZC, Corum
WR: Bell, Jackson, Johnson, Sainristill, Henning, Wilson
TE: Third year All
OL: Hayes, Mayfield, Rumler, Carpenter, Jones, Keegan, etc.
DT: Third year Hinton + Mazi
DE: Senior Hutch (hopefully) Ojabo, Morris, Senior Luiji
LB: McGrone, Barrett, Solomon, Thomas, Mullings, etc.
CB: Perry, Seldon, Turner, Green-Warren, Senior Greens, etc.
S: Dax + a million very highly recruited options Morant, Johnson, etc.
OSU replaces fields without a clear next in line. Loses Wilson and Olave. Loses 3/5 of the OL at least barring early departures. Loses all 3 starting LBs. Loses both top corners. Yes, they recruit like crazy, but for the first time since 2016 we will have close to the same talent, and MUCH more experience. We also get them at home. 2021 has GOT to be the year.
Looking at the four criteria I listed above again, but for 2021: 1. Better QB? Likely UM. 2. Better OL? OSU will be extremely talented but Michigan could bring back all 5 starters. 3. Better DL? Probably still OSU. 4. Intangibles? We're at home and NEED it. Senior heavy team.
Look at us vs. OSU in terms of position groups:
QB: Massive OSU advantage. We have two guys that have never started a game and have been middling (to put it kindly in Joe's case) in limited action. They have a kid with a 10-1 TD/INT ratio that will almost assuredly be a Heisman finalist.
RB: Advantage Michigan. Amazing how good recruiting can fix a big hole very quickly. Two years ago this position looked like a complete mess. Now I think we have the best group in the conference, and top 5 in the country. The OSU backs are ok (it'll be Teague and Crowley probably unless a first year kid breaks through) but they're not on the level of ZC. I would say Teague is very similar to Haskins, but give me the immense versatility of Corum, Evans, etc. plus the bell cow capability of ZC all day.
WR: Advantage OSU. Pretty big, too. I love Nico, he is one of my favorite Wolverines in recent years and, IMO, our best big bodied receiver since Braylon (though Adrian Arrington has an argument there). But OSU is absurdly stacked. Olave is a first round pick (hard to believe he was a low 3 star we very nearly got before OSU got involved, great eval by our staff), Wilson is a first or second round pick. Julian Fleming is one of the most impressive 5 star receivers I've ever seen. It would be very hard to top that trio anywhere outside of Tuscaloosa. Bell is ok, we all love him for his work ethic, sure. But he's an average Big Ten receiver. I'm excited about some of the young guys (especially Jackson) but OSU has an NFL trio.
TE: Advantage OSU. Big. Ruckert and Farrell might be the best duo in the country. Again, a great eval by our staff with Ruckert. I remember thinking for sure "TE U" would lure him to Ann Arbor, and the spread look of Meyer just made no sense for him. But here we are. Michigan replaces McKeon (a good thing, IMO) with 5th year Eubanks (he's a fine receiver but doesn't block anybody) and probably Erik All. Though the coaches love All, he has like 3 catches in his career so you really can't reasonably project him as anywhere near the OSU duo. Schoonmaker has done nothing of note, and I doubt any of the younger guys are ready physically though I like Hibner a lot.
OL: Advantage OSU. Big. On paper the OSU line is the best in the nation. They won't be, but on paper they are. They're going to start two sure fire high draft picks in Davis and Meyers, and Munford, also likely to be drafted, might lose his job because Paris Johnson Jr. is a freak. They have 5 five star linemen competing for the 2.5 open slots. Harry Miller, another great eval from our staff that broke my heart, Nick Petit-Frere (ditto to Miller), Max Wray, it's a ridiculous embarrassment of riches. Imagine having a three year starter at left tackle that's currently ranked in the top 100 of most draft projections, and your own board thinks he's going to lose his spot because you have a 5 star freak that you can't keep off the field. Wild. Michigan has a total stud in Mayfield that was AWESOME late last year, especially against Chase Young. But 4 new starters, none of which were recruited anywhere near the level of the OSU kids (just a fact) always spells trouble.
Overall: Big OSU advantage. Much more talent, much more experience. Plus Ryan Day appears to be a genius.
Moving on to defense, which is incredibly painful because when you see this breakdown you'll realize we were seriously involved with basically every OSU starter and were even the favorites for multiple.
DE: OSU, but close. Probably the best unit on the UM team. Love Hutchinson, and Paye is basically the ultimate argument against those saying we shouldn't recruit the NE so much. But WOW is OSU talented. Tyreke Smith, UM heavily pursued. Zach Harrison, still so much pain. Tyler Friday, I'm in tears. Jonathan Cooper is somehow in what has to be his 27th year of eligibility. They're going to be really, really good and the main difference here, for me at least, is who do you feel more comfortable with coming off the bench, Zach Harrison or Luiji/Welschoff? Depth is much more proven, and talented, at OSU.
DT: OSU. BIG. Taron Vincent. Tommy Togiai. Haskell Garrett. My favorite trio of interior DL in the conference by far. I have very high hopes for Hinton and hope to see a big move from Mazi this year, but depending on two second year kids with almost no experience is rough. Kemp is what he is. He's ok, he's an average big ten DT and I'm very glad he's back. Jeter was AWFUL last year. Very little depth, cannot afford an injury at all and need Smith to really step up.
LB: Advantage UM. I actually don't like the OSU lb corps at all. Browning, another UM recruit, is a projected first round pick based on his absurd measurables, but the kid has done basically nothing in college and he's a RS junior I believe. I can't stand Borland and Werner. I have no idea how or why they've played so much at OSU but it's like a curse for them. The kids are so experienced and are "ok," it's hard to unseat them, but they are the clear weakness of the defense and have been for years. McGrone is a better player than all 3, and I'm excited to see the speed we're going to put on the field with a healthy ross next to him and Barrett taking over for Hudson. Michigan should have the fastest LBs in the conference and McGrone + Ross are absolute thumpers.
Secondary: OSU. Wade is a star for OSU, surprised he came back in a very weak corner draft, but he's better than Ambry, who is a very good player in his own right. Vincent Gray simply is not playable physically against high caliber opponents. I like how he tackles, etc., but he just cannot run with OSU WRs, and we saw that quite clearly last year and against both PSU and Alabama. I am very much hoping we see a big move from Perry, Seldon, Green-Warren, Turner, etc. to unseat him. Frankly Gray would be far better suited at SS, IMO. Amir Riep is far more proven than anybody we have at the second corner position, and josh proctor is an established Big Ten safety. I like our safeties more than I have in, well, maybe ever, with Dax and Hawkins, but that's not enough to overcome what I see as a gaping hole at corner for us.
Coaching: No reason to really break this down. The advantage is OSU, and it is big. Don Brown in his career at UM has given up almost 10 yards per play against the first team OSU offense. Think about that. Ryan Day, since he took over the OSU offense, has scored almost 60 points per game against Michigan, and has more plays of 20 yards or more than punts + sacks allowed combined. Harbaugh is 0-5 against OSU. Enough said.
So, overall, I have a few rules for who I pick in college football games. 1. Better quarterback. 2. Better OL. 3. Better DL. 4. Intangibles. I do not think it is reasonable to believe we have the advantage, or are really even close, in any of those four categories.
However, here is the silver lining: 2021. By my count, assuming Mayfield leaves early, Michigan loses only Nico, Mayfield, Ross, Thomas, Hawkins, Kemp, Paye from its starting lineup. Michigan could, in theory, return all 5 OL starters if Mayfield stays for his RS Jr. season. Michigan returns 7 of its top 9 DL. Michigan will almost assuredly return its starting QB unless McCarthy is just a monster the second he gets on campus. 2021 is the year. I know we always say that, but it's true and it has to be. Look at this:
2021 should be depth chart
QB: returning starter McCaffrey/JM
RB: third year ZC, Corum
WR: Bell, Jackson, Johnson, Sainristill, Henning, Wilson
TE: Third year All
OL: Hayes, Mayfield, Rumler, Carpenter, Jones, Keegan, etc.
DT: Third year Hinton + Mazi
DE: Senior Hutch (hopefully) Ojabo, Morris, Senior Luiji
LB: McGrone, Barrett, Solomon, Thomas, Mullings, etc.
CB: Perry, Seldon, Turner, Green-Warren, Senior Greens, etc.
S: Dax + a million very highly recruited options Morant, Johnson, etc.
OSU replaces fields without a clear next in line. Loses Wilson and Olave. Loses 3/5 of the OL at least barring early departures. Loses all 3 starting LBs. Loses both top corners. Yes, they recruit like crazy, but for the first time since 2016 we will have close to the same talent, and MUCH more experience. We also get them at home. 2021 has GOT to be the year.
Looking at the four criteria I listed above again, but for 2021: 1. Better QB? Likely UM. 2. Better OL? OSU will be extremely talented but Michigan could bring back all 5 starters. 3. Better DL? Probably still OSU. 4. Intangibles? We're at home and NEED it. Senior heavy team.
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