Afternoon, y’all!
We had a good day yesterday. The only loss was a game in which we took Memphis in the AM, but COVID protocols took out their two best players along with a third. Stay tuned to this thread as I posted that there hours before the tip.
Aside from that… we went 3-0 and our Dog of the Day hit!
Yesterday’s recap:
Maryland -4 (won by…a lot)
KAN/NEV u155.5 (149 total points)
BUT -2 (won by 4)
PHI +115 (won in OT)
NCAAB:
Michigan at UCF (+2.5)
Don’t throw tomatoes at me, OK? Michigan has 77-percent of the money and 71-percent of tickets yet the line has moved from -4 to -2.5 in UCF’s favor. There’s a substantially strong signal on smart money here, too. The signals are too strong to ignore, so, for your sake, here’s to a two-point Michigan win.
Pick: UCF +2.5
NCAAF:
Michigan State/Pitt O/U56
This one is my favorite of the day. Want to know how much the Ken’s - Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker - mattered to this game? The line went from 63 to 56 when their absence became official. Pitt‘s pass defense ranks 115th in the country and Michigan State’s ranks 130th, so this game is entirely contingent on the quarterbacks taking advantage of that. That being said, Pitt’s rushing defense ranks 5th and should shut down that phase for the Spartans without Walker. Additionally, MSU’s ranks 12th and should do the same to Pitt’s run game. I think we see points early in the air, but the game settles down in the second half. It has “oh, this is going over,” until there’s a really slow 3rd quarter that sets up for a nail-biting under. There’s more smart money here than any game this week, so the signals are there for our peace of mind, too.
Pick: Under
Dog of the Day:
TBL +125: sticking with the NHL for today’s dog. I think there’s always great value in that league for ML’s.
That’s all I like for today. I don’t want to blow smoke. Small slate, but one I feel good about. If I like anything else later, I’ll update here.
We had a good day yesterday. The only loss was a game in which we took Memphis in the AM, but COVID protocols took out their two best players along with a third. Stay tuned to this thread as I posted that there hours before the tip.
Aside from that… we went 3-0 and our Dog of the Day hit!
Yesterday’s recap:
Maryland -4 (won by…a lot)
KAN/NEV u155.5 (149 total points)
BUT -2 (won by 4)
PHI +115 (won in OT)
NCAAB:
Michigan at UCF (+2.5)
Don’t throw tomatoes at me, OK? Michigan has 77-percent of the money and 71-percent of tickets yet the line has moved from -4 to -2.5 in UCF’s favor. There’s a substantially strong signal on smart money here, too. The signals are too strong to ignore, so, for your sake, here’s to a two-point Michigan win.
Pick: UCF +2.5
NCAAF:
Michigan State/Pitt O/U56
This one is my favorite of the day. Want to know how much the Ken’s - Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker - mattered to this game? The line went from 63 to 56 when their absence became official. Pitt‘s pass defense ranks 115th in the country and Michigan State’s ranks 130th, so this game is entirely contingent on the quarterbacks taking advantage of that. That being said, Pitt’s rushing defense ranks 5th and should shut down that phase for the Spartans without Walker. Additionally, MSU’s ranks 12th and should do the same to Pitt’s run game. I think we see points early in the air, but the game settles down in the second half. It has “oh, this is going over,” until there’s a really slow 3rd quarter that sets up for a nail-biting under. There’s more smart money here than any game this week, so the signals are there for our peace of mind, too.
Pick: Under
Dog of the Day:
TBL +125: sticking with the NHL for today’s dog. I think there’s always great value in that league for ML’s.
That’s all I like for today. I don’t want to blow smoke. Small slate, but one I feel good about. If I like anything else later, I’ll update here.
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