Random thoughts as we approach Signing Day:
- Hearing that Michigan has offered a stud TE from Concord De La Salle (CA) and taking a look at a talented lineman by the name of Tagaloa. Also hearing that they will not be deciding for a long time and are wide-open. Devi Asiasi and Boss Tagaloa? No. I'm talking about stud freshman TE Isaiah Foskey (6-4, 205, '19) who played up a level on the JV team along with classmate Beaux Tagaloa (5-11, 275, DT, '19). Beaux is the younger brother of Boss. Isaiah is a complete stud and was offered by Kansas as an 8th-grader. Michigan is his second offer. Word is that Boss Tagaloa's younger brother recently had open-heart surgery. I am not sure if that is Beaux or if he has another brother, but if Boss decides to stay close to home due to that it is perfectly understandable.
- Speaking of De La Salle, I just saw that the moist recent crystal ball picks for each of them were in favor of Michigan. We are talking about Ace Anbender of MGoBlog, who predicted both to Michigan at 1:00 am this morning and Lars Hanson of the Washington Insider, who crystal-balled Asiasi to Michigan. Also hearing that at least one USC insider thuinks that both are headed out-of-state. That being said, I think UCLA is the main competition for both and they will be tough pulls in getting them to leave home. I would go 50% on Asiasi and a touch under for Tagaloa. Would be nice, though, to start building a pipeline at De La Salle, especially considering those talented freshman.
- I must be living in some sort of an alternative universe. Am I the only person who has never heard of Ric Flair? I confess that my wrestling acumen is limited to the troika of Dick the Bruiser, Bobo Brazil and Hulk Hogan, which perhaps is more a reflection of my vintage than any interest in non-Olympic wrestling that I may possess.
- As we approach Signing Day and have entered the dead period it has been yet another roller coaster ride when it comes to commitments, de-commitments and figuring out who we will land and who we will miss out on. One thing is certain, Michigan fans have never experienced a roller coaster anything quite like this one. As Harbaugh and staff march towards a class of approximately 30 signees, there have clearly been more ups than downs. Nevertheless, every class, even our very best classes, have at least one or two late misses that make fans feel as though they did not quite reach full expectations. It happens every year. So if we lose out on a Jordan Elliott or Devefry Hamilton here and there, it is the norm. What would really be a kick in the gut would be to finish second on Rashan Gary come Wednesday. We can pretty much live with virtually anyone else- Hill, the California kids, etc....-deciding to go elsewhere. But Gary, the first consensus number one ranked prospect as per the four main services in history (albeit it a relatively short history), is a must get and the crown jewel to what would be one of the best Michigan recruiting classes in decades. I am more than cautiously optimistic and virtually have him penciled into the class. If he were to go elsewhere I don't think there will EVER have been a miss quite like with him. So lets keep our fingers crossed for Wednesday.
- So where does this class stack up with the very best classes that Michigan has recruited over the past forty years? I will reserve judgement on that until I see how we close, but time-permitting I will try and put together a detailed analysis later this month. That being said, as a little preview the hoighest ranked classes (top 2-3 nationally that I can recall are the following classes:
1981 (25 signees): Four and five stars included the likes of Greg Washington, Eric Kattus, Brad Cochran, Clay Miller, Rick Rogers, Kevin Brooks, Brian Mercer, Bruce Brown, Joe Gray, Mike Hammerstein and Jeff Akers. The class did not quite turn out to be as strong as its initial rankings, in part due to a lack of true difference-makers.
1986 (24 signees): This was a loaded class which included the likes of five star talents such as Warde Manuel and Greg McMurty, an amazing 7 RB recruits (Allen Jefferson, Huemartin Robinson, David Key, Tracy Williams, Tony Boles, Leroy Hoard, Jarrod Bunch) and consensus prep AAs such as the late Vada Murray, T.J. Osman, and Trey Walker along with several other four star types (Tom Dohring, Marc Spencer, Tim Williams). Some of the under-the-radar kids were better than advertised: Chris Calloway, Mike Teeter and Jarrod Bunch. A really special and deep class.
1991 (20 signees): Not a very big class but loaded with talent such as five-star Tyrone Wheatley, and all-americans Trent Zenkewicz, Joe Marinaro, Jason Horn, Tree Jenkins, Che' Foster, Walter Reggans, Jamie Mignon and Deollo Anderson. Thjere were some busts in there, but coming in it was a highly rated class.
1993 (24 signees): Lots of talent coming into this class, but also HUGE attrition. Two of key contributors actually ended up being walk-ons (Brian Griese and Eric Mayes) and another was a virtually unknown Canadian (Tshimanga Biakabutuka). The highest profile signees were Trevor Pryce, Clarence Thompson, J.J. Brown, Will Carr, Damon Denson, Glen Steele, Mike Elston, Zach Adami, Rob Swett, Scott Loeffler, Seth Smith and Jon Ritchie. Lots of talent, and much of it transferred out too soon (Pryce, Ritchie) or had other issues (Thompson). Fifth-years won a national title.
1998 (19 signees): Coming off a national title Michigan put together a top-heavy class with at least four players who would be considered five stars (Drew Henson- the first to commit back in December 1996, Justin Fargas, David Terrell, Marquise Walker) and several other national top 100 types in Larry Foote, Victor Hobson, Walter Cross, Cato June and Dave Armstrong. Hayden Epstein was the top kicker in the nation while kids like Bennie Joppru, Evan Coleman, Dave Petruziello, Julius Curry and Dan Rumishek were national top 250 types. Problem with this class was its relatively small size (numbers do matter) and lack of linemen, especially on the OL (Just Joe Denay among signees, although Petruziello eventually moved over from the DL).
2001 (20 signees): After a couple of disappointing classes Llloyd Carr became aggressive and this was the first class where Michigan loaded up on verbals very early, as in before senior season. Not a huge class, but a lot of star power. Kelly Baraka, Marlon Jackson, Pat Massey and Enest Shazor were all five-stare types. Tim Massaquoi, Adam Stenavich, Scott McClintock, David Underwood, and Pierre Woods were all highly rated. Best player turned out to be a two star-Braylon Edwards.
2003 (19 signees): Another pretty top heavy class with the likes of Lamarr Woodley, Prescott Burgess, Shawn Crable, Ryan Mundy and Jake Long (by Signing Day people knew he was a stud). Will Paul was a bust. Leon Hall, Adam Kraus, Clayton Richard and Jeff Zuttah among the many other highly rated kids.
2004 (22 signees): Chad Hennes was the crown jewel, but Max Martin, Brett Gallimore, Jeremy Ciulla, Doug Dutch, Tim Jamison, Alan Branch, Adrian Arrington, Will Johnson and Morgan Trent were among the other highly rated kids. Best of bunch ended up being lowly three star RB Mike Hart.
2005(23 signees): I've gotta say that Lloyd recruited at a very high level during most of his tenure, and 2005 was no exception. Some busts though in this class. Stars included Kevin Grady, Antonio Bass, Mario Manningham, Marques Slocum, Justin Schifano, James McKinney, Cory Zirbel, Terrance Taylor, Eugene Germany and Carson Butler.
So that brings us to the Class of 2016. How will this class stack up from a historical perspective? In assessing this we of course have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to the earlier classes. We know which blue-chippers lived up to expectations and which ones failed. And there will inevitably be prospects who fail. It is the nature of competition. Only 22 starting spots for 85 scholarship athletes.
However, also keep in mind that we also know a lot more about the relative ceilings of our current four and three stars than we did back in the day. Direct access to video enables even the average recruiting fan to see the flaws in four stars that we were not able to see back about ten years ago. Back then fans had to have blind faith in recruiting analysts' ratings/rankings. Now they can see a lot of game film for themselves. what this means to me is that I see the flaws and potential ceiling in a player such as Dylan Crawford or Kareem Walker, something I would not have seen 15 years ago. So, in a sense, I tend to downgrade many of our current four stars as compared to having built up the four stars from back in the 1990s.
So, it works both ways and in order to place this INCOMING class into its historical perspective it needs to be compared with other incoming, and not outgoing classes, and we need to somewhat ignore the flaws we see in today's four stars in order to assess them on the same basis as earlier four stars.
What I can say is that numbers do matter, and as this class approaches 30 signees the likelihood that it will surpass the above-mentioned classes (the largest of which was just 25) will significantly increase. After all, arguably our best class ever was the not so highly ranked 1988 class which numbered 29 signees. At the end of the day, many never made an impact (remember John Woodlock, D.J. Brown, Levitius Johnson, and Bill Schaffer?-probably not), but many did (Elvis Grbac, Steve Everitt, Jon Vaughn, Joe Cocozzo, Chris Huchinson, Doug Skene, Corwin Brown, Maritn Davis, Rob Doherty and a certain Desmond Howard).
Also keep in mind that in earlier days when players were not being processed out of the system signing a large class (25+) was quite rare, even in the days of 95 and even 105 scholarship limits. I have a feeling that under Harbaugh the days of periodically bringing in classes of 20 or less and usually being somewhere between 20 and 25 are over. As more players are flushed through and, in many cases, out of the system, they will need to be replenished with more signees. The SEC has been doing this over the past decade, one of the reasons (there are others) why Big Ten schools are not ranked as highly in recruiting rankings as in the past. If year in and year out a 23 man Big Ten class is being compared to a 30+ SEC class, the SEC class will come out on the top. This year, it works to Michigan's advantage. And it will in years ahead as the players cycle through the system much more quickly. I would not be surprised to see Michigan bring in 25+ kids virtually every year under Harbaugh.
In addition to the large class size (30ish) we also need to account for the PWO program that is rolling into gear. So far about 11-12 kids are confirmed PWOs. I have never seen so many in my life. I would imagine a couple could be contributors. the others will by cycled out of the program to bring in the next wave of PWOs.
As an aside, speaking of PWOs, the total scholarship limit is 105 but this just applies to fall camp. after school starts or the team has played its first game there is no limit to roster size. So current PWOs may not necessarily be flushed out of a future roster spot, however only the 2o best will be invited to pre-season camp and since over half of those will be incoming freshman PWOs some current roster members will have to wait until September to put on the pads.
A suggestion to Jim Harbaugh, who is used to moving mountains to get things done. Michigan's fall semester began in 2015 on September 7. Push for the administration to move the start of the semester up by at least a week, preferably two or three. So what if the entire student body would have to start school in mid to late August. Look at the positives. The roster could already expand to 150 by mid-August, plenty of room to bring in tons of new PWOs. Try that one out on President Schlissel. LOL
So, this class will number about 30 plus over a dozen PWOs. 42ish players in one year. Lots of four stars and three stars. the one negative being not really so top-heavy in five stars (Rashan Gary, hopefully). Also hurts to not have more OLs, but no class is perfect.
If we close with the likes of Rashan Gary, Levert Hill, Quinn Nordin, Nate Johnson, Victor Viramontes and two of Connor Murphy, Devin Asiasi and Boss Tagaloa, we are looking at a class for the ages.
- Hearing that Michigan has offered a stud TE from Concord De La Salle (CA) and taking a look at a talented lineman by the name of Tagaloa. Also hearing that they will not be deciding for a long time and are wide-open. Devi Asiasi and Boss Tagaloa? No. I'm talking about stud freshman TE Isaiah Foskey (6-4, 205, '19) who played up a level on the JV team along with classmate Beaux Tagaloa (5-11, 275, DT, '19). Beaux is the younger brother of Boss. Isaiah is a complete stud and was offered by Kansas as an 8th-grader. Michigan is his second offer. Word is that Boss Tagaloa's younger brother recently had open-heart surgery. I am not sure if that is Beaux or if he has another brother, but if Boss decides to stay close to home due to that it is perfectly understandable.
- Speaking of De La Salle, I just saw that the moist recent crystal ball picks for each of them were in favor of Michigan. We are talking about Ace Anbender of MGoBlog, who predicted both to Michigan at 1:00 am this morning and Lars Hanson of the Washington Insider, who crystal-balled Asiasi to Michigan. Also hearing that at least one USC insider thuinks that both are headed out-of-state. That being said, I think UCLA is the main competition for both and they will be tough pulls in getting them to leave home. I would go 50% on Asiasi and a touch under for Tagaloa. Would be nice, though, to start building a pipeline at De La Salle, especially considering those talented freshman.
- I must be living in some sort of an alternative universe. Am I the only person who has never heard of Ric Flair? I confess that my wrestling acumen is limited to the troika of Dick the Bruiser, Bobo Brazil and Hulk Hogan, which perhaps is more a reflection of my vintage than any interest in non-Olympic wrestling that I may possess.
- As we approach Signing Day and have entered the dead period it has been yet another roller coaster ride when it comes to commitments, de-commitments and figuring out who we will land and who we will miss out on. One thing is certain, Michigan fans have never experienced a roller coaster anything quite like this one. As Harbaugh and staff march towards a class of approximately 30 signees, there have clearly been more ups than downs. Nevertheless, every class, even our very best classes, have at least one or two late misses that make fans feel as though they did not quite reach full expectations. It happens every year. So if we lose out on a Jordan Elliott or Devefry Hamilton here and there, it is the norm. What would really be a kick in the gut would be to finish second on Rashan Gary come Wednesday. We can pretty much live with virtually anyone else- Hill, the California kids, etc....-deciding to go elsewhere. But Gary, the first consensus number one ranked prospect as per the four main services in history (albeit it a relatively short history), is a must get and the crown jewel to what would be one of the best Michigan recruiting classes in decades. I am more than cautiously optimistic and virtually have him penciled into the class. If he were to go elsewhere I don't think there will EVER have been a miss quite like with him. So lets keep our fingers crossed for Wednesday.
- So where does this class stack up with the very best classes that Michigan has recruited over the past forty years? I will reserve judgement on that until I see how we close, but time-permitting I will try and put together a detailed analysis later this month. That being said, as a little preview the hoighest ranked classes (top 2-3 nationally that I can recall are the following classes:
1981 (25 signees): Four and five stars included the likes of Greg Washington, Eric Kattus, Brad Cochran, Clay Miller, Rick Rogers, Kevin Brooks, Brian Mercer, Bruce Brown, Joe Gray, Mike Hammerstein and Jeff Akers. The class did not quite turn out to be as strong as its initial rankings, in part due to a lack of true difference-makers.
1986 (24 signees): This was a loaded class which included the likes of five star talents such as Warde Manuel and Greg McMurty, an amazing 7 RB recruits (Allen Jefferson, Huemartin Robinson, David Key, Tracy Williams, Tony Boles, Leroy Hoard, Jarrod Bunch) and consensus prep AAs such as the late Vada Murray, T.J. Osman, and Trey Walker along with several other four star types (Tom Dohring, Marc Spencer, Tim Williams). Some of the under-the-radar kids were better than advertised: Chris Calloway, Mike Teeter and Jarrod Bunch. A really special and deep class.
1991 (20 signees): Not a very big class but loaded with talent such as five-star Tyrone Wheatley, and all-americans Trent Zenkewicz, Joe Marinaro, Jason Horn, Tree Jenkins, Che' Foster, Walter Reggans, Jamie Mignon and Deollo Anderson. Thjere were some busts in there, but coming in it was a highly rated class.
1993 (24 signees): Lots of talent coming into this class, but also HUGE attrition. Two of key contributors actually ended up being walk-ons (Brian Griese and Eric Mayes) and another was a virtually unknown Canadian (Tshimanga Biakabutuka). The highest profile signees were Trevor Pryce, Clarence Thompson, J.J. Brown, Will Carr, Damon Denson, Glen Steele, Mike Elston, Zach Adami, Rob Swett, Scott Loeffler, Seth Smith and Jon Ritchie. Lots of talent, and much of it transferred out too soon (Pryce, Ritchie) or had other issues (Thompson). Fifth-years won a national title.
1998 (19 signees): Coming off a national title Michigan put together a top-heavy class with at least four players who would be considered five stars (Drew Henson- the first to commit back in December 1996, Justin Fargas, David Terrell, Marquise Walker) and several other national top 100 types in Larry Foote, Victor Hobson, Walter Cross, Cato June and Dave Armstrong. Hayden Epstein was the top kicker in the nation while kids like Bennie Joppru, Evan Coleman, Dave Petruziello, Julius Curry and Dan Rumishek were national top 250 types. Problem with this class was its relatively small size (numbers do matter) and lack of linemen, especially on the OL (Just Joe Denay among signees, although Petruziello eventually moved over from the DL).
2001 (20 signees): After a couple of disappointing classes Llloyd Carr became aggressive and this was the first class where Michigan loaded up on verbals very early, as in before senior season. Not a huge class, but a lot of star power. Kelly Baraka, Marlon Jackson, Pat Massey and Enest Shazor were all five-stare types. Tim Massaquoi, Adam Stenavich, Scott McClintock, David Underwood, and Pierre Woods were all highly rated. Best player turned out to be a two star-Braylon Edwards.
2003 (19 signees): Another pretty top heavy class with the likes of Lamarr Woodley, Prescott Burgess, Shawn Crable, Ryan Mundy and Jake Long (by Signing Day people knew he was a stud). Will Paul was a bust. Leon Hall, Adam Kraus, Clayton Richard and Jeff Zuttah among the many other highly rated kids.
2004 (22 signees): Chad Hennes was the crown jewel, but Max Martin, Brett Gallimore, Jeremy Ciulla, Doug Dutch, Tim Jamison, Alan Branch, Adrian Arrington, Will Johnson and Morgan Trent were among the other highly rated kids. Best of bunch ended up being lowly three star RB Mike Hart.
2005(23 signees): I've gotta say that Lloyd recruited at a very high level during most of his tenure, and 2005 was no exception. Some busts though in this class. Stars included Kevin Grady, Antonio Bass, Mario Manningham, Marques Slocum, Justin Schifano, James McKinney, Cory Zirbel, Terrance Taylor, Eugene Germany and Carson Butler.
So that brings us to the Class of 2016. How will this class stack up from a historical perspective? In assessing this we of course have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to the earlier classes. We know which blue-chippers lived up to expectations and which ones failed. And there will inevitably be prospects who fail. It is the nature of competition. Only 22 starting spots for 85 scholarship athletes.
However, also keep in mind that we also know a lot more about the relative ceilings of our current four and three stars than we did back in the day. Direct access to video enables even the average recruiting fan to see the flaws in four stars that we were not able to see back about ten years ago. Back then fans had to have blind faith in recruiting analysts' ratings/rankings. Now they can see a lot of game film for themselves. what this means to me is that I see the flaws and potential ceiling in a player such as Dylan Crawford or Kareem Walker, something I would not have seen 15 years ago. So, in a sense, I tend to downgrade many of our current four stars as compared to having built up the four stars from back in the 1990s.
So, it works both ways and in order to place this INCOMING class into its historical perspective it needs to be compared with other incoming, and not outgoing classes, and we need to somewhat ignore the flaws we see in today's four stars in order to assess them on the same basis as earlier four stars.
What I can say is that numbers do matter, and as this class approaches 30 signees the likelihood that it will surpass the above-mentioned classes (the largest of which was just 25) will significantly increase. After all, arguably our best class ever was the not so highly ranked 1988 class which numbered 29 signees. At the end of the day, many never made an impact (remember John Woodlock, D.J. Brown, Levitius Johnson, and Bill Schaffer?-probably not), but many did (Elvis Grbac, Steve Everitt, Jon Vaughn, Joe Cocozzo, Chris Huchinson, Doug Skene, Corwin Brown, Maritn Davis, Rob Doherty and a certain Desmond Howard).
Also keep in mind that in earlier days when players were not being processed out of the system signing a large class (25+) was quite rare, even in the days of 95 and even 105 scholarship limits. I have a feeling that under Harbaugh the days of periodically bringing in classes of 20 or less and usually being somewhere between 20 and 25 are over. As more players are flushed through and, in many cases, out of the system, they will need to be replenished with more signees. The SEC has been doing this over the past decade, one of the reasons (there are others) why Big Ten schools are not ranked as highly in recruiting rankings as in the past. If year in and year out a 23 man Big Ten class is being compared to a 30+ SEC class, the SEC class will come out on the top. This year, it works to Michigan's advantage. And it will in years ahead as the players cycle through the system much more quickly. I would not be surprised to see Michigan bring in 25+ kids virtually every year under Harbaugh.
In addition to the large class size (30ish) we also need to account for the PWO program that is rolling into gear. So far about 11-12 kids are confirmed PWOs. I have never seen so many in my life. I would imagine a couple could be contributors. the others will by cycled out of the program to bring in the next wave of PWOs.
As an aside, speaking of PWOs, the total scholarship limit is 105 but this just applies to fall camp. after school starts or the team has played its first game there is no limit to roster size. So current PWOs may not necessarily be flushed out of a future roster spot, however only the 2o best will be invited to pre-season camp and since over half of those will be incoming freshman PWOs some current roster members will have to wait until September to put on the pads.
A suggestion to Jim Harbaugh, who is used to moving mountains to get things done. Michigan's fall semester began in 2015 on September 7. Push for the administration to move the start of the semester up by at least a week, preferably two or three. So what if the entire student body would have to start school in mid to late August. Look at the positives. The roster could already expand to 150 by mid-August, plenty of room to bring in tons of new PWOs. Try that one out on President Schlissel. LOL
So, this class will number about 30 plus over a dozen PWOs. 42ish players in one year. Lots of four stars and three stars. the one negative being not really so top-heavy in five stars (Rashan Gary, hopefully). Also hurts to not have more OLs, but no class is perfect.
If we close with the likes of Rashan Gary, Levert Hill, Quinn Nordin, Nate Johnson, Victor Viramontes and two of Connor Murphy, Devin Asiasi and Boss Tagaloa, we are looking at a class for the ages.
