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Football Big Picture Thoughts . . . .

LosAngelesWolverine

Michigan Man
Jan 9, 2002
23,097
26,712
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1. I've been very impressed with the way our defensive line has played this year. Chris Hinton is really coming into his own, Mazi Smith has done a solid job as a first-year starter, and guys like Mike Morris and Kris Jenkins are playing well. Ojabo looks like the next Josh Uche out there, and Hutch is obviously a superstar. Once the scheme got fixed, it looks like Shaun Nua can coach. I think the future of the DL is very bright - all of these guys except Hutch should return, Rooks, McGregor, TJ Guy, and Benny will get into the mix in the future, and the DT recruiting this year has been strong so far (hopefully we can still land Walker too).

2. Similarly, the offensive line play has been very good. Kudos to Sherrone Moore.

3. Defensively, we still have experience and athleticism issues at linebacker, and our corners are what they are - fine in this scheme, but not great cover guys. Adding Will Johnson, Myles Pollard, and (hopefully) Domani Jackson to this group will be the reason why we might be able to beat OSU in the years to come.

4. Brad Hawkins had two outstanding plays Saturday - forcing Martinez out of bounds to stop Nebraska on fourth down and goal, and of course the strip on the fumble. It's nice to see a senior really make some big plays.

5. I'm in the middle on the McNamara/McCarthy discussion. I do believe McNamara is a good QB, plenty good enough to start for most teams in the Big Ten (Minnesota, probably Wisconsin (Mertz is more talented, but a turnover machine), Indiana (now that Penix is awful), Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, probably Maryland (Tua's younger brother is also a TO machine), heck probably even Iowa.

6. McNamara is like the 1997 version of Brian Griese. He generally throws a nice deep ball, though he did miss a few against Nebraska (Griese threw a nice deep ball too - see the Rose Bowl throws to Tai Streets), but we don't ask him to do a ton. Right now, for example, we have 7 TD passes on the year (two of those from JJ), and 21 rushing TDs. Cade's completion percentage is 60.4%, which is solid. He does get his footwork mixed up at times, which leads to incompletions on shorter throws that you would hope he could make. With that said, we're down Bell and Wilson, and the receivers haven't always helped him out either.

7. Can you with a national title like that? In other words, great defense, great running game, good but "controlled" passing? Maybe. Give us Georgia's defense and I'd like our chances. But we don't have Georgia's defense. Moreover, I come back to this - the teams in recent years (dating back to the 2016 title game played in January 2017) have had star QBs - Watson, Tua, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones. And the receivers on those teams have been elite too.

8. So, I'm pessimistic on whether Cade is capable of winning a national title. Just like I was with a guy like Ian Book, who was still a very good college QB. The same way I've been doubtful Sean Clifford could do it.

9. Of course, we take these things one year at a time. What makes it difficult this year is at least three things. First, this might be our best opportunity to beat OSU in awhile, as their defense hasn't looked good, they have a first year starting QB, and we get them at home. But I still think we'll need to score 35+ to do it. I'm confident we'll run on them, but also confident they'll stack the box and make us throw. Can Cade get that done? Second, while we'll likely return all of our offense next year and most of our defense, we're going to lose Hutch, Dax, and Ross. Those guys are studs. So this defense, while somewhat flawed, will still have key pieces to replace next year. That makes beating OSU this year perhaps more likely from a defensive perspective too. Third, and here's the real rub, JJ for the most part has looked really good. When we played Drew Henson as a true freshman, his talent level looked off the charts but he was raw. Chad Henne? Up and down to start his career (had a great running game, good defense, and excellent receivers around him), but then settled in and had a really good freshman year, culminating with a Big Ten championship (but a loss to OSU) and a very strong performance against Texas in the Rose Bowl. JJ might have more natural talent than Henne. The arm looks as good (maybe slightly weaker), he seems just as accurate if not more, and he's far more mobile. Who knows? Or maybe not. And as an aside, if Guts had started as planned, would the Guts/Henne debate be like the Cade/JJ one right now, as Guts to me was pretty similar in skill set to Cade.

10. My conclusion is the same as it was yesterday - continue starting McNamara, get McCarthy some meaningful reps when you can (especially throwing the ball), and be ready to turn to JJ if you fall down 10+ points in a game somewhere and Cade is struggling. In other words, Cade is the starter but he's not so entrenched that if he struggles, you shouldn't consider making a change (for one game, at least). Not unlike the ND situation this year, frankly.

11. Finally, here's something interesting. We know Nebraska lost on the road to MSU 23-20, after having the game in hand. The team stats are quite interesting. Nebraska outgained MSU 442-254, had 26 first downs to MSU's 12, and held Walker to 61 yards on 19 carries, while holding Thorne to 183 passing yards on 14-23. (MSU did have seven sacks, which is impressive).

12. I tend to think MSU will be a dogfight, for whatever reason I think we can beat PSU (and let's see how serious Clifford's injury is, if they have to play a backup QB that changes the equation a lot), but OSU's passing game continues to make me think that game may not be all that close unless we can play successful Lloyd-ball (run, grind clock). But I still don't see us winning without scoring 35+ and hitting some big throws.

13. In all likelihood, I see us competing for a Big Ten title (which, in essence, means being in contention for a playoff spot too) two years from now, when JJ is likely in his second year of starting, a guy like Colson is a stud junior linebacker, and guys like Will Johnson and hopefully Domani Jackson are studs in our secondary. Can the fan base wait that long? We may have no choice. And if this year is a 9-3 year, and next year a 10-2 year, that's fine.

14. We essentially now have two bye weeks - a real bye this week, and NW next week. It will be interesting to see if any teams ahead of us lose (seems likely someone will).

14. Finally (I know I said that before), before the year we discussed whether Michigan would have a 1,000 yard rusher. Well, after six games, Corum has 610 yards and Haskins 492. Maybe we'll have two.
 
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