Where does Michigan end up?

[tarun262]

Just saw the Playoff rankings and we are #14 with 4 weeks of games still left. A lot of teams ahead of us also still play each other including:

Oklahoma State plays Baylor and Oklahoma
Oklahoma plays TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma
Stanford and Notre Dame play each other (go Cardinals)
Florida likely plays Alabama and they still play Florida State
Clemson has no tough games remaining really so they should stay at #1 for sure
Utah will likely have to play Stanford in the PAC championship

The biggest game for Michigan really will be the MSU/OSU game. If MSU wins, Michigan's chances of a BIG game or potentially even playoffs is pretty much done. However, if OSU wins their next 2 games as does Michigan and Michigan then goes on to beat #3 OSU and #5 Iowa in back-to-back weeks I expect we will jump drastically in the polls. There is still hope

Basically here is what I think we need:

• Stanford beats Notre Dame
• Arizona beats Utah
• Utah beats Stanford in championship game
• Florida loses to FSU or Alabama
• OKlahoma loses to TCU
• Oklahoma State loses to Baylor
• Baylor loses to Oklahoma
• MSU loses to Ohio State
• Michigan wins out and plays an undefeated Iowa team in the BIG

If all those things happen I think there is a good chance Michigan somehow sneaks in. We will certainly be the best 2 loss team in the country and committee will always reward teams that win their own championship. Only kink is Utah will have a claim to be better then us given their H2H record with us. I also think a 1 loss Big 12 team like Baylor and Oklahoma State would end up getting left out because of their SOS. Throw in a couple other upsets potentially in there (UCLA perhaps beating Utah, LSU losing somehow) and we will be sitting pretty.

If all the above ended up happening my prediction would be:

Alabama, LSU, Clemson and a toss up between Michigan and Utah for the 4th spot Either way onwards and upwards to Indiana.

#wishful thinking...Go blue!

 

[michnittlion]

Sounds good ......... but I'll believe that a 0-or-1-loss Big XII Champion gets left out for some other team that has MORE losses when I see it.

Politics matter. All 12 people on the committee are politicians, in 1 way or another. The Texas Tech AD is on the committee. He'll have his marching orders from his Big XII colleagues.

Barry Alvarez is on the committee too --- I'm sure Alvarez was a strong advocate for OSU over TCU and Baylor in 2014 (no doubt Alvarez had HIS marching orders). "Quid pro quos" are a real thing among political folk.

 

[tarun262]

The BIG 12 is weak except for the Top 4 teams. Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are not great teams. There is a chance that a 0 loss BIG 12 team could still get left out. If Bama, ND or Stanford, Clemson and Iowa or OSU win out those will be the 4 in the playoffs.

Based on the BIG 12 games I have seen though, I don't see how anyone hangs with Oklahoma State - they will end up smacking both Oklahoma and Baylor and will have the strongest case.

I love the Playoffs format personally but I think they need to make a couple changes:

1. All Power 5 teams need a conference championship game to qualify (mandatory)
2. You can't make the Playoffs unless you win your conference championship (why should LSU get a 2nd try against Alabama when they could not beat them).
3. If you want to not do #2 then go with 8 team Playoffs where you have the 5 Power 5 champions in for sure and 3 wild card teams that rankings can then decide on.

This will force teams like Notre Dame to finally commit to a conference versus doing their own thing.

 

[michnittlion]

The BIG 12 is weak except for the Top 4 teams. Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are not great teams. There is a chance that a 0 loss BIG 12 team could still get left out. If Bama, ND or Stanford, Clemson and Iowa or OSU win out those will be the 4 in the playoffs.

Based on the BIG 12 games I have seen though, I don't see how anyone hangs with Oklahoma State - they will end up smacking both Oklahoma and Baylor and will have the strongest case.

I love the Playoffs format personally but I think they need to make a couple changes:

1. All Power 5 teams need a conference championship game to qualify (mandatory)
2. You can't make the Playoffs unless you win your conference championship (why should LSU get a 2nd try against Alabama when they could not beat them).
3. If you want to not do #2 then go with 8 team Playoffs where you have the 5 Power 5 champions in for sure and 3 wild card teams that rankings can then decide on.

This will force teams like Notre Dame to finally commit to a conference versus doing their own thing.

Unfortunately, none of your #1, #2, or #3 will happen any time soon:

(1) and (2) there are too many politically powerful people opposed to those ideas. Big XII and ND opposed to #1, SEC and likely the B1G opposed to #2.

(3) we're committed to this 4-team playoff through 2025.

While a 4-team playoff is better than the old 2-team "playoff", one thing I hate is that we've actually INCREASED the degree to which politics matter in the process and we've DECREASED the level of transparency in the selection process. In the old system, it was a formula: computers matter this much, polls (that involve hundreds of people in aggregate) matter this much. The computers sometimes had a wide variation in opinion but the formula threw out the outliers, which was a good thing.

Now, we only have 12 people who have no accountability and give no transparency why they choose who they choose.

Shoot, even the fact that we have these weekly rankings --- which are utterly useless and needless, of course, given the season doesn't end any time prior to December 5th --- is politically driven.

A primary reason for the weekly rankings is for the 12 committee members to get together in Dallas and have a bunch of fancy dinners and stay in nice hotels and get to talk to each other. No doubt that "talking" involves long-term horse trading and positioning for December 6th, the only rankings that matter anyway.

Yes, I'm a cynic about this whole thing. I honestly wish we'd keep the 4-team playoff but completely ditch the committee and just go back to the computers and old BCS formula to choose the 4 teams.

 

[tarun262]

Never say never - it could very well happen. At some point this will have to get fixed. Take OSU for instance - if they had started the season ranked #30 they would ranked somewhere around #7 or #8 but instead their preseason bias is kicking in. You could argue that Oklahoma State is a better team (better SOS, better victories, etc) but because they started so low they are not even considered a playoff team right now. Heck on the OSU schedule so far only 3 teams have a winning record!!! Iowa is better team if you take pure stats, etc. But the program is built full of biases. Biases of former coaches, committee members, etc. I do think the current Playoff format will and has to change in the coming years.

Let's say Oklahoma State goes undefeated the rest of the way as does TCU and Stanford. Let's also assume MSU wins out and UNC somehow beats Clemson in the ACC championship game:

• UNC will have lost to a terrible South Carolina team
• Stanford lost to a NW team the first week of the season that NW will end up being a Top 20 team
• Oklahoma State should get in as #1 no question
• TCU will have lost to the #2 team in the country, no shame in that
• MSU will have lost to crappy Nebraska team so they would likely be out
• Alabama will have lost to a below average Ole Miss team
• LSU will have lost to Alabama so they should not be in the conversation
• What about Houston if they go undefeated??? Do they get in?

If that scenario does happen, there will be a lot of push with the current system, no question. Logic says the 4 teams should be Oklahoma State, Stanford (lost to a Top 20 team), Alabama, & Houston but I guarantee that won't happen.

Either way, it'll be messy and I am just hopeful this changes.

 

[michigangoblue999]

How quickly can this thing be expanded to 8 teams?

 

[michnittlion]

How quickly can this thing be expanded to 8 teams?

Can't imagine it happening prior to 2026. Two big impediments as I see it:

(1) Last week, they selected the sites for the final through January 2020. Those dates are essentially set in stone now.

I don't see ANY way to logistically squeeze in a 3rd round of playoffs between the conference championship game and that final. Shoot, in January 2019, the final is on the 7th --- that's pretty darn early.

(2) In theory, you could move back the final til late January, play the semis in mid-January, and the quarterfinals on NYD. The problem is that the contracts guarantee the Rose, Peach, Orange, Sugar, Cotton and Fiesta Bowls semifinals on either NYE or NYD 1 year out of 3. They won't be on board with their games behind "reduced" to quaterfinals. And they definitely won't be on board with the games being moved off of NYE or NYD.

 

[michigangoblue999]

Can't imagine it happening prior to 2026.

D'oh!

 

[St. Joe Blue 3]

Rose Bowl, vs. Utah.

 

[ChicagoBlueFan]

The BIG 12 is weak except for the Top 4 teams. Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU are not great teams. There is a chance that a 0 loss BIG 12 team could still get left out. If Bama, ND or Stanford, Clemson and Iowa or OSU win out those will be the 4 in the playoffs.

Based on the BIG 12 games I have seen though, I don't see how anyone hangs with Oklahoma State - they will end up smacking both Oklahoma and Baylor and will have the strongest case.

I love the Playoffs format personally but I think they need to make a couple changes:

1. All Power 5 teams need a conference championship game to qualify (mandatory)
2. You can't make the Playoffs unless you win your conference championship (why should LSU get a 2nd try against Alabama when they could not beat them).
3. If you want to not do #2 then go with 8 team Playoffs where you have the 5 Power 5 champions in for sure and 3 wild card teams that rankings can then decide on.

This will force teams like Notre Dame to finally commit to a conference versus doing their own thing.

Alabama won an NC without even winning their DIVISION, let alone the SEC.
They love to use that "eye test" term, which means that on field results don't always matter.
That was the year that America was apparently clamoring for an LSU-Alabama rematch.
Previously, when UM didn't get a rematch vs TUOS, rematches were BAD. Give someone else a chance.

 

[tarun262]

Alabama won an NC without even winning their DIVISION, let alone the SEC.
They love to use that "eye test" term, which means that on field results don't always matter.
That was the year that America was apparently clamoring for an LSU-Alabama rematch.
Previously, when UM didn't get a rematch vs TUOS, rematches were BAD. Give someone else a chance.

Playoffs did not exist when Bama won. This is just my opinion - but at the end of the day money talks you know. I am sure the Playoff committee knows that getting Houston or Oklahoma State in there adds no value but getting folks like Ohio State, Alabama, have massive payouts. Who knows what goes on there - it's a big black hole. I think what the NFL or MLB does makes sense - where basically all division champs are automatically in and for CFB you just need to do that for the Power 5 conferences and have 3 wild cards. Either way, I am just hoping all the teams ahead of us lost at least 1 if not 2 games - would love to see Michigan miraculously make it there!

 

[BuckeyeNut69]

Playoffs did not exist when Bama won. This is just my opinion - but at the end of the day money talks you know. I am sure the Playoff committee knows that getting Houston or Oklahoma State in there adds no value but getting folks like Ohio State, Alabama, have massive payouts. Who knows what goes on there - it's a big black hole. I think what the NFL or MLB does makes sense - where basically all division champs are automatically in and for CFB you just need to do that for the Power 5 conferences and have 3 wild cards. Either way, I am just hoping all the teams ahead of us lost at least 1 if not 2 games - would love to see Michigan miraculously make it there!

Totally agree with the money aspect of your post. The playoff game attendance and tv ratings are part of determining factor in this. The blue blood programs are where the money is at. They have tons of alumni willing to travel to watch 2 and sometimes 3 playoff games if you include the conference championship games. The thing I like about the 4 team playoff and college football in general is it's do or die every Saturday. The most you can lose is 1 game and you better lose early. My stomach will be in knots Nov. 28th knowing if we lose to you guys our chances of being in the playoff is probably gone. That's what I love about college football.

 

[wolverines74]

This to much for me t think about knowing Jesus said to worry about today and let tomorrow worry about itself. I just want us to focus on the IU game Saturday. A very big and important game . IU is no joke offensively and We'd better be ready and get them e and out a multiple of times with a plethora of Turnovers. ( Poncho, do you know what a Plethora is ? " ( from 3 Amigos ) "74