1) It's an interesting time of the year because though each team has played three games, you're still not 100% sure who you're facing, Rutgers being the perfect example. On paper, this looks like a much-improved defense. The Scarlet Knights are a Top 20 unit overall (15th), though only in low 40s in rush defense for both YPG and YPC. They're No. 12 in yards per attempt (5.2) allowed and No. 2 nationally in opponent completion percentage (46.4). But who have they played? Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Temple is one of college football's worst offenses so far. Syracuse is 34th but they got a huge bump after putting up 650+ yards against a FCS foe last week. Delaware is Delaware. So we have no idea if Rutgers will be a stiff test or not.
Rutgers put up a better fight in 2020 than they had in the previous decade prior. You'd expect that from Greg Schiano. Guy has a lot of pride and has had a lot of success in his life. As the favorite son, he's also given that program a confidence boost they haven't had since he left in 2011. But this is still the 15th most talented team (Michigan) vs. No. 70 and I don't think last year was an indication of how close (or how far away) these two programs still are. In that respect, I still expect Michigan to win convincingly.
2) Delaware just put up 4.7 yards per carry against this Rutgers team so while I remain a big believer in passing to gain experience and confidence going into Madison, I would expect Saturday to follow a similar formula to Northern Illinois with a 70-30 run-to-pass ratio. I'm good with that because of how special Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins are. I've gushed about them a few weeks in a row now and there's no reason to stop. Corum's ability to accelerate in a short burst as he's darting outside is special because what you've seen are defenders that can't move sideline to sideline as quickly as he can get upfield. What will be interesting is if some of those defensive backs figure out some sense and start playing a better angle, willing to give him 8-10 yards to prevent the 60-yarders. It may not matter because his speed is that electric but I expect coaches to hammer this into their defenders in coming weeks.
I was asked today what's a number I want to see in the ground game to feel pretty good about Michigan heading into Madison. Realistically, I said 250+ yards, better than 5.0 YPC (Michigan has gone 7.8, 6.1 and 7.8 in its three games). You do that against an opponent that 100% knows it's coming and has dedicated every practice to stopping the run (and at least has more talent than an NIU), that's a great sign.
3) There was an interesting post on The Fort this week about switching to JJ because he brings greater upside to the position. I would normally see the argument, but this has not been a great year for QBs in the Big Ten so far. Sean Clifford from Penn State has been efficient (that's the word I'd use to describe Thorne at MSU too) but to me, there's no superstar QBs this season. You have some above average talents and some average quarterbacks. So while I have long advocated that you had to have a great QB to win and that quarterback had to be the biggest difference-maker on the field, I don't think that argument holds up in 2021, at least not right now. Iowa and Penn State look like defense-first teams. MSU has Walker at RB. Ohio State will probably shift more responsibility to its ground game too. This is a year where great defense, great running games and smart, steady QB play wins the league. That's not to say Cade McNamara can throw for 150 per game and U-M comes out on top. There will be some moments he'll have to do more than that, but in the big matchups remaining - at Wisconsin, at MSU, at Penn State, vs. OSU - which ones are you saying "McNamara has to be the best player on the field for Michigan to win?" Maybe only Penn State, and I'm not sure even there.
In that vein, I just want to see continued growth from McNamara. They connected on 1 of 4 deep balls against NIU. Even then I thought Baldwin should have had his and Cornelius Johnson appeared to let up during his route on one. Just keep taking those shots and find some more big plays, be efficient, don't make mistakes, and let the running game do its thing.
4) Maybe this is arrogance, but Rutgers doesn't have a single player offensively that scares me. They looked pedestrian against Temple and downright bad against Syracuse (195 yards of offense, 2.79 yards per play). This is an offense U-M should handle.
5) One more - special teams encore. I think AJ Henning returns a punt return for a TD this weekend. Michigan will get enough stops defensively that he should have 4-5 opportunities. What I liked last week is he gets north-south very quickly. Too many returnmen try to go sideways to get around players. A friend of mine coaches ST in high school and he notes that when you go sideways you can spread a coverage unit out but when you go upfield, within the first 10 yards, you've already made the gunners and the early releasers irrelevant and so now you're staring at 6-7 defenders. If you can avoid the scrum where players are massing, you have a chance for a big return. Henning seemed to do all that naturally last weekend.
Rutgers put up a better fight in 2020 than they had in the previous decade prior. You'd expect that from Greg Schiano. Guy has a lot of pride and has had a lot of success in his life. As the favorite son, he's also given that program a confidence boost they haven't had since he left in 2011. But this is still the 15th most talented team (Michigan) vs. No. 70 and I don't think last year was an indication of how close (or how far away) these two programs still are. In that respect, I still expect Michigan to win convincingly.
2) Delaware just put up 4.7 yards per carry against this Rutgers team so while I remain a big believer in passing to gain experience and confidence going into Madison, I would expect Saturday to follow a similar formula to Northern Illinois with a 70-30 run-to-pass ratio. I'm good with that because of how special Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins are. I've gushed about them a few weeks in a row now and there's no reason to stop. Corum's ability to accelerate in a short burst as he's darting outside is special because what you've seen are defenders that can't move sideline to sideline as quickly as he can get upfield. What will be interesting is if some of those defensive backs figure out some sense and start playing a better angle, willing to give him 8-10 yards to prevent the 60-yarders. It may not matter because his speed is that electric but I expect coaches to hammer this into their defenders in coming weeks.
I was asked today what's a number I want to see in the ground game to feel pretty good about Michigan heading into Madison. Realistically, I said 250+ yards, better than 5.0 YPC (Michigan has gone 7.8, 6.1 and 7.8 in its three games). You do that against an opponent that 100% knows it's coming and has dedicated every practice to stopping the run (and at least has more talent than an NIU), that's a great sign.
3) There was an interesting post on The Fort this week about switching to JJ because he brings greater upside to the position. I would normally see the argument, but this has not been a great year for QBs in the Big Ten so far. Sean Clifford from Penn State has been efficient (that's the word I'd use to describe Thorne at MSU too) but to me, there's no superstar QBs this season. You have some above average talents and some average quarterbacks. So while I have long advocated that you had to have a great QB to win and that quarterback had to be the biggest difference-maker on the field, I don't think that argument holds up in 2021, at least not right now. Iowa and Penn State look like defense-first teams. MSU has Walker at RB. Ohio State will probably shift more responsibility to its ground game too. This is a year where great defense, great running games and smart, steady QB play wins the league. That's not to say Cade McNamara can throw for 150 per game and U-M comes out on top. There will be some moments he'll have to do more than that, but in the big matchups remaining - at Wisconsin, at MSU, at Penn State, vs. OSU - which ones are you saying "McNamara has to be the best player on the field for Michigan to win?" Maybe only Penn State, and I'm not sure even there.
In that vein, I just want to see continued growth from McNamara. They connected on 1 of 4 deep balls against NIU. Even then I thought Baldwin should have had his and Cornelius Johnson appeared to let up during his route on one. Just keep taking those shots and find some more big plays, be efficient, don't make mistakes, and let the running game do its thing.
4) Maybe this is arrogance, but Rutgers doesn't have a single player offensively that scares me. They looked pedestrian against Temple and downright bad against Syracuse (195 yards of offense, 2.79 yards per play). This is an offense U-M should handle.
5) One more - special teams encore. I think AJ Henning returns a punt return for a TD this weekend. Michigan will get enough stops defensively that he should have 4-5 opportunities. What I liked last week is he gets north-south very quickly. Too many returnmen try to go sideways to get around players. A friend of mine coaches ST in high school and he notes that when you go sideways you can spread a coverage unit out but when you go upfield, within the first 10 yards, you've already made the gunners and the early releasers irrelevant and so now you're staring at 6-7 defenders. If you can avoid the scrum where players are massing, you have a chance for a big return. Henning seemed to do all that naturally last weekend.
